8 hours ago
Poland's CPI close to the target, but core inflation causing concern
Inflation in Poland has entered the inflation target, or to be more precise, within its acceptable deviation range (2.5% ± 1%). According to the flash estimate, CPI fell to 3.1% yoy in July from 4.1% in the previous month. However, the reading surprised negatively. Nevertheless, in our opinion, inflation will remain close to the inflation target for a longer period. We assume it will fall below 3% yoy by the end of 2025.
3 days ago
The week ahead: quiet start, key data later
The week opens on a calm note, with Monday lacking major macro releases and investor focus turning to US–EU trade developments. Momentum will build midweek with the Fed’s rate decision and U.S. labor market data on Friday, while in Poland, Thursday’s flash CPI reading could mark the start of a sustained return to the target range, with inflation likely falling below 3% y/y in July.
1 week ago
June retail sales disappointed, but the outlook for consumption remains positive
The monthly data package from Poland's real economy was complemented by a weak retail sales reading. June's 2.2% year-on-year increase was a disappointing result, significantly below market expectations (4.1% yoy). GDP growth in the second quarter doesn't look to exceed 3.5% yoy. However, the outlook for consumption remains moderately positive.
1 week ago
The wage brake is getting a bit stuck
The rate of weakening wage pressure in Poland has slowed in recent months. Wage growth in the corporate sector accelerated slightly in June to 9.0% yoy from 8.4% in the previous month (slightly surprising the consensus of 8.6%). Employment data, on the other hand, proved interesting for a completely unexpected reason.
1 week ago
Poland's industrial production (temporarily?) hits the brakes
Following several months of solid readings, industrial production has underperformed, recording a yoy decline of 0.1%. This raises concerns regarding the long-anticipated recovery of the domestic industrial sector and its ability to break free from prolonged stagnation. However, one data point does not constitute a trend, and today’s figure alone is insufficient to justify a long-term pessimistic outlook.
1 week ago
Persistent price divergence: a structural feature of Polish inflation
The beginning of the week will be dominated by major macro readings from Poland’s economy. In the meantime, we take a closer look at Polish inflation and its structure.