Average wages in the enterprise sector increased by 6.8% yoy in July, up from 5.9% in June. The reading came in well above both the market consensus (6.2%) and our forecast (5.7%). What were the sources of this upside surprise?

First, various bonus payments made in July added a combined 0.6 percentage points to wage growth. Roughly half of this contribution came from additional payments in the mining sector. The other half reflected a combination of annual bonuses paid on the occasion of Forester’s Day, which were somewhat more generous than a year earlier, and July bonuses in the energy sector, which had not been paid in the corresponding period last year (leading the consensus to wrongly assume the same would occur this year). The lack of these payments, or their lower value, in July last year created a low base effect that reversed in July data. And what explains the remaining 0.3 percentage points of acceleration in wage growth? This was largely attributable to strong wage growth in the trade and transport services linked to it, suggesting that consumer demand remained robust in July.

A sizeable portion of today’s upside surprise therefore reflects one-off factors that should fade in August. However, we do not believe it will be sufficient to push the next wage-growth reading below 6%. As a result, upside risks to our current forecast for average wage growth this year (5.5%) have increased materially. After a series of clear downside surprises in the first half of the year, the downward momentum in wage growth appears to have run its course. At this stage, however, it is difficult to determine whether this is merely a temporary pause or whether wage growth has already reached its lower bound under the current macroeconomic environment. In this context, the August reading may prove decisive.

Wage momentum (% yoy, seasonally adjusted), i.e. the annual wage growth rate implied by the current seasonally adjusted monthly growth rate if sustained for a full year

Source: Statistics Poland (GUS), Pekao Research

Average employment in the enterprise sector declined by 0.8% yoy in July, compared with a decline of 0.9% yoy in June. The reading came in above both consensus and our forecast. Rather than falling, the number of jobs increased by 4k mom in July. This is the first employment reading this year carrying a genuinely positive signal and the first one to place 2026 in a more favourable light than 2024–25. One swallow does not make a summer but the latest data may potentially open the door to a modest, yet nevertheless meaningful, recovery in employment.

Change in employment since the beginning of the year (thousands of jobs)

Source: Statistics Poland (GUS), Pekao Research