Polish consumers in good shape
This time, there were no surprises - retail sales slowed down exactly as economists had expected, from 4.8% to 3.1% yoy. The pace of August sales is therefore close to the average from last year and this year. However, the acceleration we anticipate in the coming months should be noticeable.
In August, retail sales broke with the pattern of alternating positive and negative surprises, and after a strong July, we saw data nearly perfectly in line with the consensus (+3.1% yoy). The August result is close to last year’s and this year’s average growth. In many ways, it was a very uneventful reading. However, a few details stand out and are worth a closer look.
Retail sales by category (constant prices, % yoy)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Analizy
- Durable goods hold steady. In August, there was only a slight slowdown in durable goods sales - in the case of furniture and home appliances from 15.3% to 13.9% yoy, and for cars from 10.7% to 9.4% yoy. In both cases, it’s enough to point to the calendar as the slowdown can be fully explained by a drop in working/shopping days.
- A cool August didn’t favor consumption. As we expected, the relatively cool August (compared to the previous 2–3 years) did not promote purchases of food and beverages, resulting in a 3.4% yoy drop in this category after a 0.4% yoy decrease the previous month. What consumers didn’t spend on ice cream, drinks, and meals, they partly redirected to clothing and footwear—which, in our assumptions, was supposed to slow down but actually accelerated (from around 15% to 19% yoy). Perhaps autumn shopping began earlier this year.
- Strong fuel sales, weak shopping mall sales. Fuel sales accelerated from 0.7% to 6.1% yoy, while sales of newspapers, books, and in other specialized stores unexpectedly fell by 2% yoy after a 3% rise the previous month.
Retail food sales vs. average August temperature
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Analizy
In general, the August retail sales and their details don’t trigger any warning lights for us. The slowdown was due to "technical" reasons, not current economic conditions. Moreover, further improvement in consumer sentiment suggests that the willingness to consume remains high. As we’ve pointed out many times, private consumption turned out to be the economic dark horse of 2025, although its inherent import intensity means that consumption growth alone is not enough to accelerate overall GDP growth above the observed 3–3.5% y/y. For that, we need exports, and that time will come in the coming quarters.
Retail sales and private consumption (seasonally adjusted data, end of 2019 = 100%)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Analizy
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