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1 week ago
A spring boom in the Polish economy
March’s performance of the Polish economy is impressive: industrial production surged from 1.3% to 9.4% yoy, while construction output accelerated from -13.7% to 0.4% yoy. The March figures are influenced by a number of one-off factors, particularly the radical improvement in weather conditions and production stockpiling due to fears of shortages in components and raw materials following the outbreak of the Gulf war, but nevertheless, this is an excellent set of data from the Polish economy. Here are our thoughts on activity in industry and construction.
1 month ago
Winter's grip on Polish economy eased somewhat in February
According to the data published today, industrial production rose by 1.5% yoy in February, while construction output fell by 13.7% yoy. In both cases, this marks an improvement compared to the extremely poor January. Nevertheless, the weakness in construction production, driven by weather conditions, will weigh on Poland’s economic growth in the first quarter. The delay in construction investment is one of the reasons why we decided to lower GDP growth forecasts for this year (from 4.0 to 3.8%).
2 months ago
Poland’s industrial production: where statistical base meets harsh weather conditions
The frosty January left its mark on Polish industry – energy and heating proved to be among the strongest sectors of the freezing economy (+18.7% y/y); while sub-zero temperatures brought construction and assembly production to a halt (-12.8% y/y). The readings come as no surprise – after all, we had the coldest January in a decade.
3 months ago
Polish economy shifted into higher gear in December
Industrial and construction output exceeded consensus by around 4 pp. The releases were strong enough to raise estimates for economic growth at the end of the year. In light of updated estimates, GDP growth reached 4% in the fourth quarter and amounted to 3.6–3.7% in the whole 2025.
4 months ago
Polish economy in November: worse sentiment in industry, positive signals from the labour market
The last such interesting day before Christmas, with a full calendar of macroeconomic data, also brought a festive "package" of monthly data from the Polish economy. November data from the real economy surprised negatively, while the labour market delivered positive readings.
5 months ago
Another strong month for Poland’s industry
The October reading for Poland’s industrial sector confirms that it remains on a solid path toward further recovery. Output increased by a robust 3.2% yoy and 5.4% mom, remaining at highest level ever recorded, excluding last month’s reading. This marks a strong start to the fourth quarter and supports our forecast of an acceleration in GDP growth toward year-end and throughout the coming year.