Current investment recommendations for Bank Pekao S.A. shares
Consensus of expectations for 4Q'23
The following table presents consensus estimates for key P&L items based on most current estimates developed by equity analysts covering stock of Bank Pekao. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding financial performance of Bank Pekao made by analysts are their sole discretion and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Bank Pekao or its Management Board.
| 4Q'23 consensus based on 17 analysts |
change y/y | change q/q | ||||||||
| P&L (PLN mn) | average | median | max | min | 4Q'22 | net | % | 3Q'23 | net | % |
| Revenue | 3809 | 3842 | 3919 | 3334 | 3820 | (11) | (0%) | 3777 | 32 | 1% |
| Core revenue | 3785 | 3797 | 3846 | 3686 | 3882 | (97) | (3%) | 3754 | 31 | 1% |
| Net interest income(*) | 3071 | 3083 | 3134 | 2954 | 3210 | (139) | (4%) | 3025 | 46 | 2% |
| F&C | 713 | 714 | 739 | 690 | 672 | 41 | 6% | 729 | (16) | (2%) |
| Other revenues | 24 | 45 | 46 | (310) | (62) | 86 | (139%) | 23 | 1 | 4% |
| Costs | (1230) | (1225) | (1194) | (1271) | (1041) | (189) | 18% | (1175) | (55) | 5% |
| Operating profit | 2579 | 2617 | 2725 | 2063 | 2779 | (200) | (7%) | 2602 | (23) | (1%) |
| Total Provisions | (236) | (220) | (150) | (352) | (1091) | 855 | (78%) | (167) | (69) | 42% |
| Banking Tax | (226) | (226) | (207) | (251) | (228) | 2 | (1%) | (222) | (4) | 2% |
| Net Profit | 1571 | 1613 | 1670 | 1038 | 886 | 685 | 77,3% | 1716 | (145) | (8.5%) |
NOTE:
(*) Net interest income and revenues, without dividends and income from equity investment
Consensus based on 17 forecasts of analysts from: Trigon DM S.A.; Autonomous Research, Citi; Santander CEE Equity Research; WOOD & Company, Morgan Stanley, PKO BM; mBank BM, BM Millennium, Erste Securities, JP Morgan, SG CIB, Ipopema, BM BOŚ, Goldman Sachs Research, BoML & RBI International.
Last updated on 13.02.2024
Annual Consensus
|
Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding Bank Pekao S.A. performance made by sell-side analysts are theirs alone and do not represent opinions, forecasts or predictions of Pekao or its Management Board. |
Average price target (Last update on 06.03.2024) PLN 148.14 |
| Recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight) | 12 | 70.6% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight) | 4 | 23.5% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight) | 1 | 5.9% |
| Total | 17 | 100% |
Last updated on 06.03.2024
Current market consensus of Bank Pekao S.A. for the years 2023-2024
The following table presents consensus estimates for key P&L as well as balance sheet items based on most current estimates developed by equity analysts covering stock of Bank Pekao. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding financial performance of Bank Pekao made by analysts are their sole discretion and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Bank Pekao or its Management Board.
| 2024E | 2025E | |||||||||
| (PLN mn) | Median | Average | Max | Min | NoF | Median | Average | Max | Min | NoF |
|
Revenues |
14 385 | 14 335 | 15 598 | 12 970 | 17 | 14 179 | 14 235 | 15 655 | 12 414 | 15 |
|
NII |
10 940 | 11 081 | 12 377 | 9 848 | 17 | 10 929 | 10 855 | 12 037 | 8 752 | 15 |
|
F&C |
2 956 | 2 976 | 3 331 | 2 785 | 17 | 3 056 | 3 064 | 3 438 | 2 863 | 15 |
|
Operating costs |
(5 460) | (5 459) | (4 624) | (6 294) | 17 | (5 792) | (5 809) | (6 495) | (5 381) | 15 |
|
Operating profit |
8 925 | 8 876 | 10 974 | 6 676 | 17 | 8 387 | 8 426 | 9 160 | 7 033 | 15 |
|
Provisioning |
(972) | (1 063) | (749) | (1 553) | 17 | (1 030) | (1 057) | (1 335) | (800) | 15 |
|
Net profit |
5 154 | 5 161 | 6 400 | 4 371 | 17 | 4 833 | 4 760 | 6 024 | 3 657 | 15 |
|
Lending growth |
1.9% | 2.5% | 8.3% | (4.0%) | 17 | 5.4% | 6.0% | 14.2% | 1.6% | 14 |
|
Deposits growth |
5.6% | 2.7% | 15.2% | (15.2%) | 16 | 5.0% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 0.8% | 12 |
NOTE: Consensus based on 17 brokers reports published since 19.01.2023
Last updated on 06.03.2024
NoF is the number of forecasts
Operating costs incl. BFG excl. Banking tax
The number of reports included in the consensus may differ from the number of analysts who prepare research on the Bank, due to an outdated forecast date or other reason
Macroeconomic scenario
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023F | 2024F | 2025F | |
| GDP, % | 7.0 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| Private consumption, % y/y | 6.1 | 5.2 | (1.0) | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Investments, % y/y | 1.2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | (1.1) | 6.4 |
| Unemployment, % eop | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| CPI, % avg | 5.1 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| 3M Wibor, % eop | 2.54 | 7.02 | 5.88 | 5.85 | 5.90 |
| Reference rate, % eop | 1.75 | 6.75 | 5,75 | 5.75 | 5.75 |
| Exchange rate EUR, eop | 4.57 | 4.69 | 4.57 | 4.30 | 4.32 |
| Exchange rate USD, eop | 4.06 | 4.40 | 3.94 | 3.81 | 3.79 |
| Public sector balance, % GDP | (1.8) | (3.7) | (4.9) | (5.3) | (4.9) |
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023F(2) | 2024F(2) | 2025F(2) | |
| Loans, % y/y |
5.1 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
4.8 |
(3.9) |
(0.2) |
3.3 |
5.0 |
|
Mortgage loans PLN |
12.6 |
(1.5) |
1.3 |
5.2 |
5.6 |
|
Consumer loans(1) |
2.0 |
(3.0) |
1.5 |
3.8 |
6.0 |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
4.3 |
9.7 |
(1.7) |
2.5 |
3.8 |
| Savings(3), % y/y |
6.9 |
1.2 |
11.0 |
8.7 |
10.6 |
| Deposits, % y/y |
10.1 |
5.1 |
10.9 |
9.4 |
10.1 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
6.6 |
3.5 |
11.8 |
9.2 |
11.2 |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
10.3 |
11.6 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
11.0 |
| Mutual Funds(4), % y/y |
9.2 |
(15,3) |
4.0 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
(1) all non-mortgage retail loans
(2) internal scenario
(3) deposits + assets in mutual funds dedicated to retail clients
(4) retail customers assets in investment funds
Last updated on 02.02.2024