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1 day ago
Santa’s coming this week with a bag full of data from Poland
Thursday this week is packed with a multitude of data for real economy in November. The most important is wage growth. We forecast a 6.1% yoy growth, slightly below consensus (6.3% yoy). Surprise to the downside should result in repricing of interest rate cuts in Poland on FI market. Another important data-point will be industrial production for the same month. We expect a weak reading of 0.5% yoy due to slow external demand for Polish manufacturing and unfavourable calendar. Consensus is more optimistic with expected growth of 2.9% yoy.
1 week ago
Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state
MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
3 weeks ago
Macro finish of November - data from Poland in the spotlight this week
The last week of November will be packed with macro readings from the Polish economy - we will receive data from the labour market, industry, retail trade, and a flash estimate of CPI for November, which will fall to around 2.5% yoy. The long weekend (Thanksgiving Day) will begin in the US on Thursday, so the movement in financial markets will concentrate at the beginning of the week.
4 weeks ago
The most underrated expansion in history
In terms of economic data, this will be a lighter week. We kick off today with the official release of core inflation numbers from the NBP. The most important one (CPI excl. food and energy) will show significant disinflation in October. On Thursday Statistics Poland will publish consumer confidence indicators for November and on the next day the preliminary business sentiment data for the same period will be released.
5 weeks ago
MPC to deliver final rate cut of the year
MacroCompass November - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
MPC set to cut rates after CPI undershot forecasts
This week, the most relevant event will be Wednesday’s decision by the Monetary Policy Council, which, in our view, will indicate a 25 basis point rate cut. The market consensus also anticipates such a move. In the core markets, the key releases will be the final PMI readings.