6 days ago
The MPC intends to adopt a wait-and-see approach for a while
It promises to be a quiet week, with an empty macroeconomic calendar dominated by decision meetings of major central banks. Investors' attention will be focused on the Fed. According to market expectations, it will cut interest rates by 25 bps.
1 week ago
December cut is on the table
The Polish economy continues to enjoy strong momentum. Last week brought stronger-than-expected data from the retail sales, manufacturing, and construction sectors, along with a lower-than-expected inflation rate. Profit margins of Polish enterprises improved in the third quarter of 2025. This Goldilocks performance is likely to encourage the MPC to cut interest rates by another 25bps this week.
2 weeks ago
Inflation below the target and expectations opened the door to December rate cut
Breaking! According to the flash estimate, Poland’s CPI fell to 2.4% yoy in November, below the NBP’s inflation target (2.5%) and lower than market expectations (2.6%). The lower reading was driven by broadly distributed, small surprises across most price categories, while core inflation declined to around 2.7-2.8% yoy. The data increase the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) in December. Looking ahead to 2026, inflation is expected to stabilize near the target.
2 weeks ago
Polish consumers remain in high spirits
October retail sales data confirm good confidence of Polish consumers. Retail sales grew by 5.4% yoy, surpassing market expectations of 4.0%. Consumers remain in very good shape, with particularly strong demand for durable goods. This increases the likelihood that GDP growth in 4Q25 will reach the long-anticipated 4% yoy.
2 weeks ago
Another strong month for Poland’s industry
The October reading for Poland’s industrial sector confirms that it remains on a solid path toward further recovery. Output increased by a robust 3.2% yoy and 5.4% mom, remaining at highest level ever recorded, excluding last month’s reading. This marks a strong start to the fourth quarter and supports our forecast of an acceleration in GDP growth toward year-end and throughout the coming year.
2 weeks ago
Poland: wage and productivity growth aligned at last
In October, nominal wage growth decelerated from 7.5% to 6.6% year-on-year, bringing real wage growth down to 3.8% — broadly in line with the 3.7% yoy increase in real GDP in the third quarter, which serves as a proxy for productivity growth. This suggests that wage dynamics have moved into a range considered neutral for inflation (5–6% annually), effectively reducing wage-driven inflationary pressure. As a result, conditions are increasingly favorable for further monetary easing. In our view, the next interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) could come as early as December.