Current investment recommendations for Bank Pekao S.A. shares
Consensus of expectations for 1Q'22
The following table presents consensus estimates for key P&L items based on most current estimates developed by equity analysts covering stock of Bank Pekao. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding financial performance of Bank Pekao made by analysts are their sole discretion and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Bank Pekao or its Management Board.
| 1Q'22 consensus based on 14 analyst |
change y/y | change q/q | ||||||||
| P&L (PLN mn) | average | median | max | min | 1Q'21 | net | % | 4Q'21 | net | % |
| Revenue | 2725 | 2737 | 2769 | 2556 | 2000 | 725 | 36% | 2276 | 449 | 20% |
| Core revenue | 2685 | 2699 | 2747 | 2494 | 1950 | 735 | 38% | 2685 | - | 0% |
| Net interest income | 1991 | 2001 | 2060 | 1795 | 1334 | 657 | 49% | 1601 | 390 | 24% |
| F&C | 694 | 694 | 708 | 685 | 616 | 78 | 13% | 695 | (1) | (0%) |
| Other revenues | 44 | 50 | 1 | 76 | 50 | (9) | (19%) | (20) | 60 | (306%) |
| Costs inc. BFG | (1261) | (1255) | (1322) | (1206) | (1247) | (24) | 1% | (905) | (356) | 39% |
| BFG | (292) | (292) | (330) | (234) | (203) | (88) | 43% | (27) | (265) | >100% |
| Costs exc. BFG | (969) | (963) | (1068) | (914) | (1044) | 74 | (7%) | (878) | (91) | 10% |
| Operating profit | 1464 | 1483 | 1447 | 1350 | 753 | 711 | 94% | 1371 | 93 | 7% |
| Operating profit exc. BFG | 1756 | 1774 | 1701 | 1642 | 956 | 800 | 84% | 1398 | 358 | 26% |
| Credit Provisions | (174) | (175) | (209) | (140) | (176) | 2 | (1%) | (232) | 58 | (25%) |
| Banking Tax | (190) | (190) | (199) | (186) | (175) | (15) | 9% | (186) | (4) | 2% |
| Net Profit | 793 | 799 | 880 | 670 | 246 | 547 | 222% | 694 | 99 | 14% |
NOTE: Consensus based on 14 forecasts of analayts from: Santander BM, BM BOŚ, VTB Capital, HSBC Bank, WOOD & Company, Morgan Stanley, Erste Securities, JP Morgan, Trigon DM S.A., PKO BM, Raiffeisen CB, Autonomous Research, BM Millennium and Citi Research.
Last updated on 25.04.2022
Annual Consensus
|
Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding Bank Pekao S.A. performance made by sell-side analysts are theirs alone and do not represent opinions, forecasts or predictions of Pekao or its Management Board. |
Average price target (Last update on 23.06.2022) PLN 137.53 |
| Recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight) | 14 | 73.7% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight) | 4 | 21.1% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight) | 1 | 5.3% |
| Total | 19 | 100% |
Last updated on 23.06.2022
Current market consensus of Bank Pekao S.A. for the years 2022-2023
The following table presents consensus estimates for key P&L as well as balance sheet items based on most current estimates developed by equity analysts covering stock of Bank Pekao. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding financial performance of Bank Pekao made by analysts are their sole discretion and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Bank Pekao or its Management Board.
| 2022E | 2023E | |||||||||
| (PLN mn) | Median | Average | Max | Min | NoF | Median | Average | Max | Min | NoF |
| Revenues | 10 554 | 10 910 | 12 212 | 9 598 | 19 | 11 377 | 11 413 | 13 321 | 10 461 | 19 |
| NII | 7 515 | 7 977 | 9 378 | 6 570 | 19 | 8 105 | 8 342 | 9 939 | 7 281 | 19 |
| F&C | 2 813 | 2 794 | 2 934 | 2 666 | 19 | 2 913 | 2 889 | 3 110 | 2 710 | 19 |
| Operating costs | (4 372) | (4 445) | (4 123) | (5 137) | 19 | (4 538) | (4 570) | (4 201) | (4 922) | 19 |
| Operating profit | 6 182 | 6 466 | 8 089 | 4 461 | 19 | 6 839 | 6 843 | 9 120 | 5 539 | 19 |
| Provisioning | (901) | (980) | (711) | (1 899) | 19 | (1 024) | (1 1610) | (1 868) | (831) | 19 |
| Net profit | 3 296 | 3 607 | 4 903 | 2 793 | 19 | 3 639 | 3 680 | 4 954 | 3 078 | 19 |
| Lending growth | 3.8% | 7.2% | 34.0% | (6.6%) | 18 | 4.6% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 0.9% | 17 |
| Deposits growth | 12.9% | 12.9% | 11.2% | (2.4%) | 15 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 0.4% | 14 |
NOTE: Consensus based on 19 brokers reports published since 05.11.2021
Last updated on 23.06.2022
NoF is the number of forecasts
Operating costs incl. BFG, excl. Banking tax
The number of reports included in the consensus may differ from the number of analysts who prepare research on the Bank, due to an outdated forecast date or other reason
Macroeconomic scenario
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022F | 2023F | |
| GDP, % | (2.5) | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| Private consumption, % y/y | (3.0) | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| Investments, % y/y | (9.0) | 3.9 | 4.8 | 7.9 |
| Unemployment, % eop | 6.3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| CPI, % avg | 3.4 | 5.1 | 13.4 | 9.6 |
| 3M Wibor, % eop | 0.21 | 2.54 | 6.68 | 6.18 |
| Reference rate, % eop | 0.10 | 1.75 | 6.50 | 6.00 |
| Exchange rate EUR, eop | 4.44 | 4.57 | 4.56 | 4.46 |
| Exchange rate USD, eop | 3.76 | 4.06 | 4.05 | 3.90 |
| Public sector balance, % GDP | (7.0) | (1.8) | (3.1) | (3.80) |
| 2020 | 2021F(2) | 2022F(2) | 2023F(2) | |
| Loans, % y/y |
0.7 |
5.1 |
1,9 |
3.6 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
3.0 |
4.8 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
|
Mortgage loans PLN |
10.2 |
12.8 |
6.0 |
6.6 |
|
Consumer loans(1) |
(1.9) |
2.0 |
(2,6) |
(1.7) |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
(4.9) |
4.3 |
3.4 |
4.5 |
| Savings(3), % y/y |
9.3 |
6.5 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
| Deposits, % y/y |
14.4 |
10.1 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
10.6 |
6.6 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
19.0 |
10.4 |
5.3 |
3.6 |
| Mutual Funds(4), % y/y |
0.5 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
(1) all non-mortgage retail loans
(2) internal scenario
(3) deposits + assets in mutual funds dedicated to retail clients
(4) retail customers assets in investment funds
Last updated on 30.05.2022