Average wage in the enterprise sector increased by 5.9% yoy in June, up from 5.8% in May. This was significantly above both the consensus forecast (5.5%) and our own projection (5.4%). There were plenty of reasons to expect a slowdown in wage growth, stemming from both favourable base effects from a year ago and the unwinding of temporary factors from the previous month. However, these considerations proved largely irrelevant in light of what happened in manufacturing in June.

Wages in manufacturing rose by a robust 6.6% yoy, representing an acceleration of as much as 1.5 percentage points relative to May and contributing approximately 0.5 percentage points to the overall June wage reading. Moreover, this was the strongest June wage growth reading in manufacturing on record since at least 2010, the earliest period for which Statistics Poland provides detailed data. None of the potential explanations for this uptick we have examined finds clear support in the available data. The first hypothesis, that wage growth accelerated in response to strong industrial activity, is inconsistent with June industrial output figures. A second possibility is the payment of sizeable bonuses or wage increases in one or several manufacturing plants. However, according to media reports, none of the announced payments of this type appears large enough to have had such a pronounced impact on aggregate wage growth. Nevertheless, in the absence of more convincing alternatives, we lean towards the latter explanation. It is possible that June saw a concentration of bonus, severance, or other extraordinary payments that were difficult for forecasters to capture given the limited transparency surrounding such developments. As a result, we view the surge in manufacturing wages as a one-off phenomenon.

If the manufacturing effect is excluded, today's figures are broadly consistent with our forecast for wage growth this year. Should it indeed prove temporary, July is likely to bring a significant correction in wage growth. We therefore continue to expect average wages to increase by around 5.5% in 2026, a forecast that remains materially below the market consensus. Admittedly, the June reading introduces some upside risk to this forecast. However, it does not alter the key factors underpinning our expectation of gradually slowing wage growth. Labour demand remains relatively weak, while inflation continues to surprise on the downside. Together, these conditions provide a favourable backdrop for a further moderation in wage growth.

Contribution of individual sectors to the pickup in yoy wage growth in June (pp, vs. May)

Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research

Average employment in the enterprise sector declined by 0.9% yoy in June, unchanged from May. The reading was in line with both consensus expectations and our forecast. Employment fell by 2k jobs mom. As a result, the trajectory of employment is currently tracking almost exactly midway between the paths observed in 2024 and 2025, a pattern that is unlikely to change in the near term.

Change in employment since January of each year (thousand jobs)

Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research