1 day ago
Poland: One More Rate Cut Likely Before Year-End
The macro calendar this week is full of noteworthy data releases from Poland. We started today with an upside revision of CPI inflation for September (from 2.8 to 2.9% y/y). Tomorrow the core inflation reading will be published. On Wednesday, the latest consumer sentiment is scheduled, followed on Thursday by figures on industrial production, construction output, and labor market data for September.
2 weeks ago
Rates in Poland will be cut this week
This week’s main event in Poland will be the MPC’s rate decision – we expect a cut by 25 bps. Other than that, the economic calendar will be dominated by readings from the core markets; NFP on Friday and final PMI readings in the first half of the week.
2 weeks ago
Entering a low inflation environment in Poland
The flash Poland's CPI reading for August was at 2.8% yoy, slightly lower than expected. Month-on-month prices fell by 0.1%. A decline in core inflation to approximately 3.1% yoy helped significantly here, suggesting a continuation of disinflationary trend in this category. In our view, we are entering a long-term low-inflation environment in Poland. These are excellent conditions for further interest rate cuts, the first should be at the September meeting.
3 weeks ago
Polish private consumption confirms its status as the dark horse of 2025.
Retail sales surprised on the upside, rising by 4.8% yoy. Notably, there was a strong outturn in durable and semi-durable goods sales. The year-to-date 2025 retail sales growth matches the 2024 average, but all signs point to acceleration later this year. Thus, private consumption remains the dark horse of 2025.
3 weeks ago
Poland’s Data Test Ahead: CPI, Retail, and Budget
Poland’s economic calendar kicks off this week with July’s retail sales data, where analysts expect a modest 3.1% year-on-year increase. Markets, however, are more focused on the days ahead: the flash CPI reading for August and the draft 2026 state budget, set to enter public consultations by month’s end. Globally, Friday will take center stage, bringing a wave of key inflation data, most notably the closely watched U.S. PCE figures.
3 weeks ago
Nothing but declines in the Polish labor market
July saw a pronounced slowdown of wage growth, contradicting the concerns we had speculated about a month earlier regarding a potential malfunction of the "wage brake". It turned out that the upward surprise observed in June was fully offset by the disappointing outcome in July — wage growth in the enterprise sector slowed to 7.6% yoy from 9.0%, falling short of the expected 8.6%. Employment data also unexpectedly underperformed, and we further identify a continuation of the classification issues observed in June.