13 hours ago
A long-unseen surprise of higher inflation in Poland
According to the flash estimate, CPI inflation in Poland accelerated in June to 4.1% yoy from 4.0% in the previous month. The consensus forecast assumed stabilization of inflation at 4.0%. The chances of an interest rate cut at the July meeting of the Monetary Policy Council have decreased from a low level to an even lower one. However, this does not change the fact that by the third quarter of this year, inflation will reach the target level (2.5%).
16 hours ago
Rates in Poland will be kept unchanged this week
The highlight of the week is clearly the MPC meeting. We do not believe it to be a high-stakes one and see the Council as unwilling to ease monetary policy now (as clearly communicated by several members), but the new projections will provide a framework and justification for future rate cuts.
6 days ago
Polish retail sales return to normalcy after Easter
Retail sales increased by 4.4% yoy in May (in constant prices), in line with consensus. The slowdown in sales is mainly due to the normalization of food sales after the Easter period. However, growth in durable goods sales remain high. With complete data for the first two months of Q2, we can estimate GDP growth at 3.5% yoy, which constitutes a modest acceleration compared to Q1 (3.2% yoy).
1 week ago
Mixed signals from Poland's labour market
Today’s wage data provides relief for analysts and monetary policy makers — the significant decline in wage growth suggests that last month’s concerning figures were driven by one-off factors. Employment also unexpectedly declined, which, unlike the wage data, does not constitute a positive signal.
1 week ago
Poland’s government budget data suggest low risk of budget revision
Today, we saw some relevant macro data readings from Poland’s economy. More releases of May data will be published tomorrow (retail sales, money demand) and on Wednesday (unemployment rate).
2 weeks ago
Poland imports more than ever — from goods to capital
Today, the key release will be Poland’s core inflation, although the upcoming week will be dominated by news from the US. Tomorrow we will see US retail sales and industrial production data, while Wednesday will bring the Fed’s interest rate decision. The end of the week should be quiet due to Thursday’s holiday in both Poland and the US.