Recommendations for Bank Pekao
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Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding Bank Pekao S.A. performance made by sell-side analysts are theirs alone and do not represent opinions, forecasts or predictions of Pekao or its Management Board. |
Average price target (Last update on 14.09.2020) PLN 66.94 |
| Recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight) | 9 | 69% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight) | 3 | 23% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight) | 1 | 8% |
| Total | 13 | 100% |
Last updated on 14.09.2020
Pekao Market Consensus
The following table presents consensus estimates for key P&L as well as balance sheet items based on most current estimates developed by equity analysts covering stock of Bank Pekao. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding financial performance of Bank Pekao made by analysts are their sole discretion and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Bank Pekao or its Management Board.
| 2020E | 2021E | |||||||||
| mln pln | Median | Average | Max | Min | No Forecasts | Median | Average | Max | Min | No Forecasts |
| Revenues | 7 632 | 7 693 | 8 056 | 7 457 | 13 | 7 592 | 7 670 | 8 080 | 7 288 | 13 |
| NII | 5 052 | 5 093 | 5 392 | 4 883 | 13 | 4 905 | 4 947 | 5 360 | 4 589 | 13 |
| F&C | 2 409 | 2 403 | 2 495 | 2 264 | 13 | 2 495 | 2 509 | 2 659 | 2 399 | 13 |
| Costs incl. BFG, excl. Banking tax | -3 944 | -3 865 | -3 974 | -3 060 | 13 | -3 810 | -3 829 | -4 103 | -3 413 | 13 |
| Operating profit | 3 688 | 3 828 | 4 082 | 4 397 | 13 | 3 782 | 3 841 | 3 977 | 3 875 | 13 |
| Provisioning | -1 527 | -1 580 | -1 980 | -1 256 | 13 | -1 160 | -1 275 | -2 102 | -907 | 13 |
| Net profit | 1 048 | 1 022 | 1 321 | 567 | 13 | 1 359 | 1 277 | 1 611 | 445 | 13 |
| Lending growth | 2.1% | 2.1% | 6.1% | -0.4% | 13 | 5.6% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 13 |
| Deposits growth | 10.3% | 9.6% | 15.9% | 2.5% | 11 | 4.4% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 11 |
NOTE: Consensus based on 13 brokers reports published since 16.06.2020
Last updated on 09.09.2020
Macroeconomic scenario
| 2019 | 2020F | 2021F | |
| GDP, % | 4.1 | -4.4 | 5.2 |
| Private consumption, % y/y | 3.9 | -7.1 | 6.0 |
| Investments, % y/y | 6.9 | -8.6 | 5,3 |
| Unemployment, % eop | 5.2 | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| CPI, % avg | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 3M Wibor, % eop | 1.71 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| Reference rate, % eop | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Exchange rate EUR, eop | 4.26 | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| Exchange rate USD, eop | 3.80 | 4.26 | 3.91 |
| Public sector balance, % GDP | (0.7) | (7.3) | (4.1) |
| 2019 | 2020F(2) | 2021F(2) | |
| Loans, % y/y | 4.9 | -4.5 | 3.3 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
6.0 | -3.8 | 3.3 |
|
Mortgage loans PLN |
12.3 | 2.3 | 6.2 |
|
Consumer loans(1) |
5.1 | -8.3 | 4.1 |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
2.1 | -7.4 | 2.9 |
| Savings(3), % y/y | 8.0F | -1.5 | 4.1 |
| Deposits, % y/y | 8.6 | 0.5 | 4.3 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
9.3 | 1.3 | 4.9 |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
10.0 | -1.5 | 3.0 |
| Mutual Funds(4), % y/y | 1.0F | -15.0 | 0.0 |
(1) all non-mortgage retail loans
(2) internal scenario
(3) deposits + assets in mutual funds dedicated to retail clients
(4) retail customers assets in investment funds
Last updated on 27.05.2020