Why do we believe that winter may have interfered with January's sales, despite the lack of a negative surprise in the headline? The combination of sales changes at the turn of the year and surprises compared to our assumptions points to this, although the effect is rather subtle. It is worth remembering that the turn of the year can be weird in monthly statistics, if only due to the distribution of public holidays around Christmas and New Year. December, as we recall, was surprisingly strong, even though on paper it shouldn't have been (few working days at the end of the year).

Retail sales by category (constant prices, yoy)

Source: Macrobond, Pekao Analizy

Generally, car sales turned out to be very weak in January – we observed a drop in sales of 4.5% y/]oy, the first one in 2.5 years (!). The surprise in this category was worth about 2 percentage points of the headline growth. The reason for the surprise is presumably the reduction in the deductibles for internal combustion engine cars from 1 January. The fact that, despite this disappointment, total sales were visibly better than our forecast is a testament to the vitality of consumption in other categories. For example, sales of furniture and RTV and household appliances slowed by over 8 percentage points, from 19.8% to 11.2% yoy, but here the high statistical base should be blamed. This January was the second best in history. It is worth noting that sales of a complementary good to cars – fuel – also slowed. There are statistical arguments to suggest that low temperatures reduced people's mobility and thus demand in this category.

If it was cold in January, consumers wanted to dress warmly, right? That is exactly what we see in the data – sales of clothing, footwear and textiles surged from 6% to 18% yoy, well above the seasonal pattern and a bit more than we expected. Perhaps spending on food should be placed in the same basket (if consumers stayed at home, they needed more food), but historical data do not confirm this hypothesis. Food sales were simply strong and were the main factor compensating for the weakness in car sales. In other categories, small positive surprises dominated.

Retail sales and consumption (constant prices, end of 2019 = 100%)

Source: Macrobond, Pekao Analizy

Looking more broadly, sales have been growing almost linearly since October 2024 (see the chart above). Private consumption was a major positive surprise in 2025. Will 2026 be similar? In our opinion, no, because the positive surprise in real income growth will not be repeated this year. Inflation will be lower than last year, but not as much, and the growth in nominal income will remain on a downward trend. In our opinion, private consumption will grow this year by 3.4%, below last year's value (3.7%).