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Selected tag: US
6 days ago
Rates unchanged, rating unchanged
Globally, markets will follow policy decisions of Fed, BoE, and BoJ. Domestically, we are waiting for Moody’s policy action (and we expect no change of rating) and August manufacturing figures, both of which are scheduled for Friday.
1 week ago
Second time’s the charm: lessons from the latest GDP data from Poland
The NBP is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and we do not expect any changes. The Governor’s press conference the following day is likely to be more relevant than the decision itself.
5 weeks ago
Were Fitch to downgrade Poland’s rating, what would be the consequences?
The main event for the Polish macro calendar this week will be the preliminary Q2 2026 GDP estimate. We expect growth to have accelerated from 3.5% y/y to 3.9% y/y, driven by strong manufacturing and construction activity as well as solid retail sales. We believe investment, inventories, and net exports were the key growth drivers, while the contribution from private consumption remained relatively weak. Confirmation will have to wait until the end of August, when the second GDP release provides a detailed breakdown of growth components.
3 months ago
Feeble consumption growth in 1Q26
A calm week ahead, most awaited event is the ECB’s rate decision (we expect a 25bp hike).
5 months ago
Poland’s MPC takes a wait-and-see approach
It is going to be a relatively quiet week in terms of macroeconomic data releases. Tomorrow, we will receive the final CPI inflation reading for March (consensus: 3.3% yoy; in our view, the figure will come in at 3.5% yoy). In the following days, new information on economic sentiment in the United States will be released.
6 months ago
A Pleasant Postcard from the Past
We are waiting for final CPI data for the first two months of the year (on Friday). We expect CPI to have risen slightly in February (from 2.1 to 2.2% yoy), but annual basket reweighing might have changed a lot.