34 minutes ago
Polish economy is gaining steam
The Polish economy accelerated from 3.0% to 3.6% in 2025. Data from Statistics Poland therefore indicate that in the fourth quarter, GDP increased by at least 4% yoy, with strong contributions from private and public consumption and a somewhat disappointing result from investment. In our view, GDP will rise by 4% in 2026, with upside risks.
3 days ago
Polish retail sales growth topped 5 percent in December
Retail sales did not follow the path of industrial and construction output – the December result (+5.3% yoy) is in line with expectations. However, this is not a problem – the details of the reading are actually better than the headline, and a strong December rounds off a year in which consumption clearly exceeded initial forecasts. We estimate that in 2025, consumption grew by 3.6%.
4 days ago
Strong turn of the year for the Polish economy
The remaining macro releases this week are of secondary importance. Today the NBP will publish money supply and credit data, while tomorrow Statistics Poland releases its monthly Statistical Bulletin along with unemployment data. The latter likely amounted to 5.7% in December.
1 week ago
Strong year-end performance in the Polish labour market
The December wage reading substantially exceeded analysts’ expectations. While the consensus had pointed to a 7% yoy growth, the actual figure came in at a robust 8.6%. In our view, this was largely driven by generous holiday bonuses, an effect that should to a significant extent fade in January. Positive signals were also visible in employment: its annual growth rate improved to -0.7% yoy from -0.8%, in line with market expectations.
1 week ago
Polish economy shifted into higher gear in December
Industrial and construction output exceeded consensus by around 4 pp. The releases were strong enough to raise estimates for economic growth at the end of the year. In light of updated estimates, GDP growth reached 4% in the fourth quarter and amounted to 3.6–3.7% in the whole 2025.
1 week ago
The NBP will resume easing in February
Focus this week is on Polish macro data: on Thursday Statistics Poland will publish labor market and industry data for December and business and consumer sentiment for January. We expect the former to show a rebound in industrial output, ongoing decline in employment and wage growth trending downward.