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Selected tag: industry
3 weeks ago
Another strong month for Poland’s industry
The October reading for Poland’s industrial sector confirms that it remains on a solid path toward further recovery. Output increased by a robust 3.2% yoy and 5.4% mom, remaining at highest level ever recorded, excluding last month’s reading. This marks a strong start to the fourth quarter and supports our forecast of an acceleration in GDP growth toward year-end and throughout the coming year.
1 month ago
Polish industry returned from holidays in a bullish mood
The September figures from the Polish industry look outstanding. Industrial production surged by 7.4% yoy and 4.1% mom (s.a.), making September’s output the highest in history. While it’s important to approach the September data with caution, they fit the positive trend seen for several months like a glove. They also support our forecast of accelerating GDP in the second half of the year.
2 months ago
As Industry Gains Traction, Construction Struggles to Rebound
Industrial production rose by 0.7% yoy in August, broadly in line with expectations (our forecast: 0.2%; market consensus: 1.0%). After adjusting for seasonality, this translates to a 1.5% yoy increase. In contrast, construction output disappointed, declining by nearly 7% yoy in the same month. While the weakness in residential construction is unsurprising given elevated interest rates, the continued stagnation in infrastructure investment remains more difficult to explain. We still expect improvement in this regard.
3 months ago
Spring in the summer: some good news from Poland’s real sphere
July data from the Polish economy look fairly positive. Today, Statistics Poland (GUS) reported a 2.9% yoy increase in industrial production (above consensus) and a 0.6% yoy rise in construction output. In particular, signs of revival are visible in residential construction. Thus, the third quarter begins on a slightly optimistic note, though it is still too early to assess how GDP growth may be shaping up in the summer months.
4 months ago
Poland's industrial production (temporarily?) hits the brakes
Following several months of solid readings, industrial production has underperformed, recording a yoy decline of 0.1%. This raises concerns regarding the long-anticipated recovery of the domestic industrial sector and its ability to break free from prolonged stagnation. However, one data point does not constitute a trend, and today’s figure alone is insufficient to justify a long-term pessimistic outlook.
6 months ago
The beginning of the end for Polish industry’s multi-year stagnation
After several consecutive disappointments, industrial production surprised positively, growing by 1.2% yoy. Nevertheless, several such months are needed to end the years-long stagnation of Polish industry. A sustainable rebound in foreign demand (i.e. European) will be crucial here.