Wage growth in Poland boosted by one-time bonuses
Wage growth in the enterprise sector edged up in March compared with February (6.6% vs. 6.1% yoy), coming in slightly above the consensus (6.3%). The upside surprise was most likely driven by bonuses in the mining and energy sections. Meanwhile, employment declined by 0.9% yoy, falling short of expectations (-0.8%).
Average gross wage in the enterprise sector increased by 6.6% yoy in March, up from 6.1% in February. This reading came in slightly above both the market consensus and our forecast (both at 6.3%). The acceleration in wage growth itself was anticipated due to several factors. First, the pre-holiday shopping Sunday fell in March this year, rather than in April as was the case last year, which temporarily boosted wages in the retail (+0.1 pp contribution to the acceleration). Second, a slightly higher number of working days (+1 yoy) and milder March weather supported faster wage growth in construction (+0.1 pp). However, the main upside surprise relative to the consensus came from wage readings in the energy and mining sectors, accounting for the full magnitude of today’s surprise (+0.3 pp). Most likely, this reflects bonus payments in both sections, translating into a one-off acceleration in wage growth.
Despite the modest upside surprise in March, wage growth rate remain markedly lower than in recent years. In our view, the direction for wages is clearly downward. In the coming months, wage growth should continue to moderate towards 6% and below. Additional “support” for lower readings in the near term may stem from the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the economic situation related to war in the Middle East, as well as weaker inflation prospects domestically, prompting employers to contain costs. At present, however, this is not a strong effect, and we therefore maintain our full-year 2026 forecast at 5.5%.
Contribution of individual sectors to the acceleration in wage growth in March (pp)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
Average employment in the enterprise sector declined by 0.9% yoy in March, compared to a decrease of 0.8% in February. This reading came in below the consensus (-0.8%), although analysts had expected employment dynamics to reach -0.9% in the near term; the timing, however, remained uncertain (we had incorrectly anticipated February). The decline in employment amounted to 9 thousand jobs mom; had it been lower by just 1 thousand, the consensus could have claimed a forecasting success. That was not the case, but there is no cause for concern—the employment trajectory in 2026 so far closely mirrors that observed in 2025 and the two preceding years.
Change in employment since January of each year (thousand jobs)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
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