Polish consumers still showing strength
After positive surprises in industry and construction, we got a slightly disappointing retail sales reading for September, which accelerated from 3.1% to 6.4% yoy, compared to the consensus of 6.8% and our forecast of 8% yoy. Nevertheless, the forecasting error does not stem from a deterioration in the sector’s economic conditions. The positive narrative about the Polish consumer still holds.
We didn’t get a hat trick in September: while industrial and construction output surprised clearly to the upside, retail sales landed rather on the disappointing side of expectations. Sales accelerated from 3.1% to 6.4% yoy, which is slightly below the consensus (around 7%) and our forecast (8% yoy). Why is this result a small—yet still real—disappointment? Last month, it wasn’t hard for retail sales to show a strong acceleration, as both the number of working days and the very low base from the previous year were favorable factors (September 2024 was shockingly weak for retail sales, and to this day, the reason remains unclear).
Retail sales dynamics in September 2025, %mom in constant prices
Source: StatOffice via Macrobond
Nevertheless, a closer look at the details of the September reading shows that the surprise was evenly distributed across all categories - none of them stood out significantly. The trends and mechanisms we had counted on and observed in recent months have not disappeared:
- A strong result in the sale of durable goods, particularly furniture and household appliances and electronics (+16.1% yoy).
- Solid growth in sales of textiles, clothing, and footwear, despite the relatively late start of autumn collections. This same factor (the weather) suggests that seasonal sales in this category will be concentrated in October, which should push the year-on-year growth above 20%.
- Further acceleration in fuel sales (up to 7.1% yoy). Good months tend to come in clusters, and with stable fuel prices, this trend is likely to continue in the coming months.
We now know everything that monthly data can tell us about Q3. Following the September data releases, we are not changing our view on GDP growth for this period. We estimate that Poland’s GDP accelerated to 3.9% yoy, and that it will grow by 3.6% for the full year 2025. Consumption has been the dark horse of the year for several months now, and today’s data confirms its status.
This publication (hereinafter referred to as the ‘Publication’) prepared by the Macroeconomic Analysis Department of Bank Polska Kasa Opieki Spółka Akcyjna (hereinafter referred to as ‘Pekao S.A.’) constitutes a commercial publication and is for information purposes only. Nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever, in particular it shall not constitute an offer within the meaning of Article 66 of the Civil Code. The publication does not constitute a recommendation provided within the framework of investment advisory services, investment analysis, financial analysis or any other recommendation of a general nature concerning transactions in financial instruments, an investment recommendation within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse or investment advice of a general nature concerning investment in financial instruments, and the information contained therein cannot be regarded as a proposal to purchase any financial instruments, an investment or tax advisory service or as a form of providing legal assistance. The publication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements ensuring the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibitions on the dissemination of investment research and does not constitute investment research.