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Selected tag: inflation
2 days ago
April inflation in Poland above forecasts – oil shock increasingly visible in the economy
April flash reading of Poland’s CPI surprised negatively, indicating an increase to 3.2% yoy from 3.0% in March. The biggest surprises concerned a shallower-than-expected decline in fuel prices, an increase in energy prices, and core inflation. The data suggest mounting price pressures across a broader basket in response to the current fuel crisis. The scenario of a prolonged crisis is slowly becoming the baseline. In our view, inflation will exceed 4% yoy by the end of 2026.
5 days ago
Poland: public spending like Sweden, budget revenues like Spain
This week will be rich in macroeconomic events, particularly central bank policy meetings, as both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are set to announce their interest rate decisions. Market attention will also focus on inflation data releases as well as preliminary first-quarter 2026 GDP readings. In Poland, investors will await Thursday’s publication of April inflation data. However, market dynamics are likely to remain dominated by developments in the Middle East.
3 weeks ago
Ceasefire takes tail risks off the table
MacroCompass April 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
4 weeks ago
Fuels fuelled Poland's March inflation
Poland’s consumer inflation (CPI) surged in March to 3.0% yoy, mainly driven by rising fuel prices (+15.4% mom). Apart from the fuels, price pressures remain limited for now – core inflation and food prices are stable. In turn, in April we expect CPI to decline to around 2.5% yoy because of the government program reducing indirect taxes on fuels. Therefore, the March 3.0% yoy reading could represent a local peak this year. The Monetary Policy Council will remain cautious amid elevated uncertainty, and we do not expect interest rate changes in 2026.
1 month ago
Inflation from the world that no longer exists
This year's revision of the consumption basket weights did not significantly alter the picture of Poland's inflation – both January and February CPI remained at 2.1% yoy, while core inflation stays elevated, particularly in the services sector. The effects of higher fuel prices resulting from the Middle East conflict will become visible starting from the March reading. In the coming months, the Monetary Policy Council is expected to remain cautious and keep interest rates unchanged.
1 month ago
Only good news from Polish economy
MacroCompass March 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets