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Selected tag: industry
3 weeks ago
Spring in the summer: some good news from Poland’s real sphere
July data from the Polish economy look fairly positive. Today, Statistics Poland (GUS) reported a 2.9% yoy increase in industrial production (above consensus) and a 0.6% yoy rise in construction output. In particular, signs of revival are visible in residential construction. Thus, the third quarter begins on a slightly optimistic note, though it is still too early to assess how GDP growth may be shaping up in the summer months.
1 month ago
Poland's industrial production (temporarily?) hits the brakes
Following several months of solid readings, industrial production has underperformed, recording a yoy decline of 0.1%. This raises concerns regarding the long-anticipated recovery of the domestic industrial sector and its ability to break free from prolonged stagnation. However, one data point does not constitute a trend, and today’s figure alone is insufficient to justify a long-term pessimistic outlook.
3 months ago
The beginning of the end for Polish industry’s multi-year stagnation
After several consecutive disappointments, industrial production surprised positively, growing by 1.2% yoy. Nevertheless, several such months are needed to end the years-long stagnation of Polish industry. A sustainable rebound in foreign demand (i.e. European) will be crucial here.
4 months ago
Disappointing Spring for Polish industry and construction
This year we can hardly find any data that surprised us positively. March hasn’t brought it either – the yoy increase in industrial production in March turned out to be 1 p.p. lower than forecast, which fits the long-term stagnation of the sector. Construction output has been even more disappointing, as it shrank by 1.1% (compared to the expected increase of 5.5% yoy). Downside risks to economic growth are therefore accumulating.
5 months ago
Disappointing February for industry and construction
Today, Statistics Poland published data on industrial and construction output for February. Both disappointed, albeit to a small extent. Industrial production shrank by 2% yoy (- 1% expected), while construction output remained unchanged yoy (+2-2.5% expected). In the following commentary, we discuss these disappointments and their implications. However, we do not change our view on the entire year of 2025.
6 months ago
The Polish investment recovery: the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end
Today, Statistics Poland published new data on industrial and construction output. The former turned out to be close to the consensus forecast (-1% yoy), while the latter (+4.3% yoy) surprised to the upside. The growth rates are not spectacular, but we perceive them as part of a long process that will result in significant GDP growth acceleration this year.