Economic news

• CPI: Flash figure of the August CPI inflation jumped to 3.4% yoy from 3.0% yoy in July. Acceleration was primarily due to the fuel prices. Arguably, Poland’s Statistical Office (Statistics Poland, GUS) must have collected its price surveys in the first half of the month, thus filtering out the impact of the government’s cap on fuel prices. We have written more on the CPI figures here.
• GDP: Real GDP growth estimates for 2Q26 have been revised by 0.1 p.p. upwards to 3.9% yoy. The surprise came from a stronger-than-expected net exports contribution (+0.5 p.p.); furthermore, it is worth noting that despite some worries growth in inventories added only just 0.1 p.p. to the GDP figure. We discuss the GDP structure in more detail later in the report.
• RATES: The NBP does not commit in advance to any predetermined interest rate path. Policy decisions are based on incoming data, forecasts and the balance of risks, NBP Governor Adam Glapiński said in a speech delivered during a G20 meeting. Moreover, MPC member Iwona Duda struck a moderately hawkish tone last week, at least relative to Adam Glapiński’s dovish press conference in July. She stated that NBP interest rates should remain unchanged at least through the end of 2026, or longer if inflation exceeds 3.5%. At the same time, she made no reference to the possibility of rate hikes, which are currently being priced by interest rate markets.
• SENTIMENT: Business conditions in Polish manufacturing softened somewhat in August. The PMI declined to 48.3 from 49.0 in the previous month, falling short of the consensus expectation of 49.6.

Second time’s the charm: lessons from the latest GDP data

GDP growth in Q2 was ultimately revised up to 3.9% yoy, 0.1 pp. higher than reported in the flash estimate and fully in line with our expectations. The composition of growth was also broadly consistent with our forecasts, at least in directional terms: private consumption slowed to below 3% yoy, investment accelerated, while both net exports and inventories made positive contributions to headline GDP growth.

Investment growth turned out stronger than we had initially anticipated, although data on non-financial corporate investment published last week clearly highlighted where the risks to this outlook lie. The biggest surprise of recent months, however, has come from foreign trade. In Q2, both exports and imports expanded by more than 10%. Excluding the post-pandemic distortions of Q2 2021, the last time such a combination occurred was in 2017, while exports alone have not recorded double-digit growth since Q3 2022.

As things stand, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of weak consumption, strong investment and exports. Does this sound familiar? It certainly does to us. This was precisely the narrative underpinning our forecast of 4% GDP growth for 2025. In the end, however, exports, particularly in the first half of that year, proved disappointing, while the investment recovery progressed more slowly than we expected. Private consumption, meanwhile, surprised on the upside, growing by 3.7% rather than the 3% we had anticipated and ultimately earning 2025 the title of the “year of the consumer”.

If the economy is performing so well, why does it still feel as though something is missing? This brings us to arguably the biggest puzzle of 2026: the absence of visible economic effects from the oil shock. It is difficult to think of a starker contrast than that between the headlines and early analyses following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which warned of the largest disruption to energy markets in decades, and the actual trajectory of global macroeconomic data. We have previously discussed the reasons why the oil shock appears to have washed over the global economy with surprisingly limited effects. Today, we focus instead on what this means from the perspective of the Polish economy.

Global and Polish exports (% yoy)

Source: Statistics Poland (GUS) and CPB World Trade Monitor via Macrobond

1. First, the acceleration in exports more than offset the increase in imports associated with stronger investment activity. Real exports and imports have been moving largely in tandem for some time. As a result, while the combined contribution of private consumption and investment to GDP growth in the first half of this year has been broadly unchanged compared with the 2025 average, the contribution of net exports has improved by around 0.5 percentage points, rising from -0.4pp to +0.2pp.

2. Second, Poland is not unique in experiencing a meaningful improvement in export performance. Global trade has accelerated in 2026, and this is not merely a semiconductor story. Exports have also contributed positively to growth in Germany and elsewhere. According to the broadest trade indicators currently available, global real exports and imports have been expanding at their fastest pace since 2022.

3. Third, export growth in Q2 was so strong (11% yoy, 6% qoq seasonally adjusted) that it has effectively closed the gap that had opened up relative to historical trends over recent years. Private consumption remains the component furthest below its long-term trajectory. The recovery in exports over the past two years has had two distinct phases: first, Polish exports stopped underperforming global trade; subsequently, they began to accelerate alongside global exports.

4. Fourth, the improvement in net exports has occurred in real terms rather than nominal ones. The combined balance of goods and services trade has changed very little over this period, largely due to a deterioration in the terms of trade. That said, the rise in energy prices has been partially offset by higher prices for copper and silver (produced in Poland in large quantities).

5. Finally, Q2 trade data may simply look too good to be true. We cannot rule out the possibility that part of the acceleration in exports and imports reflects the bringing forward of purchasing or production decisions, or shifts in demand between quarters. In both cases, the underlying driver would likely be disruptions associated with the Gulf conflict.

To sum up, the biggest surprise of 2026 has been the strength of the global economy. Economic activity has exceeded not only the expectations formed in the aftermath of the Gulf war but also the forecasts prevailing at the beginning of the year. Had it not been for the oil shock and the slowdown in private consumption, GDP growth of 4% this year would have appeared a highly plausible scenario.

Financial markets update

Against the backdrop of strong domestic macroeconomic data and an increasingly hawkish inflation trajectory, the PLN remains well supported ahead of the MPC decision. We expect this strength to persist, particularly if the ECB’s forward guidance effectively draws a line under the brief tightening cycle in the euro area and if Adam Glapiński signals an extended period of monetary policy stability. Meanwhile, yields on Polish government bonds have mirrored developments in core markets. The increase in 10-year yields failed to exceed the highs recorded before the weekend, with yields remaining within the 6.10–6.15% range. We expect the MPC meeting to be the key source of market volatility this week, as an ECB rate hike is already largely priced in by investors. The zloty should retain some scope for further appreciation, while Polish government bond yields are likely to remain elevated. That said, we do not expect this week to produce new cyclical highs in either market.