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1 week ago
Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state
MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 week ago
December cut is on the table
The Polish economy continues to enjoy strong momentum. Last week brought stronger-than-expected data from the retail sales, manufacturing, and construction sectors, along with a lower-than-expected inflation rate. Profit margins of Polish enterprises improved in the third quarter of 2025. This Goldilocks performance is likely to encourage the MPC to cut interest rates by another 25bps this week.
3 weeks ago
The most underrated expansion in history
In terms of economic data, this will be a lighter week. We kick off today with the official release of core inflation numbers from the NBP. The most important one (CPI excl. food and energy) will show significant disinflation in October. On Thursday Statistics Poland will publish consumer confidence indicators for November and on the next day the preliminary business sentiment data for the same period will be released.
4 weeks ago
Poland’s GDP growth surged to three year high, but…
Forecasts have once again hit the mark – GDP in Q3’25 rose by 3.7% yoy, following a 3.3% rise in the previous quarter. This is the best result for the Polish economy in this cycle. In our view, a closer look at the data reveals sustained high growth in consumption and a rebound in investment after a weak second quarter. Nevertheless, due to an unfavourable external environment, we are amidst the slowest phase of recovery/expansion in this century.
5 weeks ago
MPC to deliver final rate cut of the year
MacroCompass November - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 months ago
Inflation stands still, while the MPC sits on the fence
MacroCompass October 2025 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets