Search results
Selected tag: inflation
1 week ago
Inflation under control, public debt under scrutiny
We are back after the holidays with our monthly publication "MacroCompass" including: our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 weeks ago
Rates in Poland will be cut this week
This week’s main event in Poland will be the MPC’s rate decision – we expect a cut by 25 bps. Other than that, the economic calendar will be dominated by readings from the core markets; NFP on Friday and final PMI readings in the first half of the week.
2 weeks ago
Entering a low inflation environment in Poland
The flash Poland's CPI reading for August was at 2.8% yoy, slightly lower than expected. Month-on-month prices fell by 0.1%. A decline in core inflation to approximately 3.1% yoy helped significantly here, suggesting a continuation of disinflationary trend in this category. In our view, we are entering a long-term low-inflation environment in Poland. These are excellent conditions for further interest rate cuts, the first should be at the September meeting.
1 month ago
Poland's CPI close to the target, but core inflation causing concern
Inflation in Poland has entered the inflation target, or to be more precise, within its acceptable deviation range (2.5% ± 1%). According to the flash estimate, CPI fell to 3.1% yoy in July from 4.1% in the previous month. However, the reading surprised negatively. Nevertheless, in our opinion, inflation will remain close to the inflation target for a longer period. We assume it will fall below 3% yoy by the end of 2025.
1 month ago
The week ahead: quiet start, key data later
The week opens on a calm note, with Monday lacking major macro releases and investor focus turning to US–EU trade developments. Momentum will build midweek with the Fed’s rate decision and U.S. labor market data on Friday, while in Poland, Thursday’s flash CPI reading could mark the start of a sustained return to the target range, with inflation likely falling below 3% y/y in July.
2 months ago
The last month in Poland with hightened inflation
As usual, mid-month, we have received detailed data from the StatOffice on Poland consumer price inflation (CPI). The flash June estimate of 4.1% yoy was confirmed. What else interesting did we learn from today's reading?