Retail sales slowed down, yet it accelerated
In September, retail sales (in constant prices) rose 3.3% yoy, following a 3.8% increase the previous month. At first glance, this is one of the weaker readings in recent months and the latest in a series of such readings. However, much of the volatility in sales in recent months has been driven by fuel prices, and September is no exception. Excluding fuel, sales grew at their fastest pace since June and have not slowed this year. The negative effects of the oil shock are evident in the consumption of services, not goods.
The slowdown in sales in September was essentially in line with our forecasts (3.2% yoy), and this time there are no major surprises even in the details of the report. A review of these details must, by its very nature, be brief:
Retail sales of fuel (constant prices, % yoy)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
- Fuel sales fell by 17% mom (the third-largest decline on record) and slowed by more than 10 p.p. on a yoy basis. This alone subtracted 1.5 p.p. from total retail sales. This is, of course, due to the sharp rise in fuel prices, as the second wave of the oil shock in September coincided with the withdrawal of the tax relief package.
- The warm September delayed the seasonal start of clothing and footwear sales, so we continue to see declines in this category. Since there have been far more warm Septembers than cold ones in recent years, we can speak of a shift in the seasonal pattern for this category.
- Sales of durable goods picked up slightly and grew at a double-digit rate (cars and parts: 13.1% yoy; furniture, electronics, and home appliances: +10.7% yoy)
Retail sales (constant prices, % yoy)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
According to our estimates, excluding fuels, sales accelerated from 4.2% to 5.4% yoy. In fact, fuel sales have shifted in recent months from being a factor driving overall growth to acting as a drag on it. Including them could therefore lead to erroneous conclusions about a slowdown in sales. In practice, we do not observe such trends, and sales are, in fact, remarkably stable: excluding fuels, they grew at exactly the same rate in the first nine months of the year as the average for 2025. There is therefore nothing alarming happening in the consumption of goods. We cannot say the same about total consumption, and the national accounts data has been screaming this at us since the beginning of the year. However, the consequences of significantly lower real income growth are visible only in services. We believe that total private consumption will grow by 3% this year, following a 3.9% increase in 2025.
Retail sales and household consumption (constant prices, % yoy)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
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