Polish retail sales move closer to normalization in May
In May, retail sales accelerated to 3.0% yoy, close to the consensus and our forecasts. The breakdown of the data also contains very few surprises. The structure of retail sales is normalizing after the significant fluctuations seen in the previous two months. Looking at the bigger picture, even if the impact of the Gulf War turns out to be less severe than feared just a few weeks ago, consumption is set to slow in 2026. The latest sales data are consistent with this outlook.
Retail sales (constant prices, % yoy)
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
The previous two months saw significant fluctuations – in March, retail sales surged by 8.7% y/y, only to slow sharply in April, to 1.3% yoy. This was due to the timing of Easter, base effects, weather, and the impact of the outbreak of war in the Gulf on the propensity to purchase durable and discretionary goods, as well as stockpiling of fuel during the first two months of the war. In May, most of these factors fall off the radar:
- Fuel sales fell by 9% mom – a result well below the seasonal trend (+3-4% month-over-month). This means that after two months of stockpiling, drivers decided it was time to tap into those reserves. We can expect June to also see low sales in this category.
- Sales of durable goods picked up in May: cars from 0.8% to 2.1% yoy, and furniture, consumer electronics, and home appliances from 1.0% to 4.5% yoy. This reflects partly a low base and partly a rebound following a very weak April, but trends in recent months have been negative.
- Sales of clothing and footwear rose by nearly 10% mom, pulling this category out of its April slump. This is largely a rebound from a disastrous April, driven by better weather.
- Food sales fell by 2.8% yoy, which is essentially a normal result for this category (it should be growing at the same rate as Poland’s population, which currently means slight decline).
- In the other categories, nothing noteworthy is happening.
Retail sales broken into categories (constant prices, % yoy)
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
How strong (or how weak) are Polish consumers right now? In a separate publication, we wrote extensively about the latest data on consumer sentiment. Based on that data, we concluded that consumers are in good shape, but under current conditions (relatively high interest rates), it will be difficult to defy the trend of declining real income. Wage data released at the same time today clearly show that income growth this year will be significantly weaker than in 2025. This means that private consumption will contribute less to GDP growth, and the baton will be passed – as we have been predicting for some time – to investment. In the second quarter, as in the year as a whole, GDP growth will be close to 3.5%.
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