Consensus - Investor relations

consensus

Current investment recommendations for Bank Pekao S.A. shares

Consensus of expectations for 1Q'25

The following table presents consensus estimates for key P&L items based on most current estimates developed by equity analysts covering stock of Bank Pekao. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding financial performance of Bank Pekao made by analysts are their sole discretion and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Bank Pekao or its Management Board.

 

1Q'25
consensus based on 14 analysts
change y/y change q/q
P&L (PLN mn) average median max min 1Q'24 net % 4Q'24 net %
Revenue 4145 4157 4194 4013 3876 269 7% 4349 (204) (5%)
Core revenue 4058 4057 4111 3958 3753 305 8% 4196 (138) (3%)
Net interest income(*) 3354 3358 3402 3258 3085 269 9% 3420 (66) (2%)
F&C 704 702 722 692 688 36 5% 776 (72) (9%)
Other revenues 87 97 70 63 123 (36) (29%) 153 (65) (43%)
Costs  (1650) (1656) (1588) (1691) (1238) (412) 33% (1428) (222) 16%
Operating profit 2495 2498 2556 2353 2638 (143) (5%) 2921 (426) (15%)
Provisons (**) (223) (219) (189) (275) (181) (42) 23% (272) 49 (18%)
FX mortgages (**)  (53) (50) (40) (100) (37) (16) 43% (370) 317 (86%)
Banking Tax (230) (230) (227) (237) (223) (7) 3% (227) (3) 1%
Net Profit 1526,7 1527 1575 1469 1517 10 0,6% 1612 (85) (5,3%)

NOTE:

(*) Net interest income and revenues, without dividends and income from equity investment

Consensus based on 14 forecasts of analysts from: HSBC, Santander CEE Equity Research; Trigon DM S.A.; BM BOŚ; BM Millennium; WOOD & Company; Erste Securities; Citi Research; PKO BM; BoML; Autonomous Research; RBI International, J.P.Morgan and Morgan Stanley.  

(**) Calculated based on components from forecasts.

Last updated on 24.04.2025

Annual Consensus

Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding Bank Pekao S.A. performance made by sell-side analysts are theirs alone and do not represent opinions, forecasts or predictions of Pekao or its Management Board.

Average price target (Last update on 30.01.2025)

PLN 180.22

 

Recommendation Number Share
Buy (Accumulate, Overweight) 10 58.8%
Hold (Neutral, Equal weight) 7 41.2%
Sell (Reduce, Underweight) 0  0.0%
Total 17 100%

Last updated on 30.01.2025

Current market consensus of Bank Pekao S.A. for the years 2025-2026

The following table presents consensus estimates for key P&L as well as balance sheet items based on most current estimates developed by equity analysts covering stock of Bank Pekao. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding financial performance of Bank Pekao made by analysts are their sole discretion and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Bank Pekao or its Management Board.

   

  2025E 2026E
(PLN mn) Median Average Max Min NoF Median Average Max Min NoF

Revenues

15 772 15 864 16 689    14 792 17 15 321 15 410 16 521 14 666 17

  NII

12 665 12 681 13 497 11 508 17 12 017 12 053 13 101 11 374 17

  F&C

2 913 2 948 3 104 2 847 17 3 051 3 075 3 412 2 875 17

Operating costs

(5 899) (5 841) (5 051) (6 069) 17 (6 190) (6 178) (5 354) (6 772) 17

Operating profit

9 873 10 024 11 638 8 723 17 9 131 9 232 11 167 7 894 17

Provisioning

(1006) (998) (581) (1 330) 17 (1036) (1032) (625) (1 276) 17

Net profit

6 101 6 038 6 642 5 358 17 5 445 5 419 6 291 4 788 17
 

Lending growth

7.0% 6.5% 8.6% 5.1% 17 8.1% 6.6% 5.9% 4.7% 16

Deposits growth

5.6% 5.7% 8.5% 5.6% 17 5.0% 5.2% 6.1% 2.3% 16

NOTE: Consensus based on 17 brokers reports published since 18.07.2024

Last updated on  30.01.2025

NoF is the number of forecasts

Operating costs incl. BFG excl. Banking tax

The number of reports included in the consensus may differ from the number of analysts who prepare research on the Bank, due to an outdated forecast date or other reason

Macroeconomic scenario

  2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
GDP, % 0.2 2.9 4.0 3.7
Private consumption, % y/y (0.9) 4.1 3.7 4.0
Investments, % y/y 13.1 0.4 8.6 6.4
Unemployment, % eop 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.5
CPI, % avg 11.4 3.7 4.6 3.5
3M Wibor, % eop 5.88 5.86 4.86 3.61
Reference rate, % eop 5,75 5.75 4.75 3.50
Exchange rate EUR, eop 4.57 4.31 4.33 4.39
Exchange rate USD, eop 3.94 4.18 4.14 4.11
Public sector balance, % GDP (5.1) (5.7) (5.5) (4.7)

 

  2023 2024F(2) 2025F(2) 2026F(2)
Loans, % y/y

0.0

3.1

4.8

5.7

Retail, % y/y

(2.2)

2.6

5.0

6.0

Mortgage loans PLN

2.2

5.1

5.8

5.7

Consumer loans(1)

1.9

6.1

8.0

8.9

Corporate, % y/y

(3.0)

2.5

5.4

6.2

Savings(3), % y/y

0.2

9.7

8.7

8.4

Deposits, % y/y

9.6

7.9

7.4

7.2

Retail, % y/y

11.2

10.3

9.2

8.7

Corporate, % y/y

8.8

3.0

5.0

5.0

Mutual Funds(4), % y/y

29.7

4.0

5.0

5.0

(1) all non-mortgage retail loans
(2) internal scenario
(3) deposits + assets in mutual funds dedicated to retail clients
(4) retail customers assets in investment funds

Last updated on 05.12.2024