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Poland’s economic success: from transformation to the European elite

Poland has been recording dynamic civilizational progress for several decades. In the past 10 years alone, its GDP has grown by more than one-third — one of the highest growth rates among all EU countries — and the gap between Poland and the EU average in terms of GDP per capita has narrowed by nine percentage points. The country has achieved measurable success in the international arena, consistently increasing its share in global exports of goods and services. During this period, the value of foreign sales of goods approximately doubled, while service exports nearly tripled.

Thanks to the dynamic growth of household income, Poland is gaining significance not only as a competitive production base but also as a consumer market. In recent years private consumption growth has been the fastest among the EU’s top 10 economies, and this year Poland is expected to overtake the Netherlands in nominal consumption value, entering the EU’s top five. The effects of developing a knowledge-based economy are becoming increasingly visible. The fastest-growing sector is knowledge-intensive services, and Poland is increasing its R&D activity faster than any other country in the region, climbing steadily in EU innovation rankings.

Investments – the key to the next phase of development

Poland is on the brink of a major turning point that should — and likely will — take place in the area of investments. Until now, this area has remained overshadowed by fast-growing consumption and exports. We expect that total investments in the Polish economy may reach 1 trillion PLN by 2030. A key factor driving this growth will be large-scale transformation programmes in various areas, including: green energy transition, military security, transport infrastructure (including the CPK and high-speed rail), energy efficiency, digitalization and circular economy.

Ambitious socio-economic goals for 2035

The vision for Poland in 10 years is optimistic: a wealthier, more technologically advanced, and better-connected country. We forecast that by then, Poland’s GDP per capita may surpass that of Italy, and investment could reach 25% of GDP. Poland will also become a place of higher living standards — with Poles living an average of five years longer, wages reaching 80% of the EU average, and the housing supply gap being closed. Equally important will be a shift in the structure of the economy — with a larger share of high-tech industries and knowledge-based services. Poland should also increase its R&D spending to 2.5% of GDP, and its transport and energy infrastructure will fully meet Western standards. By that time, nearly 60% of electricity consumed in Poland should come from renewable energy sources. These goals are ambitious but realistic — assuming a continuation of current trends, full-scale transformational efforts, and a relatively stable global environment.

Poland’s sectors of the future – powered by innovation and modernization

Industries that may become growth engines in the coming years and form the backbone of a modern Polish economy include not only current export champions such as the food industry, furniture manufacturing, or plastics products — where moving up the value chain and into premium segments is desirable — but also several high-tech sectors where Poland currently lags but has strong development potential due to favourable demand conditions. These emerging sectors include IT, defence industry, pharmaceuticals and production of specialized transport equipment. Additionally, we see several promising new areas of competence, such as components for the renewable energy and e-mobility sectors, the space industry or semiconductor production. These are sectors that could significantly increase Poland’s added value and competitiveness on the global market.