1 day ago
Inflation reading brings June in October
The flash estimate of CPI inflation in October is slightly below the consensus forecast (2.8% y/y vs. the expected 2.9% y/y). This means that inflation has returned to the level seen in June last year. However, the biggest surprise comes from core inflation which fell from 3.2% y/y in September to 2.9% y/y in October. In our opinion, today's reading determines that there will be an interest rate cut at the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Council.
5 days ago
Green shoots in Polish monthly macro data
The last week of October will begin quietly, with a calendar devoid of significant macroeconomic releases. The US, still grappling with the government shutdown, will miss many important data publications. For that reason, markets will focus on central bank meetings, including the ECB and the Fed, with the US market expecting a 25 bps interest rate cut. In Poland, the flash reading for October CPI will be released at the end of the week, likely confirming its stabilization below 3%.
1 week ago
Polish consumers still showing strength
After positive surprises in industry and construction, we got a slightly disappointing retail sales reading for September, which accelerated from 3.1% to 6.4% yoy, compared to the consensus of 6.8% and our forecast of 8% yoy. Nevertheless, the forecasting error does not stem from a deterioration in the sector’s economic conditions. The positive narrative about the Polish consumer still holds.
1 week ago
Polish industry returned from holidays in a bullish mood
The September figures from the Polish industry look outstanding. Industrial production surged by 7.4% yoy and 4.1% mom (s.a.), making September’s output the highest in history. While it’s important to approach the September data with caution, they fit the positive trend seen for several months like a glove. They also support our forecast of accelerating GDP in the second half of the year.
1 week ago
Continued softness in Poland's labour market indicators
September did not bring any significant surprises in the Polish labor market. Wage growth was in line with both market consensus and our forecast, showing a slight increase compared to the previous month, though remaining relatively subdued. Meanwhile, employment growth stabilized at the level registered in August.
1 week ago
Polish Economy Beats Expectations in September
This week is full of data readings for Polish economy for September. We’ve already received very strong industrial production and moderate wage growth readings. Tomorrow we will get construction output data, and on Wednesday, retails sales. They are likely to point to strong – but not booming – GDP growth in 3Q25.