5 days ago
For the MPC, caution prevails over macroeconomic indicators
Not a lot going on this week. The macro calendar will be empty until Friday. The end of the week brings the release of final CPI data and monthly balance of payments for April.
1 week ago
Surprisingly strong investments in the first quarter
GUS confirmed today that GDP in the first quarter grew by 3.2% yoy and 0.7% qoq (seasonally adjusted). What is surprising, however, is the structure of GDP growth. Contrary to the pessimism emanating from almost every Q1 data, investments increased by an impressive 6.3% yoy. In light of these data, our forecast that investment will grow by 8.6% this year is still valid.
1 week ago
Suprising presidential election results in Poland
The beginning of the week will be marked by analyses of the results of the presidential elections in Poland. This week the MPC will decide on interest rates, but we do not expect any changes. In the core markets, the beginning of June will pass in anticipation of the ECB decision on Thursday and the reading of US payrolls on Friday. On the way, the final PMI data in Europe and the US for May will be published, as well as the flash estimate of May inflation in the eurozone.
2 weeks ago
Inflation in Poland lower-than-expected again
Consumer inflation (CPI) in Poland once again surprised with a stronger-than-expected rate of decline. According to the flash estimate, it fell to 4.1% yoy in May (we assumed 4.2%, consensus forecast 4.3%). It is worth noting that prices fell by 0.2% month-on-month - this is the first price drop since September 2023. Inflation will very likely reach the inflation target (2.5%) as early as the third quarter of this year. In our opinion, the macroeconomic conditions for cutting interest rates are excellent.
2 weeks ago
The best retail sales reading in three years
Poland's retail sales was expected to accelerate significantly in April (to 4% yoy), however, it increased unexpectedly the most in three years (7.6% yoy). In addition to the late Easter holiday, improvement in consumer sentiment is probably responsible for such a good result. This is a good prognosis for consumption in the second quarter this year.
2 weeks ago
The first green shoots on the credit market
Last week’s local macro data were a mixed bag: industrial output surprised to the upside and labor market firmed up, but construction disappointed. This week starts and ends on a big note: today retail sales data for April will be released and on Friday Statistics Poland will publish the details of Q1 GDP and the flash estimate of May CPI. We expect retail sales to have surged to 4.0% yoy and inflation to have declined marginally, to 4.2% yoy.