23 hours ago
Food not as cheap as it seemed – on January inflation
The decline in inflation in January was not as deep as we had anticipated. CPI inflation fell from 2.4% yoy in December to 2.2% in January, above our forecast and the consensus. The surprise was mainly due to more expensive food and energy. Core inflation, on the other hand, fell as expected, from 2.7% to around 2.5% yoy. These figures are not groundbreaking for monetary policy, as they are close to NBP’s forecasts. In March, the MPC we will cut rates by 25 bps.
5 days ago
The Interest Rate Cut Postponed to March
This week we will receive Q4 2025 GDP data (around 4.0% yoy), January CPI inflation (based on the old consumption basket weights), and the December 2025 current account balance. These releases should be broadly neutral for the zloty and Polish government bond yields.
1 week ago
The MPC will wait until March to resume rate cuts
MacroCompass February 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 week ago
NBP will cut interest rates this week
The key event of the week for the Polish market will be Wednesday’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Council, at which we expect a 25 bp cut in interest rates.
2 weeks ago
Polish economy is gaining steam
The Polish economy accelerated from 3.0% to 3.6% in 2025. Data from Statistics Poland therefore indicate that in the fourth quarter, GDP increased by at least 4% yoy, with strong contributions from private and public consumption and a somewhat disappointing result from investment. In our view, GDP will rise by 4% in 2026, with upside risks.
2 weeks ago
Ten economic questions for 2026-2027
As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.