Poland’s wage growth reaches a five-year low
Wage growth decelerated markedly in April to 5.4% yoy, down from 6.6% a month earlier, surprising the market consensus but not us. This was the result of a combination of several one-off factors, which pushed the reading to its lowest level in five years. Meanwhile, employment maintained its pace of decline at -0.9% yoy.
Average gross wage in the enterprise sector increased by 5.4% yoy in April, compared with 6.6% in March. This reading came in below the market consensus (6.1%) and close to our forecast (5.6%). As we already noted in our monthly report, all signs pointed to a deceleration in wage growth in April — the only uncertainty concerned its magnitude. What were those signs? First, the effect of an elevated reference base from the previous month (approx. 0.4 percentage points), driven by bonus payments in the energy and mining sections. Second, the effect of a high base from the previous year. In April 2025, a number of one-off factors boosted the reading (approx. 0.3 percentage points), primarily bonus payments in mining and forestry. Third, the lower number of working days mom may also have contributed to the slowdown in wage growth rate.
Recent wage data accurately reflect current developments in the domestic labour market. Labour demand remains weak, which in turn is reducing employees’ bargaining power and translating into a moderation in wage growth. Persistently low inflation (which started to accelerate recently) remains a contribution to this trend, although its impact on wage growth rate operates with a lag. There are numerous arguments supporting a further slowdown in wage growth. In addition to the domestic factors already mentioned, the energy shock remains an important issue. Its consequences, namely higher inflation and, consequently, slower economic growth, will further weigh on labour market readings this year, although the effect is likely to become more pronounced next year.
Contribution of individual sectors to the slowdown in yoy wage growth in March (pp)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
Average employment in the enterprise sector declined by 0.9% yoy in April, matching the rate of decline recorded in March. The reading was in line with both the market consensus and our forecast. The number of jobs fell by 3 thousand mom. As a result, the employment trajectory in 2026 has settled almost exactly midway between the paths observed in 2024 and 2025. Given the evident weakness in labour demand, there is little reason to expect employment dynamics to outperform last year’s trajectory.
Change in employment since January of each year (thousand jobs)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
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