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3 days ago
The week ahead: quiet start, key data later
The week opens on a calm note, with Monday lacking major macro releases and investor focus turning to US–EU trade developments. Momentum will build midweek with the Fed’s rate decision and U.S. labor market data on Friday, while in Poland, Thursday’s flash CPI reading could mark the start of a sustained return to the target range, with inflation likely falling below 3% y/y in July.
1 week ago
Persistent price divergence: a structural feature of Polish inflation
The beginning of the week will be dominated by major macro readings from Poland’s economy. In the meantime, we take a closer look at Polish inflation and its structure.
2 weeks ago
Keep calm and tariffs on
It has been a quiet week for macroeconomists, with limited data releases. On the monetary side, the Polish National Bank offered mostly opinions and loose forecasts, while the fiscal front stayed active with auctions. The week ended with rising uncertainty over US-EU trade, culminating in Trump’s announcement of 30% tariffs, causing fractures and further discourse among EU leaders on how best to tackle the looming trade war.
4 weeks ago
Monetary policy in Poland on pause in the summer
Macro Compass July and August 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
4 weeks ago
Rates in Poland will be kept unchanged this week
The highlight of the week is clearly the MPC meeting. We do not believe it to be a high-stakes one and see the Council as unwilling to ease monetary policy now (as clearly communicated by several members), but the new projections will provide a framework and justification for future rate cuts.
5 weeks ago
Poland’s government budget data suggest low risk of budget revision
Today, we saw some relevant macro data readings from Poland’s economy. More releases of May data will be published tomorrow (retail sales, money demand) and on Wednesday (unemployment rate).