2 days ago
Poland’s moment. How it got rich, how it transforms into a smart and resilient economy.
For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, being increasingly cited around the world as an example of a successful transformation — and sometimes even an economic miracle. This success is no coincidence, but the result of the consistent efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In our latest report we summarize the country’s achievements to date and outline ambitious goals for the next 10 years.
3 days ago
For the MPC, caution prevails over macroeconomic indicators
Not a lot going on this week. The macro calendar will be empty until Friday. The end of the week brings the release of final CPI data and monthly balance of payments for April.
1 week ago
Perfect conditions for rate cuts in Poland
Macro Compass June 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
1 week ago
Surprisingly strong investments in the first quarter
GUS confirmed today that GDP in the first quarter grew by 3.2% yoy and 0.7% qoq (seasonally adjusted). What is surprising, however, is the structure of GDP growth. Contrary to the pessimism emanating from almost every Q1 data, investments increased by an impressive 6.3% yoy. In light of these data, our forecast that investment will grow by 8.6% this year is still valid.
1 week ago
Suprising presidential election results in Poland
The beginning of the week will be marked by analyses of the results of the presidential elections in Poland. This week the MPC will decide on interest rates, but we do not expect any changes. In the core markets, the beginning of June will pass in anticipation of the ECB decision on Thursday and the reading of US payrolls on Friday. On the way, the final PMI data in Europe and the US for May will be published, as well as the flash estimate of May inflation in the eurozone.
1 week ago
Inflation in Poland lower-than-expected again
Consumer inflation (CPI) in Poland once again surprised with a stronger-than-expected rate of decline. According to the flash estimate, it fell to 4.1% yoy in May (we assumed 4.2%, consensus forecast 4.3%). It is worth noting that prices fell by 0.2% month-on-month - this is the first price drop since September 2023. Inflation will very likely reach the inflation target (2.5%) as early as the third quarter of this year. In our opinion, the macroeconomic conditions for cutting interest rates are excellent.