11 hours ago
Domestic growth drivers are propelling Polish industry
Industrial production rose by 4.1% yoy in May, beating consensus (2.5% yoy) and our forecast (3.4% yoy). The negative effects of the war in the Gulf are, for now, limited mainly to rising costs and reduced availability of components and raw materials in certain segments. Production itself remains strong. In our view, investment demand deserves much of the credit for this.
4 days ago
Markets elated about the US-Iran deal
This will be quite a calm week in Poland and quite busy abroad. Markets will focus on Fed, BoE and Swiss National Banks meetings. The agreement between USA an Iran should keep investors optimistic, which will help Polish assets.
1 week ago
Feeble consumption growth in 1Q26
A calm week ahead, most awaited event is the ECB’s rate decision (we expect a 25bp hike).
2 weeks ago
Poland's MPC will remain dovish despite ECB's hawkish turn
In an unusual scheduling arrangement, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. However, no changes to policy rates are expected.
3 weeks ago
Polish inflation slowed in May instead of accelerating – a significant upside surprise in food prices
The May CPI reading in Poland delivered a strong positive surprise, with inflation slowing to 3.1% yoy instead of accelerating to the market consensus of 3.7%. The downside surprise was driven in particular by lower-than-expected food prices and core inflation. The data suggest that second-round effects related to higher fuel prices remain limited for now. As a result, any discussion about potential interest rate hikes can be safely set aside, while the Monetary Policy Council is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode over the coming months, keeping rates unchanged.
3 weeks ago
Polish retail sales disappointed – both in general and in the specifics
Retail sales disappointed in April, rising by 1.3% yoy (consensus and our forecast: 3% yoy). The March and April readings are largely one-off events and should be viewed in conjunction. Nevertheless, April’s sales figures contain negative signals pointing to weak private consumption in the coming quarters. We expect this to be the main channel through which the oil shock will impact the Polish economy.