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Selected tag: inflation
1 week ago
Perfect conditions for rate cuts in Poland
Macro Compass June 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
2 weeks ago
Inflation in Poland lower-than-expected again
Consumer inflation (CPI) in Poland once again surprised with a stronger-than-expected rate of decline. According to the flash estimate, it fell to 4.1% yoy in May (we assumed 4.2%, consensus forecast 4.3%). It is worth noting that prices fell by 0.2% month-on-month - this is the first price drop since September 2023. Inflation will very likely reach the inflation target (2.5%) as early as the third quarter of this year. In our opinion, the macroeconomic conditions for cutting interest rates are excellent.
5 weeks ago
Awaiting the first rate cut in Poland since 2023
Macro Compass May 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
1 month ago
Lower-than-expected Poland inflation = interest rate cut in May
Another, but this time a small one but still, disinflationary surprise - the flash estimate of Polish consumer inflation (CPI) showed a strong drop in April to 4.2% yoy from almost 5% in the first quarter. Market expectations were at 4.3% yoy. This is next, sufficient argument for the Monetary Policy Council to cut interest rates at the nearest May decision meeting, in our opinion by 50 bps.
2 months ago
End of inflationary "plateau" in Poland. Now it is time for solid disinflation
In the final reading, the StatOffice confirmed March CPI for Poland at 4.9% yoy. Now it is time for solid disinflation.
2 months ago
US tariff policy steals the show
Macro Compass April 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets