6 hours ago
It was a good quarter for the Polish economy
An acceleration in manufacturing and a rebound in construction and assembly output following the cold spell in the first months of the year gave us the fastest growth in industrial and construction output in over four years – up 3.7% qoq. June itself was merely the culmination of a strong quarter, though it naturally brought solid increases in output. We estimate that in the second quarter of this year, GDP accelerated to 3.8% yoy.
6 hours ago
Manufacturing drives wages acceleration in Poland
Wage growth unexpectedly accelerated to 5.9% yoy in June, following May’s increase (5.8%) that had been largely driven by one-off factors. The reading came in well above the consensus forecast (5.5%). The acceleration was entirely attributable to a sharp increase in wages in manufacturing, which alone added around 0.5 percentage points to the headline figure. Meanwhile, employment growth remained stable at -0.9% yoy.
8 hours ago
State budget after 1H26: not great, not terrible
By accident of calendar, almost all monthly data from the Polish economy are due this week. We’ll be a bit busy, then. Elsewhere, the most important events of the week are the ECB Governing Council meeting (no hike; on Thursday) and flash PMIs for July (on Friday).
1 week ago
NBP’s Dovish Pivot
Last week, the NBP dropped a dovish surprise on us. Today’s calendar is empty, but the remainder of the week should prove more eventful. In Poland, attention will focus on the final inflation release and the government bond auction. In the core markets, the spotlight will be firmly on US data, including inflation, retail sales and industrial production. Investors will also be watching the new Fed Chair’s first appearance before Congress.
2 weeks ago
Poland: Markets Shift from Hikes to Cuts
This week's MPC meeting will be the main event for domestic markets. The Council has so far resisted calls for a policy response to the conflict in the Middle East, and subsequent developments have largely validated that decision. With concerns about disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz receding and June inflation surprising to the downside, markets have moved from pricing in the risk of rate hikes to speculating about the timing and scale of the next easing cycle. That said, the MPC is likely to view such expectations as premature and may be reluctant to provide a clear signal on future rate cuts at this stage.
2 weeks ago
Polish inflation undershoots expectations again
Poland’s CPI reading once again surprised downwards, confirming significantly weaker-than-expected price pressure in the Polish economy. Inflation slowed to 2.5% yoy in June, primarily due to non-core categories: fuel and food prices. At the same time, core inflation remains relatively stable, remaining at an elevated level of 3.0% yoy. As a result, the short-term inflation outlook is improving, but its structure still justifies the Monetary Policy Council's cautious approach and the continued holding of interest rates unchanged.