Polish consumer still in play, though November was muted
After weaker readings in industrial and construction output, November growth of retail sales also disappointed, slowing to 3.1% yoy (consensus: 3.9%). Nevertheless, the structure of retail sales remains positive, with high sales of durable goods standing out. Private consumption continues to be the main driver of GDP growth, supported by improving consumer sentiment and disinflation. In 2026, investment is expected to join consumption as a key growth driver.
Ups and downs in the economy often come in pairs… Following strong data in October from Polish industry, construction and trade, November brought disappointments across the board. After last week’s weak readings of industrial and construction output, today’s data on retail sales also slightly missed expectations. Retail sales growth slowed to 3.1% yoy in November (consensus: 3.9%) from 5.4% in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales increased by 1.1% compared to October.
Retail sales of goods vs. private consumption (Jan 2020 = 100%, seasonally adjusted)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
However, the details of the reading look much better. Particularly positive is the performance of durable goods, which best reflect household income strength. Sales of furniture and household electronics rose by 16.6% yoy in November, continuing a trend of over 10%-growth observed since the beginning of 2025. Car sales also performed strongly, increasing by nearly 13% yoy. Sales of clothing and footwear has remained high since the start of the year (over 12% yoy in November). Year-on-year declines in retail sales are observed only in the “books and press” and “food” categories.
Retail sales growth by category (% yoy)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
November may have benefited from relatively higher pre-holiday shopping compared to last year, due to end-of-month promotions (Black Week, Black Friday), but the data do not yet allow this hypothesis to be confirmed.
Durable goods retail sales growth (% yoy)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
Despite slightly disappointing retail sales data, the statement that Polish GDP is currently driven by consumption remains valid. However, compared to goods, services consumption is performing much better. Consumer sentiment indicators show continued improvement in household sentiment and its stable income situation, supported by lower NBP interest rates and declining inflation. This suggests that private consumption will remain a strong pillar of economic growth in Poland in the coming quarters.
Nevertheless, after a very strong start to Q4, November brought some cooling, which may pose a risk to our forecast for GDP acceleration at the end of the year, though many data points are still ahead. For the full year 2025, we forecast Poland’s GDP growth of 3.6%. In 2026, we expect the Polish economy to accelerate further, with an average annual growth of 4%, as investments join consumption as a key growth driver.
This publication (hereinafter referred to as the ‘Publication’) prepared by the Macroeconomic Analysis Department of Bank Polska Kasa Opieki Spółka Akcyjna (hereinafter referred to as ‘Pekao S.A.’) constitutes a commercial publication and is for information purposes only. Nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever, in particular it shall not constitute an offer within the meaning of Article 66 of the Civil Code. The publication does not constitute a recommendation provided within the framework of investment advisory services, investment analysis, financial analysis or any other recommendation of a general nature concerning transactions in financial instruments, an investment recommendation within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse or investment advice of a general nature concerning investment in financial instruments, and the information contained therein cannot be regarded as a proposal to purchase any financial instruments, an investment or tax advisory service or as a form of providing legal assistance. The publication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements ensuring the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibitions on the dissemination of investment research and does not constitute investment research.