26 minutes ago
Polish industry suffered an accident in August
In August, industrial production rose by 4.3% yoy, 2 p.p. below the consensus estimate and even further from our forecast. What is most surprising is how unremarkable this reading is – the surprise cannot be attributed to a single sector, as the slowdown was widespread and very even. This leaves two Cs on the table: cycle and calendar. The latter option – making up for the August 15 holiday and good weather during the vacation season – is quite tempting as an ex post explanation. Looking at the bigger picture, trends in Polish industry are positive.
4 days ago
Rates unchanged, rating unchanged
Globally, markets will follow policy decisions of Fed, BoE, and BoJ. Domestically, we are waiting for Moody’s policy action (and we expect no change of rating) and August manufacturing figures, both of which are scheduled for Friday.
1 week ago
Second time’s the charm: lessons from the latest GDP data from Poland
The NBP is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and we do not expect any changes. The Governor’s press conference the following day is likely to be more relevant than the decision itself.
2 weeks ago
Inflation rises on higher fuel prices, further narrowing room for rate cuts
Poland’s CPI inflation accelerated markedly in August to 3.4% yoy, but once again primarily driven by higher fuel prices, while food prices continued to decline. The rise in core inflation is nevertheless a concern. Today’s data further narrow the window for interest rate cuts.
2 weeks ago
Poland’s fiscal policy and its repercussions in the spotlight again
With regard to macroeconomic figures from Poland, this week has ended before it’s really begun, with today’s reading of August CPI (3.4% y/y) and 2Q26 GDP (3.9% y/y, revised by +0.1 p.p. since the flash release). No more macroeconomic releases are scheduled for the upcoming days
3 weeks ago
Smooth summer sailing for Polish consumers
Retail sales slowed from 6.2% in June to 3.9% yoy in July. This result is close to the consensus estimate and the long-term average. The slowdown in sales can be attributed primarily to the expiration of the fuel price relief package and a less favorable arrangement of trading days. Polish consumers remain in good shape, although retail sales may not be the best indicator of this.