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2 weeks ago
Industry plowed ahead in September, construction still disrupted by accounting problems
September was a mirror image of August. While industrial data turned out to be very strong (+4.6% yoy), the construction sector was a major disappointment. However, just as in July, this was due in part to “irregularities in accounting.” The 9% yoy decline should therefore be viewed with some caution. Nevertheless, the Polish economy still looks healthy and vibrant in 2026.
1 month ago
Polish industry suffered an accident in August
In August, industrial production rose by 4.3% yoy, 2 p.p. below the consensus estimate and even further from our forecast. What is most surprising is how unremarkable this reading is – the surprise cannot be attributed to a single sector, as the slowdown was widespread and very even. This leaves two Cs on the table: cycle and calendar. The latter option – making up for the August 15 holiday and good weather during the vacation season – is quite tempting as an ex post explanation. Looking at the bigger picture, trends in Polish industry are positive.
2 months ago
Polish economy in July: strong manufacturing, weird construction
So far, July has been a mixed bag. Strong industrial production (+5.1% yoy) was accompanied by a very weak reading for construction output, which fell by 2.4% yoy. The former is in line with the trend, while the latter may have been a one-off if the issue of distorted accounting raised by Statistics Poland (GUS) was the dominant factor here. Overall, the Polish economy is in good shape.
3 months ago
It was a good quarter for the Polish economy
An acceleration in manufacturing and a rebound in construction and assembly output following the cold spell in the first months of the year gave us the fastest growth in industrial and construction output in over four years – up 3.7% qoq. June itself was merely the culmination of a strong quarter, though it naturally brought solid increases in output. We estimate that in the second quarter of this year, GDP accelerated to 3.8% yoy.
4 months ago
Domestic growth drivers are propelling Polish industry
Industrial production rose by 4.1% yoy in May, beating consensus (2.5% yoy) and our forecast (3.4% yoy). The negative effects of the war in the Gulf are, for now, limited mainly to rising costs and reduced availability of components and raw materials in certain segments. Production itself remains strong. In our view, investment demand deserves much of the credit for this.
4 months ago
Why Poland Matters Now
Poland’s economic success is set to continue for another decade or more. It will be supported by three key factors. First, Poland will be at the centre of Europe’s rebuilding of its defence capabilities. Second, it is Europe’s largest energy construction site, which puts it in a strong position in the race to attract AI data centres. Third, Poland will benefit from Europe’s new industrial policy, aimed at containing China. We discuss all of this in a report prepared for the Pekao & BofA Capital Markets Conference in London on 15–16 June 2026.