Economic news

• INFLATION: According to the final release, Poland’s CPI accelerated to 3.0% yoy in March from 2.1% yoy in February, in line with the flash estimate. This comes as a mild surprise relative to market consensus, which expected an upward revision to the flash reading due to a potential underestimation of fuel price growth. Meanwhile, core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) increased from 2.5% to 2.7% yoy in March. The main driver of the acceleration in core inflation was higher prices of organized foreign tourism. This is currently the only major core category showing a noticeable response to the consequences of the conflict in the Persian Gulf. In the coming months, additional categories are likely to be affected as second-round effects gradually materialize.
• GDP: Poland’s GDP growth in 4Q25 was revised slightly higher to 4.1% yoy from 4.0% y/y previously reported. We discuss the details in the following sections of the report.
• LABOUR MARKET: Further surprises in the unemployment data: the unemployment rate did not decline in March, remaining at 6.1%, contrary to the seasonal pattern and market consensus (though in line with our expectations). Notably, the number of unemployed increased by about 10k relative to the seasonal pattern. This development was driven not by stronger inflows into unemployment (which actually fell by 3k yoy), but by a decline in outflows from unemployment (down 17k yoy). In our view, similarly to the previous month, the unexpectedly high unemployment reading can be attributed to reduced funding for active labour market policies.
• FOREIGN TRADE: In February, instead of small surpluses, both the current account and the trade balance recorded deficits of around EUR 1 bn. This indicates a modest deterioration in Poland’s external balance relative to the previous year. The 12-month rolling trade balance currently stands at -1.4% of GDP, while the current account balance amounts to -0.9% of GDP. In the coming months, a more pronounced deterioration is likely, reflecting weaker terms of trade following the oil price shock, particularly through higher import prices.

How to make PLN 19 bn in an instant? A story of the GDP revision

On Friday, Statistics Poland (GUS) published an updated estimate of Polish GDP for the years 2024–2025. This is a standard step in the never‑ending process of refining national accounts—new data incorporate more complete information, inter alia, on public finances, SME performance and foreign trade turnover. As usual:

• The GDP revision did not overturn macroeconomic scenarios. The changes are measured in small fractions of a percentage point (0.1–0.2 pp.).
• The revision was procyclical—during the period covered, the economy was accelerating, and we now know that it was accelerating even more strongly than previously thought.

The trajectory of nominal GDP indexin Poland before and after the revision in question

Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research

Nevertheless, we would like to draw readers’ attention to several issues:

1. The outbreak of war in the Gulf means that the 4.1% y/y growth recorded in the fourth quarter of last year may have marked a cyclical peak in GDP growth. As we mentioned in a piece published a month ago, the combination of a harsh winter delaying the seasonal start of construction investment and the impact of higher energy prices on private consumption led us to revise our GDP growth forecast for 2026 downward, from 4.0% to 3.8%. Any further revision will depend on what we see in the hard data from the beginning of the year.
2. The exit from the energy crisis was somewhat faster As of yesterday, we know that the Polish economy grew by 3.2% in 2024 rather than 3.0%, with GUS distributing the revision evenly across quarters. This is mainly a takeaway for chroniclers, but the cumulative impact of revisions over the past two years amounts to around 0.3% for real GDP and 0.5% for nominal GDP. The latter figure is almost PLN 19 bn—a significant sum for a single accounting adjustment.
3. The revision of GDP for 2024 resulted almost exclusively from a reassessment of investment. Previously, GUS reported that investment had declined by 0.9% that year; it has now stated that investment actually increased by 0.4%. This means that the investment trough in 2024 was exceptionally shallow—the cumulative decline in investment amounted to only 4% (whereas in the past it could reach double‑digit levels). Our satisfaction with the strong performance of this category is somewhat tempered by the fact that, on this issue, GUS has been playing ping‑pong from the very beginning. This is already the fourth consecutive estimate of investment for 2024, and so far GUS has reported investment growth twice and a decline twice on an average annual basis. The average annual investment growth figures successively reported by GUS were: +1.3, –2.2, –0.9 and +0.4. We would therefore not bet on the idea that there will be no further revision and a return to negative territory. Nevertheless, this is unlikely to change the fact that—thanks to defence spending and the National Recovery Plan (KPO)—the investment recession was exceptionally short and shallow.
4. The end of last year was even better. For several months now, we have known that the Polish economy ended 2025 with strong momentum; since yesterday, we also know how strong it was. According to the latest data, GDP grew by 4.1% y/y and 1.1% q/q in the fourth quarter. It is clear that we are viewing the economy in the rear‑view mirror, but in one (statistical) sense these data do matter. They raise the already sizeable carryover effect into the following year. Even if the economy were stagnant in every quarter of 2026, average annual GDP growth this year would still come in at nearly 2%.

Comparison of investment cycles in Poland (cumulated % change from the last peak)

Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research

Financial market update

The end of last week brought the most interesting movements on the foreign exchange market. Until early afternoon, the zloty had been strengthening against the base currencies, rising by around 0.02 PLN in both the USD/PLN and EUR/PLN. However, a correction took place in the late afternoon, which fully reversed the zloty’s earlier appreciation. As a result, at today’s opening we saw USDPLN back above 3.60, and EURPLN between 4.23 and 4.24. This shows that it is on the FX market that global investors’ concerns regarding the situation in the Middle East are most quickly reflected. Compared to the currency market, volatility in other financial markets (fixed income, equities) was significantly lower. Riding a wave of optimism linked to the (temporary) opening of the Strait, fixed income investors developed an appetite for buying, thereby pushing the yield on 10-year government bonds below 5.4%. The WIG index also gained ground, though breaking through the 3,700-point level proved impossible. We believe that this week global factors may gradually lose their influence on the domestic market, especially if the peace talks in Islamabad are indeed successful. In such a scenario, investors’ attention will turn to macroeconomic data from the domestic economy which should justify a further improvement in sentiment towards Polish assets. However, until US and Iranian negotiators announce a breakthrough, investors will remain cautious, and domestic asset prices will not trend upwards significantly.