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1 week ago
Polish economy shifted into higher gear in December
Industrial and construction output exceeded consensus by around 4 pp. The releases were strong enough to raise estimates for economic growth at the end of the year. In light of updated estimates, GDP growth reached 4% in the fourth quarter and amounted to 3.6–3.7% in the whole 2025.
1 month ago
Polish economy in November: worse sentiment in industry, positive signals from the labour market
The last such interesting day before Christmas, with a full calendar of macroeconomic data, also brought a festive "package" of monthly data from the Polish economy. November data from the real economy surprised negatively, while the labour market delivered positive readings.
2 months ago
Another strong month for Poland’s industry
The October reading for Poland’s industrial sector confirms that it remains on a solid path toward further recovery. Output increased by a robust 3.2% yoy and 5.4% mom, remaining at highest level ever recorded, excluding last month’s reading. This marks a strong start to the fourth quarter and supports our forecast of an acceleration in GDP growth toward year-end and throughout the coming year.
3 months ago
Polish industry returned from holidays in a bullish mood
The September figures from the Polish industry look outstanding. Industrial production surged by 7.4% yoy and 4.1% mom (s.a.), making September’s output the highest in history. While it’s important to approach the September data with caution, they fit the positive trend seen for several months like a glove. They also support our forecast of accelerating GDP in the second half of the year.
4 months ago
As Industry Gains Traction, Construction Struggles to Rebound
Industrial production rose by 0.7% yoy in August, broadly in line with expectations (our forecast: 0.2%; market consensus: 1.0%). After adjusting for seasonality, this translates to a 1.5% yoy increase. In contrast, construction output disappointed, declining by nearly 7% yoy in the same month. While the weakness in residential construction is unsurprising given elevated interest rates, the continued stagnation in infrastructure investment remains more difficult to explain. We still expect improvement in this regard.
5 months ago
Spring in the summer: some good news from Poland’s real sphere
July data from the Polish economy look fairly positive. Today, Statistics Poland (GUS) reported a 2.9% yoy increase in industrial production (above consensus) and a 0.6% yoy rise in construction output. In particular, signs of revival are visible in residential construction. Thus, the third quarter begins on a slightly optimistic note, though it is still too early to assess how GDP growth may be shaping up in the summer months.