Search results
Selected tag: inflation
1 week ago
Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state
MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 weeks ago
Inflation below the target and expectations opened the door to December rate cut
Breaking! According to the flash estimate, Poland’s CPI fell to 2.4% yoy in November, below the NBP’s inflation target (2.5%) and lower than market expectations (2.6%). The lower reading was driven by broadly distributed, small surprises across most price categories, while core inflation declined to around 2.7-2.8% yoy. The data increase the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) in December. Looking ahead to 2026, inflation is expected to stabilize near the target.
5 weeks ago
MPC to deliver final rate cut of the year
MacroCompass November - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
Inflation reading brings June in October
The flash estimate of CPI inflation in October is slightly below the consensus forecast (2.8% y/y vs. the expected 2.9% y/y). This means that inflation has returned to the level seen in June last year. However, the biggest surprise comes from core inflation which fell from 3.2% y/y in September to 2.9% y/y in October. In our opinion, today's reading determines that there will be an interest rate cut at the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Council.
2 months ago
Inflation stands still, while the MPC sits on the fence
MacroCompass October 2025 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 months ago
Inflation has stagnated, the MPC has straddled
September flash reading of Poland's CPI surprised slightly to the downside, remaining at 2.9% year-on-year, below market expectations. The surprise stems primarily from lower food prices, while core inflation continues to decline very slowly. Today's data increases uncertainty about the timing of interest rate cut, although in our view, November remains the most likely date.