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Selected tag: GDP
1 week ago
Our third attempt at 4% Polish GDP growth
An interesting week ahead – the focus will be on Polish monthly macro data (Tuesday and Thursday) and flash PMI readings for core markets (Friday).
3 weeks ago
ECB started, Fed joined, NBP will follow
MacroCompass October 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
Farewell to rate cuts in Poland
MacroCompass September 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
3 months ago
No pressure to change interest rates in Poland
MacroCompass July/August 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
4 months ago
Rising hawkish tide leaves the NBP behind
MacroCompass June 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
5 months ago
Polish economy started to slow down
In Q1’26 Poland's GDP slowed to 3.4% yoy, matching consensus, but coming below our rather optimistic forecast (3.8% yoy). At this stage, we do not know the details of Q1 GDP, but we assume the main reason for the slowdown was a sharp drop in construction investment caused by a harsh winter. These figures, in our opinion, were not meaningfully affected by the Iran war – we expect to see these effects in the coming quarters, though. In our view, Poland's GDP will rise by 3.5% this year and by 2.7% next year.