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Selected tag: inflation
8 hours ago
Poland's CPI close to the target, but core inflation causing concern
Inflation in Poland has entered the inflation target, or to be more precise, within its acceptable deviation range (2.5% ± 1%). According to the flash estimate, CPI fell to 3.1% yoy in July from 4.1% in the previous month. However, the reading surprised negatively. Nevertheless, in our opinion, inflation will remain close to the inflation target for a longer period. We assume it will fall below 3% yoy by the end of 2025.
3 days ago
The week ahead: quiet start, key data later
The week opens on a calm note, with Monday lacking major macro releases and investor focus turning to US–EU trade developments. Momentum will build midweek with the Fed’s rate decision and U.S. labor market data on Friday, while in Poland, Thursday’s flash CPI reading could mark the start of a sustained return to the target range, with inflation likely falling below 3% y/y in July.
2 weeks ago
The last month in Poland with hightened inflation
As usual, mid-month, we have received detailed data from the StatOffice on Poland consumer price inflation (CPI). The flash June estimate of 4.1% yoy was confirmed. What else interesting did we learn from today's reading?
4 weeks ago
A long-unseen surprise of higher inflation in Poland
According to the flash estimate, CPI inflation in Poland accelerated in June to 4.1% yoy from 4.0% in the previous month. The consensus forecast assumed stabilization of inflation at 4.0%. The chances of an interest rate cut at the July meeting of the Monetary Policy Council have decreased from a low level to an even lower one. However, this does not change the fact that by the third quarter of this year, inflation will reach the target level (2.5%).
4 weeks ago
Rates in Poland will be kept unchanged this week
The highlight of the week is clearly the MPC meeting. We do not believe it to be a high-stakes one and see the Council as unwilling to ease monetary policy now (as clearly communicated by several members), but the new projections will provide a framework and justification for future rate cuts.
1 month ago
Perfect conditions for rate cuts in Poland
Macro Compass June 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets