Wage growth in Poland stubbornly below 6%
This time, the surprise in Poland’s labour market data was the absence of any surprise. Wage growth came remarkably close to the market consensus for the first time in a year, with average wages increasing by 5.9% yoy versus expectations of 6.0%. At the same time, employment declined by 0.8% yoy for the third consecutive month. It has been a long time since this data release looked so uneventful.
Average wage in the enterprise sector increased by 5.9% yoy in September, up from 5.6% yoy in August. The reading was broadly in line with both the consensus forecast and our forecast (6.0%). The acceleration in wage growth was driven primarily by two sectors: trade and forestry. Trade has experienced several volatile months, but overall wage growth has remained strong. In particular, wages in the sector expanded by more than 7% yoy in both July and September. Readings of this magnitude were last observed in early 2025, whereas wage increases of around 6% yoy had been the norm throughout most of this year prior to the summer. In forestry, meanwhile, bonus payments and possible pay raises once again distorted the picture, as they have done repeatedly in recent months. Beyond these two sector-specific developments, the September wage reading was remarkably uneventful.
At the same time, today’s data reinforce our forecast of 6.0% average wage growth for this year. The coming months may bring some renewed volatility, owing to base effects related to the disruptions observed in the transport sector in late 2025. It remains difficult to determine whether those fluctuations reflected one-off factors or a change in seasonal patterns. Nevertheless, average wage growth in the final quarter of this year should remain around 6% or slightly below, and in our view there is currently little reason to expect wage growth to settle materially below that threshold on a sustained basis.
Average wage in the enterprise sector (% yoy)
Source: Statistics Poland (GUS), Pekao Research
Average employment in the enterprise sector declined by 0.8% yoy in September, unchanged from August. The reading was in line with both consensus expectations and our forecast. The number of jobs fell by 7 thousand mom, suggesting that employment growth is gradually moving towards -0.7% yoy. We continue to draw some cautious optimism from data on job postings, which have shown a modest improvement in recent months. However, these signals remain small in scale and, for now, are insufficient to materially alter the picture of prolonged stagnation in this segment of the labour market.
Change in employment since the beginning of the year (thousands of jobs)
Source: Statistics Poland (GUS), Pekao Research
Number of job advertisements posted on recruitment portals (thousands, 6-month average)
Source: Grant Thornton
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