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Selected tag: industry
3 weeks ago
The beginning of the end for Polish industry’s multi-year stagnation
After several consecutive disappointments, industrial production surprised positively, growing by 1.2% yoy. Nevertheless, several such months are needed to end the years-long stagnation of Polish industry. A sustainable rebound in foreign demand (i.e. European) will be crucial here.
1 month ago
Disappointing Spring for Polish industry and construction
This year we can hardly find any data that surprised us positively. March hasn’t brought it either – the yoy increase in industrial production in March turned out to be 1 p.p. lower than forecast, which fits the long-term stagnation of the sector. Construction output has been even more disappointing, as it shrank by 1.1% (compared to the expected increase of 5.5% yoy). Downside risks to economic growth are therefore accumulating.
2 months ago
Disappointing February for industry and construction
Today, Statistics Poland published data on industrial and construction output for February. Both disappointed, albeit to a small extent. Industrial production shrank by 2% yoy (- 1% expected), while construction output remained unchanged yoy (+2-2.5% expected). In the following commentary, we discuss these disappointments and their implications. However, we do not change our view on the entire year of 2025.
3 months ago
The Polish investment recovery: the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end
Today, Statistics Poland published new data on industrial and construction output. The former turned out to be close to the consensus forecast (-1% yoy), while the latter (+4.3% yoy) surprised to the upside. The growth rates are not spectacular, but we perceive them as part of a long process that will result in significant GDP growth acceleration this year.
4 months ago
Disappointing end to 2024 in Polish industry
Polish industry disappointed again, having grown by a mere 0.2% yoy in December. In hindsight, the October spike in industrial output indeed was too good to be true. Looking ahead, most of the drags on Polish industry will fade in 2025.
6 months ago
An unexpected rebound in the Polish industry
In recent months, the industrial sector has accustomed us to disappointing results. However, the losing streak has ended—industrial production in October grew by 4.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding forecasts (1–1.5% year-on-year). It feels like a case of "reverse déjà vu"—just as September's retail sales seemed too bad to be true, October's industrial production appears almost too good to be true. In the following sections, we analyze this result and propose some hypotheses.