Strong year-end performance in the Polish labour market
The December wage reading substantially exceeded analysts’ expectations. While the consensus had pointed to a 7% yoy growth, the actual figure came in at a robust 8.6%. In our view, this was largely driven by generous holiday bonuses, an effect that should to a significant extent fade in January. Positive signals were also visible in employment: its annual growth rate improved to -0.7% yoy from -0.8%, in line with market expectations.
Average wage in the enterprise sector increased by 8.6% yoy in December, up from 7.1% yoy in November, representing a very strong upside surprise relative to the market consensus (6.9%). What explains this surprise? Its main source were year-end and holiday bonuses, which are inherently difficult to forecast. This year, end-of-year payments were clearly more generous than a year earlier and spread across a broad range of sectors. The strongest wage increases were recorded in “agriculture and forestry”, “electricity production and supply”, and “transport”. Nevertheless, wage growth in the remaining categories was also exceptionally strong. At this stage, it is difficult to determine whether this was purely a bonus-driven effect or whether we are witnessing a halt in the deceleration of wage growth. The January release should be decisive in this respect, as it will clarify the extent to which one-off bonuses contributed to the elevated pace of wage growth in December.
Despite the pronounced upside surprise in December, we continue to believe that wage growth will slow markedly in 2026. All available soft data on wage pressure and employers’ planned pay rises point to a continuation of the downward trend in wage dynamics. Moreover, labour demand has been weakening steadily and is currently at levels last seen in 2017. These factors should translate into a deceleration of wage growth to below 6% in 2026.
Annualized enterprise sector wage momentum (%, seasonally adjusted)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
Average employment in the enterprise sector declined by 0.7% yoy in December, compared with a drop of 0.8% yoy in November. This outcome was fully in line with both market expectations and our own forecast. The anticipated improvement in employment growth rate stemmed from a relatively low base a year earlier: December 2024 saw an unusually deep employment decline for that month (-10k jobs), marking the weakest December reading since 2013. As a result, conditions were favourable for closing 2025 with a higher yoy employment growth rate than that observed throughout the previous year. According to Statistics Poland, the number of jobs fell by 4k mom in December. Overall, 2025 can be described as a midpoint between the two preceding years: total employment declined by 45k jobs over the year, compared with a drop of 62k a year earlier and 35k two years earlier. The Polish labour market therefore remains in a state of stagnation, which in our view is likely to persist in the current year.
Cumulative change in employment since January of the given year (thousands of jobs)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
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