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1 week ago
NBP’s Dovish Pivot
Last week, the NBP dropped a dovish surprise on us. Today’s calendar is empty, but the remainder of the week should prove more eventful. In Poland, attention will focus on the final inflation release and the government bond auction. In the core markets, the spotlight will be firmly on US data, including inflation, retail sales and industrial production. Investors will also be watching the new Fed Chair’s first appearance before Congress.
1 week ago
No pressure to change interest rates in Poland
MacroCompass July/August 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 weeks ago
Polish inflation undershoots expectations again
Poland’s CPI reading once again surprised downwards, confirming significantly weaker-than-expected price pressure in the Polish economy. Inflation slowed to 2.5% yoy in June, primarily due to non-core categories: fuel and food prices. At the same time, core inflation remains relatively stable, remaining at an elevated level of 3.0% yoy. As a result, the short-term inflation outlook is improving, but its structure still justifies the Monetary Policy Council's cautious approach and the continued holding of interest rates unchanged.
3 weeks ago
Not a lot of inflation is going to come out of this crisis
This week is all about inflation. On Tuesday Statistics Poland will publish flash CPI reading for June. It will show a sizable decline in inflation, from 3.1% to 2.7% yoy.
5 weeks ago
Rising hawkish tide leaves the NBP behind
MacroCompass June 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
Poland's MPC will remain dovish despite ECB's hawkish turn
In an unusual scheduling arrangement, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. However, no changes to policy rates are expected.