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3 weeks ago
Polish consumers remain in high spirits
October retail sales data confirm good confidence of Polish consumers. Retail sales grew by 5.4% yoy, surpassing market expectations of 4.0%. Consumers remain in very good shape, with particularly strong demand for durable goods. This increases the likelihood that GDP growth in 4Q25 will reach the long-anticipated 4% yoy.
1 month ago
Polish consumers still showing strength
After positive surprises in industry and construction, we got a slightly disappointing retail sales reading for September, which accelerated from 3.1% to 6.4% yoy, compared to the consensus of 6.8% and our forecast of 8% yoy. Nevertheless, the forecasting error does not stem from a deterioration in the sector’s economic conditions. The positive narrative about the Polish consumer still holds.
2 months ago
Polish consumers in good shape
This time, there were no surprises - retail sales slowed down exactly as economists had expected, from 4.8% to 3.1% yoy. The pace of August sales is therefore close to the average from last year and this year. However, the acceleration we anticipate in the coming months should be noticeable.
3 months ago
Polish private consumption confirms its status as the dark horse of 2025.
Retail sales surprised on the upside, rising by 4.8% yoy. Notably, there was a strong outturn in durable and semi-durable goods sales. The year-to-date 2025 retail sales growth matches the 2024 average, but all signs point to acceleration later this year. Thus, private consumption remains the dark horse of 2025.
4 months ago
June retail sales disappointed, but the outlook for consumption remains positive
The monthly data package from Poland's real economy was complemented by a weak retail sales reading. June's 2.2% year-on-year increase was a disappointing result, significantly below market expectations (4.1% yoy). GDP growth in the second quarter doesn't look to exceed 3.5% yoy. However, the outlook for consumption remains moderately positive.
5 months ago
Polish retail sales return to normalcy after Easter
Retail sales increased by 4.4% yoy in May (in constant prices), in line with consensus. The slowdown in sales is mainly due to the normalization of food sales after the Easter period. However, growth in durable goods sales remain high. With complete data for the first two months of Q2, we can estimate GDP growth at 3.5% yoy, which constitutes a modest acceleration compared to Q1 (3.2% yoy).