The average wage in the enterprise sector increased by 9.3% yoy in April, compared to a 7.7% yoy increase in March. This reading represents a significant surprise for both us and the consensus (both at 8.1%). Several factors contributed to the acceleration in wage growth in April:

• First, the base effect from the previous year. In April 2024, a three-month period of relatively high wage raises ended due to an unprecedented increase in the minimum wage. As a result, wage growth in April 2024 decreased by 0.7 percentage points compared to March, representing one of the weakest April readings in recent years, which simultaneously “helped” the today's reading.
• Second, the today's data reflect the impact of Easter falling at a different time compared to last year. Specifically, in 2024, Easter and the surrounding trade Sundays occurred in March, rather than in April as this year. Therefore, more generous payments to employees boosted wage growth rate in this sector in April 2025, while also benefiting from the low base effect in April of the previous year when payments were not influenced by Easter.
• Third, in April, there were unexpected (by analysts) bonus payments and/or wage raises in the mining and forestry sectors. These contributed approximately 0.6 percentage points to today’s reading, but most likely this is a one-off factor.

As a result of the above, the wage momentum (i.e., the annual wage growth implied by the monthly  seasonally adjusted wage growth in April) accelerated by 0.5 percentage points to 8.7% yoy, but in our view, this is only temporary. Nevertheless, such a strong increase in wage growth will likely lead to greater caution in the rhetoric of the Monetary Policy Council, and as a consequence, might result in a delay in interest rate cuts in the coming months.

Wage momentum (% yoy, SA), i.e. what the annual wage growth would be if the current monthly growth rated after seasonal adjustment remained unchanged the entire year

Source: StatOffice, Pekao Research

The average employment in the enterprise sector decreased by 0.8% yoy in April, compared to a 0.9% decline in March. This is also a clear surprise for the consensus, which had expected the growth rate to remain at -0.9%. Furthermore, the consensus forecast expected a contraction in employment on a monthly basis, but contrary to expectations, there was an increase of 3k mom. It appears that, this year, employment will follow a more optimistic path compared to the weak 2024. The economic growth acceleration we forecast, particularly in investments in the second half of the year, could further support employment, which currently seems to be entering a recovery phase.

Cumulative change in employment since January of a given year (thous. full-time positions)

Source: StatOffice, Pekao Research