Following major positive surprises in industrial and construction data, the third main measure of monthly economic activity, retail sales, did not surprise. Sales accelerated from 3.1% to 5.3% yoy, very close to the consensus and our own forecast.

Retail sales (constant prices, % yoy)

Source: Macrobond, Pekao Analizy

The main reason for the acceleration in sales was a favourable calendar – in December last year, the number of working days increased by 1 yoy and the number of trading days – by as many as 2 (three Sundays with shops open). In fact, December 2025 was, in this respect, the best December in three years. Additionally, the results for December and November are susceptible to shifts in the distribution of pre-Christmas shopping, which means that sales in these two months have a strong negative correlation. November 2025 was rather weak in this regard, with December making up for lost ground. In fact, if we average the growth rates from the last two months (4.2%), we get a result very close to this year’s average (3.9%).

Retail sales by category (% yoy)

Source: Macrobond

This does not mean that December was a dull month. There are some surprises in the details (compared to our assumptions), which overall can be assessed as positive:

• Sales of furniture and household appliances rose significantly more than we forecasted, by as much as 19.8% yoy. This is a new cyclical peak.
• There was also an unexpected acceleration in the sales of books, newspapers, and other specialist shops. We interpret this as a rise in discretionary spending.
• The jump in food sales (thanks to low bases from the previous month and year) did occur, but was smaller than we assumed.
• Car sales, meanwhile, accelerated only marginally despite the favourable calendar.

Sales of furniture and household appliances (constant prices, % yoy)

Source: Macrobond

The reading in line with forecasts is therefore a combination of strong results for durable and discretionary goods consumption, and weakness in food and car sales. This pattern also matches the higher declared willingness of Polish consumers to make major purchases, which we have been noticing for some time. Durable goods consumption should also be sensitive to the level of interest rates, which in recent months have been falling.

Retail sales rose in 2025 by an average of 3.9%, following an increase of 3.3% the previous year. A similar acceleration can be expected in the broader measure of household shopping activity, i.e., private consumption. We estimate its growth at 3.6%, which ultimately was noticeably faster than forecasts made a year ago. 2025 was supposed to be a year of investment, but to an equal extent turned out to be a year of consumption. What awaits us in 2026? Consumer income growth is expected to be slightly lower than this year – and the same goes for private consumption. The acceleration in GDP growth will be driven by investment and exports.