Search results
Selected tag: inflation
1 week ago
Rising hawkish tide leaves the NBP behind
MacroCompass June 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 weeks ago
Poland's MPC will remain dovish despite ECB's hawkish turn
In an unusual scheduling arrangement, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. However, no changes to policy rates are expected.
3 weeks ago
Polish inflation slowed in May instead of accelerating – a significant upside surprise in food prices
The May CPI reading in Poland delivered a strong positive surprise, with inflation slowing to 3.1% yoy instead of accelerating to the market consensus of 3.7%. The downside surprise was driven in particular by lower-than-expected food prices and core inflation. The data suggest that second-round effects related to higher fuel prices remain limited for now. As a result, any discussion about potential interest rate hikes can be safely set aside, while the Monetary Policy Council is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode over the coming months, keeping rates unchanged.
5 weeks ago
The global economy running on empty
MacroCompass May 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
April inflation in Poland above forecasts – oil shock increasingly visible in the economy
April flash reading of Poland’s CPI surprised negatively, indicating an increase to 3.2% yoy from 3.0% in March. The biggest surprises concerned a shallower-than-expected decline in fuel prices, an increase in energy prices, and core inflation. The data suggest mounting price pressures across a broader basket in response to the current fuel crisis. The scenario of a prolonged crisis is slowly becoming the baseline. In our view, inflation will exceed 4% yoy by the end of 2026.
1 month ago
Poland: public spending like Sweden, budget revenues like Spain
This week will be rich in macroeconomic events, particularly central bank policy meetings, as both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are set to announce their interest rate decisions. Market attention will also focus on inflation data releases as well as preliminary first-quarter 2026 GDP readings. In Poland, investors will await Thursday’s publication of April inflation data. However, market dynamics are likely to remain dominated by developments in the Middle East.