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1 week ago
A Pleasant Postcard from the Past
We are waiting for final CPI data for the first two months of the year (on Friday). We expect CPI to have risen slightly in February (from 2.1 to 2.2% yoy), but annual basket reweighing might have changed a lot.
3 weeks ago
Global factors weigh on Polish markets ahead of Fitch rating decision
The last week of February will be uneventful in the Polish market, with the string of January real economy data already behind us. The Fitch rating agency will make a decision on Poland's rating on Friday. Meanwhile, core financial markets remain under pressure from geopolitics and potential consequences of Donald Trump's tariffs being rescinded.
1 month ago
Ten economic questions for 2026-2027
As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.
2 months ago
Poland's MPC set to pause the easing cycle
This week is all about the MPC meeting. Picking on cues from the NBP governor (and other MPC members) last month, we expect the Coucil to pause this time. The MPC will resume its easing cycle in March, once it obtains more data and a fresh set of staff projections.
4 months ago
Polish Economy Beats Expectations in September
This week is full of data readings for Polish economy for September. We’ve already received very strong industrial production and moderate wage growth readings. Tomorrow we will get construction output data, and on Wednesday, retails sales. They are likely to point to strong – but not booming – GDP growth in 3Q25.
5 months ago
The NBP's hawkish cut
Today’s macroeconomic calendar remains empty, with the U.S. market closed for a holiday. The focus returns to geopolitical developments (escalation of the U.S.-China trade conflict) as well as speeches by central bank representatives, including events within the framework of the annual IMF and World Bank meetings. Meanwhile, domestic investors will spend the third week of October analyzing macroeconomic data, including the CPI inflation breakdown for September and the balance of payments for August. The Ministry of Finance will conduct a government bond auction.