Average wages in the enterprise sector rose by 6.1% yoy in February—identical to the January reading. This outcome is markedly below the market consensus (6.6% yoy) and our forecast (6.5%). Wage growtrh in February had a solid basis for accelerating relative to January—namely the fading effect of the low base from a year earlier, which had contributed to the weaker January reading and should have vanished in February. Nevertheless, the sharp cooling of wage pressure in the Polish economy clearly outweighed this factor, reinforced by a smaller increase in the minimum wage than a year ago (its spillover effects across the wage distribution typically occur not only in January but also in February and March). This mechanism appears relevant in the context of the February disappointment—lower-than-expected wage growth was largely driven by the “trade” and “accommodation & food services” sections, where a significant proportion of workers earn at or near the minimum wage. The February reading was additionally dragged down by lower-than-usual bonuses in mining, resulting in a decline in wage growth of over 8% yoy in that section. In contrast, manufacturing wages provided notable support for the reading, rising by 6.5% yoy and contributing approximately 0.2 pp to the headline figure.

We expect wage growth to continue trending downward in the coming months, reaching an annual average of 5.5%. The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East— the effects of which are not yet visible in Polish macroeconomic data—creates, in our view, an additional downside risk to this forecast. Any potential inflation increase driven by higher commodity prices will not be able to stimulate wage growth due to weakening labour demand and declining worker bargaining power. On the contrary—higher prices and greater uncertainty will reduce consumption and dampen economic activity, which will exert mild downward pressure on wage dynamics. For now, we are only signalling this risk and are not revising our forecasts, given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the course and duration of the conflict and its likely marginal impact on wages.

Wage momentum (%, yoy, SA), i.e. the annualised wage growth rate assuming the current seasonally adjusted monthly growth rate persisted throughout the year

Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research

Average employment in the enterprise sector declined by 0.8% yoy in February, identical to the January reading and consistent with the consensus. The month‑on‑month decline in employment amounted to just under 3k jobs, placing the annual growth rate exactly between ‑0.8% and ‑0.9% yoy (the latter being our forecast for February). It is possible that in the coming months the figure temporarily moves toward the lower value. Due to the specific nature of the January reading (the annual rotation of the sample of surveyed firms used by the StatOffice), only February truly marks the start of the new year in employment statistics. This suggests that the year has begun similarly to the previous one.

Change in employment since January of each year (thousand jobs, mom)

Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research