Recommendations for Bank Pekao
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Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding Bank Pekao S.A. performance made by sell-side analysts are theirs alone and do not represent opinions, forecasts or predictions of Pekao or its Management Board. |
Average price target (Last update on 6.07.2020) PLN 62.67 |
| Recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight) | 9 | 60% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight) | 5 | 33% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight) | 1 | 7% |
| Total | 15 | 100% |
Last updated on 06.07.2020
Pekao Market Consensus
Current market consensus for Bank Pekao S.A. on years 2020-2021
The following table shows the consensus, expressed by few analysts of national and international brokerage houses covering Pekao, on the main income statement items. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding Bank Pekao S.A. performance made by analysts are theirs alone and do not represent opinions, forecasts or predictions of Pekao or its Management Board.
| 2020E | 2021E | |||||||||
| mln pln | Median | Average | Max | Min | No Forecasts | Median | Average | Max | Min | No Forecasts |
| Revenues | 7 708 | 7 745 | 8 203 | 7 226 | 15 | 7 609 | 7 761 | 8 372 | 7 204 | 15 |
| NII | 5 046 | 5 069 | 5 385 | 4 812 | 15 | 4 846 | 5 014 | 5 556 | 4 589 | 15 |
| F&C | 2 476 | 2 444 | 2 551 | 2 243 | 15 | 2 514 | 2 515 | 2 659 | 2 380 | 15 |
| Costs incl. BFG, excl. Banking tax | -3 928 | -3 863 | -4 093 | -3 256 | 15 | -3879 | -3 813 | -4 102 | -3 356 | 15 |
| Operating profit | 3 780 | 3 881 | 4 110 | 3 970 | 15 | 3 730 | 3 948 | 4 270 | 3 848 | 15 |
| Provisioning | -1 435 | -1 513 | -1 980 | -1 256 | 15 | -1 201 | -1 293 | -2 102 | -907 | 15 |
| Net profit | 1 191 | 1 142 | 1 653 | 567 | 15 | 1 319 | 1 373 | 2 087 | 445 | 15 |
| Lending growth | 1.2% | 1.4% | 4.2% | -0.2% | 15 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 8.5% | 0.4% | 15 |
| Deposits growth | 2.8% | 3.9% | 15.0% | 0.5% | 15 | 4.7% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 15 |
NOTE: Consensus based on 19 brokers reports published since 24.03.2020
Last updated on 06.07.2020
Macroeconomic scenario
| 2019 | 2020F | 2021F | |
| GDP, % | 4.1 | -4.4 | 5.2 |
| Private consumption, % y/y | 3.9 | -7.1 | 6.0 |
| Investments, % y/y | 6.9 | -8.6 | 5,3 |
| Unemployment, % eop | 5.2 | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| CPI, % avg | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 3M Wibor, % eop | 1.71 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| Reference rate, % eop | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Exchange rate EUR, eop | 4.26 | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| Exchange rate USD, eop | 3.80 | 4.26 | 3.91 |
| Public sector balance, % GDP | (0.7) | (7.3) | (4.1) |
| 2019 | 2020F(2) | 2021F(2) | |
| Loans, % y/y | 4.9 | -4.5 | 3.3 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
6.0 | -3.8 | 3.3 |
|
Mortgage loans PLN |
12.3 | 2.3 | 6.2 |
|
Consumer loans(1) |
5.1 | -8.3 | 4.1 |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
2.1 | -7.4 | 2.9 |
| Savings(3), % y/y | 8.0F | -1.5 | 4.1 |
| Deposits, % y/y | 8.6 | 0.5 | 4.3 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
9.3 | 1.3 | 4.9 |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
10.0 | -1.5 | 3.0 |
| Mutual Funds(4), % y/y | 1.0F | -15.0 | 0.0 |
(1) all non-mortgage retail loans
(2) internal scenario
(3) deposits + assets in mutual funds dedicated to retail clients
(4) retail customers assets in investment funds
Last updated on 27.05.2020