Industry plowed ahead in September, construction still disrupted by accounting problems
September was a mirror image of August. While industrial data turned out to be very strong (+4.6% yoy), the construction sector was a major disappointment. However, just as in July, this was due in part to “irregularities in accounting.” The 9% yoy decline should therefore be viewed with some caution. Nevertheless, the Polish economy still looks healthy and vibrant in 2026.
Manufacturing output in September (% mom, nsa)
Źródło: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
The strongest evidence of the industry’s strength last month is that industrial output accelerated (from 4% to 4.6% yoy) despite the fact that the number of business days in September was less favorable than in the previous month. Of course, there are factors here that should temper one’s enthusiasm somewhat, such as the mandatory leave making up for the public holiday that fell on a Saturday in August and the relatively weak production reading last month. Nevertheless, September (like March) is always an interesting month, as it marks one of the two seasonal peaks in industrial production growth, and the magnitude of these peaks is cyclical. So, since 2026 is a year of recovery for European industry, we can expect solid growth in these months – and that is exactly what we saw. Manufacturing output rose by 18.5% mom, making this past September the best on record. This is also evident in the seasonally adjusted data, according to which industrial production rose by an impressive 3.4% mom.
Sold industrial output (Feb 2020 = 100%, s.a.)
Źródło: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
Looking at the bigger picture (or higher up – at the previous chart), industrial production has been on an upward trend for many quarters, a trend that even accelerated in 2026. As we mentioned earlier, a key feature of industrial production in recent months has been the relatively balanced nature of the growth – production is rising both in export-oriented sectors (manufacturing of electrical equipment) and in sectors supporting investment activity (manufacturing of other transportation equipment). In particular, production in sectors supplying the construction industry – cement, glass, and metal products – has grown steadily...
Construction output (2015 = 100, s.a.)
Źródło: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
…which brings us to construction output, whose results did not reflect this trend at all. Construction output fell by 9% yoy, which is a shockingly weak result (forecasts generally anticipated slight growth, but their distribution had a heavy right tail). According to the commentary provided by Statistics Poland, we are seeing a repeat of what happened in July. At that time, construction output was distorted by irregular settlements that delayed companies’ recognition of revenue. August partially corrected this, but in September the problem returned with a vengeance. GUS does not quantify this problem, and there is enormous uncertainty regarding the scale of its impact on construction output growth. We assume that the missing revenue will be recorded in October, at which point output growth will rise to 5–10% yoy. This is not a factor that would affect forecasts for investment and GDP growth. We recently decided to raise our economic growth forecasts for this year – we discussed this topic in more detail in the latest weekly report.
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