Polish consumers remain in high spirits
October retail sales data confirm good confidence of Polish consumers. Retail sales grew by 5.4% yoy, surpassing market expectations of 4.0%. Consumers remain in very good shape, with particularly strong demand for durable goods. This increases the likelihood that GDP growth in 4Q25 will reach the long-anticipated 4% yoy.
Following yesterday’s very positive data about Polish industry and construction, today’s figures for retail sales of goods were equally strong, rising 5.4% yoy in October, well above market expectations of 4.0%, and despite a solid high reference base from the previous year. After adjusting for seasonal factors, month-on-month retail sales increased by 1.9%, showing that yearly growth is not just a statistical effect.
Real retail sales index (January 2020 = 100%, seasonally adjusted)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
The acceleration is visible across most retail categories, with durable goods continuing to perform particularly well, reflecting the income strength of households. Car sales in October increased by 15.6% yoy, while furniture and consumer electronics/appliances grew nearly 14% yoy, continuing a trend observed since the beginning of the year. The only category showing persistent weakness remains books and press.
Growth of durable goods retail sales (constant prices, % yoy)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
October’s data fit into a broader picture of positive consumer sentiment. Continued improvements in household confidence, stable income levels, lower NBP interest rates, and falling inflation suggest that private consumption will remain a strong pillar of economic growth in Poland in the coming quarters. Considering the positive data from the real economy released in October, the probability is increasing that GDP growth in 4Q25 will finally reach the long-anticipated 4% yoy. For the full year 2025, we forecast GDP growth of 3.6%. Moreover, the exceptionally strong year-end provides solid macroeconomic momentum for the start of 2026, when we expect the Polish economy to grow by around 4% on yearly average.
This publication (hereinafter referred to as the ‘Publication’) prepared by the Macroeconomic Analysis Department of Bank Polska Kasa Opieki Spółka Akcyjna (hereinafter referred to as ‘Pekao S.A.’) constitutes a commercial publication and is for information purposes only. Nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever, in particular it shall not constitute an offer within the meaning of Article 66 of the Civil Code. The publication does not constitute a recommendation provided within the framework of investment advisory services, investment analysis, financial analysis or any other recommendation of a general nature concerning transactions in financial instruments, an investment recommendation within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse or investment advice of a general nature concerning investment in financial instruments, and the information contained therein cannot be regarded as a proposal to purchase any financial instruments, an investment or tax advisory service or as a form of providing legal assistance. The publication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements ensuring the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibitions on the dissemination of investment research and does not constitute investment research.