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1 week ago
The NBP will resume easing in February
Focus this week is on Polish macro data: on Thursday Statistics Poland will publish labor market and industry data for December and business and consumer sentiment for January. We expect the former to show a rebound in industrial output, ongoing decline in employment and wage growth trending downward.
2 weeks ago
Poland's MPC set to pause the easing cycle
This week is all about the MPC meeting. Picking on cues from the NBP governor (and other MPC members) last month, we expect the Coucil to pause this time. The MPC will resume its easing cycle in March, once it obtains more data and a fresh set of staff projections.
5 weeks ago
Poland: Temporary November weakness against a strong year-end backdrop
Polish manufacturing and retail trade delivered disappointing data for November, but only relative to the exceptionally strong readings in September and October, which had pushed expectations to unsustainably high levels. Underlying momentum in the Polish economy remains solid, however, and bodes well for 2026.
1 month ago
Santa’s coming this week with a bag full of data from Poland
Thursday this week is packed with a multitude of data for real economy in November. The most important is wage growth. We forecast a 6.1% yoy growth, slightly below consensus (6.3% yoy). Surprise to the downside should result in repricing of interest rate cuts in Poland on FI market. Another important data-point will be industrial production for the same month. We expect a weak reading of 0.5% yoy due to slow external demand for Polish manufacturing and unfavourable calendar. Consensus is more optimistic with expected growth of 2.9% yoy.
1 month ago
Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state
MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 months ago
Macro finish of November - data from Poland in the spotlight this week
The last week of November will be packed with macro readings from the Polish economy - we will receive data from the labour market, industry, retail trade, and a flash estimate of CPI for November, which will fall to around 2.5% yoy. The long weekend (Thanksgiving Day) will begin in the US on Thursday, so the movement in financial markets will concentrate at the beginning of the week.