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12 hours ago
Domestic growth drivers are propelling Polish industry
Industrial production rose by 4.1% yoy in May, beating consensus (2.5% yoy) and our forecast (3.4% yoy). The negative effects of the war in the Gulf are, for now, limited mainly to rising costs and reduced availability of components and raw materials in certain segments. Production itself remains strong. In our view, investment demand deserves much of the credit for this.
4 days ago
Why Poland Matters Now
Poland’s economic success is set to continue for another decade or more. It will be supported by three key factors. First, Poland will be at the centre of Europe’s rebuilding of its defence capabilities. Second, it is Europe’s largest energy construction site, which puts it in a strong position in the race to attract AI data centres. Third, Poland will benefit from Europe’s new industrial policy, aimed at containing China. We discuss all of this in a report prepared for the Pekao & BofA Capital Markets Conference in London on 15–16 June 2026.
1 month ago
A spring boom in the Polish economy
March’s performance of the Polish economy is impressive: industrial production surged from 1.3% to 9.4% yoy, while construction output accelerated from -13.7% to 0.4% yoy. The March figures are influenced by a number of one-off factors, particularly the radical improvement in weather conditions and production stockpiling due to fears of shortages in components and raw materials following the outbreak of the Gulf war, but nevertheless, this is an excellent set of data from the Polish economy. Here are our thoughts on activity in industry and construction.
3 months ago
Winter's grip on Polish economy eased somewhat in February
According to the data published today, industrial production rose by 1.5% yoy in February, while construction output fell by 13.7% yoy. In both cases, this marks an improvement compared to the extremely poor January. Nevertheless, the weakness in construction production, driven by weather conditions, will weigh on Poland’s economic growth in the first quarter. The delay in construction investment is one of the reasons why we decided to lower GDP growth forecasts for this year (from 4.0 to 3.8%).
4 months ago
Poland’s industrial production: where statistical base meets harsh weather conditions
The frosty January left its mark on Polish industry – energy and heating proved to be among the strongest sectors of the freezing economy (+18.7% y/y); while sub-zero temperatures brought construction and assembly production to a halt (-12.8% y/y). The readings come as no surprise – after all, we had the coldest January in a decade.
4 months ago
Polish economy shifted into higher gear in December
Industrial and construction output exceeded consensus by around 4 pp. The releases were strong enough to raise estimates for economic growth at the end of the year. In light of updated estimates, GDP growth reached 4% in the fourth quarter and amounted to 3.6–3.7% in the whole 2025.