This year’s revision of the weights in the consumption basket did not significantly alter the picture of Poland's inflation – January’s CPI was revised down by only 0.1 pp to 2.1% yoy. At the same time, February data were published, showing price growth remaining stable at the same level (2.1% yoy). A similar picture emerges for core inflation – according to our estimates, it stood at 2.7% yoy in January and slightly declined to 2.6% yoy in February. In practice, this means that previously projected inflation paths remain intact.

CPI vs. core inflation (% yoy)

Source: Statistics Poland, NBP, Pekao Research

The revision of the consumption basket weights aims to adjust its structure to actual household consumption patterns. The changes reflect both relative price developments in individual categories (faster-rising goods and services increase their share at the expense of cheaper ones) and evolving consumer preferences. The latest update is based on the 2025 consumption structure.

Compared to the previous year, the overall structure did not change significantly. The largest decline was observed in the transport category (down 0.9 pp to 10.2%, due to lower fuel prices) and in alcoholic beverages and tobacco products (down 0.4 pp to 4.8%). On the other hand, the biggest increases were in “housing utilities and energy” (up 0.8 pp to 20.4%) and “recreation, sports and culture” (up 0.5 pp to 6.4%).

Change in the consumption basket weights by category (2026 vs. 2025)

Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research

A remaining concern is the relatively “sticky” and elevated core inflation, which stayed at 2.7% yoy in January and declined only slightly to 2.6% yoy in February. Price pressures persist particularly in the services sector, where the disinflation process is slower. This is partly due to the delayed pass-through of weakening labour cost growth and the gradually closing output gap. In February, service prices increased by 4.8% yoy, compared with a 1.0% yoy rise in goods prices.

Inflation – goods vs. services (% yoy)

Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research

February data do not yet reflect the impact of rising fuel prices caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This effect will only become visible in March, when the direct, short-term increase in fuel prices is expected to lift the headline inflation rate by almost 1 pp, to around 3% yoy. In this sense, today’s published inflation readings (for January and February) describe a world that no longer exists and are unlikely to attract significant market attention.

We assume that the effects of the Middle East conflict will raise the previously projected inflation path by at least 0.5 pp, to around 2.6% yoy in December 2026. A key factor remains the duration of the geopolitical disruptions and the resulting energy price surge. The longer it persists, the more inflationary effects will extend beyond the immediate, short-term impact on fuel prices and spill over into other categories through second-round effects.

In this environment, the Monetary Policy Council is expected to remain cautious. Following the significant rate adjustments last year, the Council currently has room to refrain from further action and monitor developments. The coming months are likely to be characterized by interest rate stability, with a potential resumption of the easing cycle only in the second half of the year – potentially in a more stable geopolitical environment.

Inflation outlook (% yoy)

Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research