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1 week ago
June retail sales disappointed, but the outlook for consumption remains positive
The monthly data package from Poland's real economy was complemented by a weak retail sales reading. June's 2.2% year-on-year increase was a disappointing result, significantly below market expectations (4.1% yoy). GDP growth in the second quarter doesn't look to exceed 3.5% yoy. However, the outlook for consumption remains moderately positive.
5 weeks ago
Polish retail sales return to normalcy after Easter
Retail sales increased by 4.4% yoy in May (in constant prices), in line with consensus. The slowdown in sales is mainly due to the normalization of food sales after the Easter period. However, growth in durable goods sales remain high. With complete data for the first two months of Q2, we can estimate GDP growth at 3.5% yoy, which constitutes a modest acceleration compared to Q1 (3.2% yoy).
1 month ago
Poland imports more than ever — from goods to capital
Today, the key release will be Poland’s core inflation, although the upcoming week will be dominated by news from the US. Tomorrow we will see US retail sales and industrial production data, while Wednesday will bring the Fed’s interest rate decision. The end of the week should be quiet due to Thursday’s holiday in both Poland and the US.
2 months ago
The best retail sales reading in three years
Poland's retail sales was expected to accelerate significantly in April (to 4% yoy), however, it increased unexpectedly the most in three years (7.6% yoy). In addition to the late Easter holiday, improvement in consumer sentiment is probably responsible for such a good result. This is a good prognosis for consumption in the second quarter this year.
3 months ago
Polish retail sales posted a slight decrease in March
Retail sales fell by 0.3% yoy in March, slightly below forecasts that predicted an increase of 0.3-0.4% yoy. Last month, consumer behavior was influenced by two factors: late Easter, which reduced food sales (a transitory factor), and the rebound in durable goods sales. Therefore, this reading is seen as positive, a break from the general March gloom.
4 months ago
February's chill affected Polish consumers as well
Retail sales fell by 0.5% yoy in February, significantly below forecasts, which predicted an increase of 3% yoy. Although sector-specific factors played a role in February, the slowdown affected almost all sales categories. Consequently, we are back to the scenario of 3% yoy consumption growth in 2025, without significant upside risks.