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1 week ago
Inflation under control, public debt under scrutiny
We are back after the holidays with our monthly publication "MacroCompass" including: our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 weeks ago
Rates in Poland will be cut this week
This week’s main event in Poland will be the MPC’s rate decision – we expect a cut by 25 bps. Other than that, the economic calendar will be dominated by readings from the core markets; NFP on Friday and final PMI readings in the first half of the week.
5 weeks ago
Tune in for flash GDP and final CPI data
Short (public holiday on the 15th) but eventful week ahead of us. On Thursday Statistics Poland will publish detailed inflation data for July and the flash estimate of Q2 GDP. We forecast Q2 GDP to have accelerated to 3.5% yoy. Detailed inflation data will shed some light on the sources of the major upward surprise in July CPI (0.3 p.p.).
1 month ago
Polish macro in summer hibernation
With limited domestic data, last week’s macro focus shifted to the U.S. and eurozone, where GDP and inflation figures weighed the expectations around policy trajectories. This week, Poland remains in a data lull, while markets look, yet again, to releases from the EU and U.S. economies – particularly trade balances, sentiment indices, industrial orders and manufacturing activity.
1 month ago
The week ahead: quiet start, key data later
The week opens on a calm note, with Monday lacking major macro releases and investor focus turning to US–EU trade developments. Momentum will build midweek with the Fed’s rate decision and U.S. labor market data on Friday, while in Poland, Thursday’s flash CPI reading could mark the start of a sustained return to the target range, with inflation likely falling below 3% y/y in July.
1 month ago
Persistent price divergence: a structural feature of Polish inflation
The beginning of the week will be dominated by major macro readings from Poland’s economy. In the meantime, we take a closer look at Polish inflation and its structure.