Average wages in the enterprise sector increased in September by 7.5% yoy, compared to a 7.1% yoy increase in August. The reading was in line with both the market consensus and our forecast (both around 7.5%). The slight acceleration in wage growth in September does not indicate a reversal of the trend of further weakening wage pressure. It is largely the result of, first, a favourable working day difference (+1 yoy and +2 mom), and second, the dissipation of  summer holiday-related shutdowns in factories that occurred in August. These factors are clearly visible in today's wage growth readings in manufacturing (8.4% yoy vs. 7.7% a month earlier), construction (8.3% vs. 6.7%), and trade (6.2% vs. 5.7%). There is no deeper narrative in the September data, and the only surprise turned out to be the lack of surprises; this is the first reading in six months that matched the consensus forecast. At the same time, it confirms what we already knew – the pace of wage growth is gradually declining, ceasing to be an obstacle to further interest rate cuts, which the Monetary Policy Council has frequently pointed to. Wage momentum remains around 7%.

Moreover, due to recent downside surprises in wage growth, we revised our forecasts downward at the beginning of the month for both the current year and the next. For 2025, the revision was somewhat smaller (from 8.6% yoy to 7.9%), while for 2026 we now expect average wage growth of 6.5%, instead of the previously projected 7.4%. This is the result of a faster pace of wage pressure easing, due to inflation converging to the target more quickly than previously assumed and slightly weaker economic growth than we might have expected at the beginning of the year.
 

Annualized corporate sector wage momentum (%, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research

Average employment in the enterprise sector declined in September by 0.8% yoy, the same as the decline recorded in August. This came as no surprise to either the consensus or to us. According to Statistics Poland, the number of full-time jobs decreased by 10k compared to the previous month. Thus, the labour market situation in terms of employment remains steadily weak, and a potential rebound has been postponed to around the middle of next year, possibly slightly earlier. At the same time, at the beginning of the month we decided to revise our data for this indicator. Our current forecast for this year is -0.8%, and for next year we expect an improvement in employment growth to -0.3%.

Cumulative change in employment since January of the given year (thousands of jobs)

Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research