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1 day ago
Poland: One More Rate Cut Likely Before Year-End
The macro calendar this week is full of noteworthy data releases from Poland. We started today with an upside revision of CPI inflation for September (from 2.8 to 2.9% y/y). Tomorrow the core inflation reading will be published. On Wednesday, the latest consumer sentiment is scheduled, followed on Thursday by figures on industrial production, construction output, and labor market data for September.
1 month ago
Polish macro in summer hibernation
With limited domestic data, last week’s macro focus shifted to the U.S. and eurozone, where GDP and inflation figures weighed the expectations around policy trajectories. This week, Poland remains in a data lull, while markets look, yet again, to releases from the EU and U.S. economies – particularly trade balances, sentiment indices, industrial orders and manufacturing activity.
3 months ago
For the MPC, caution prevails over macroeconomic indicators
Not a lot going on this week. The macro calendar will be empty until Friday. The end of the week brings the release of final CPI data and monthly balance of payments for April.
4 months ago
Poland’s trade balance still in the red
Last week we have learned that Polish economy in 1Q 2025 grew in line with expectations, but the balance of trade in March surprised strongly to the downside. This week will be another interesting time in Polish economy as we will get industrial production, construction output and labour market data for April. We are a bit more optimistic than consensus with regard to the first figure (1.8% vs 0.4% yoy) and in line with consensus with regard to wage growth (8.1% yoy).
4 months ago
Poland's monetary doves are no longer out
After last week’s MPC seating, important figures from the real economy are awaited. This week provisional data on 1Q25 growth will be published, as well as details of the April’s CPI. Regarding the former figure, we expect 3.2% yoy driven primarily by inventories (2.3 p.p. contribution) and private consumption (1.4 p.p.) with still subdued investment (0.1 p.p.). Regarding the latter, our forecast shows slight slowdown in core inflation to 3.5% yoy. The week will be concluded by the first round of presidential elections, held on Sunday.
4 months ago
Investments in Poland started the year slowly
This will be a short week: May 1st and 3rd are an official public holidays in Poland and May 2nd is an unofficial one. Nevertheless, there are important macro releases scheduled for the week. On Wednesday Statistics Poland will publish flash CPI data for April and on Friday Polish manufacturing PMI will be released.