Search results
Selected tag: financial markets
1 week ago
Suprising presidential election results in Poland
The beginning of the week will be marked by analyses of the results of the presidential elections in Poland. This week the MPC will decide on interest rates, but we do not expect any changes. In the core markets, the beginning of June will pass in anticipation of the ECB decision on Thursday and the reading of US payrolls on Friday. On the way, the final PMI data in Europe and the US for May will be published, as well as the flash estimate of May inflation in the eurozone.
2 weeks ago
The first green shoots on the credit market
Last week’s local macro data were a mixed bag: industrial output surprised to the upside and labor market firmed up, but construction disappointed. This week starts and ends on a big note: today retail sales data for April will be released and on Friday Statistics Poland will publish the details of Q1 GDP and the flash estimate of May CPI. We expect retail sales to have surged to 4.0% yoy and inflation to have declined marginally, to 4.2% yoy.
2 months ago
Tariff war will reduce inflation in Poland
This week the final inflation reading for March will be published (Tuesday), followed by the core inflation release the day after. Polish assets should remain responsive mainly to geopolitical factors.
6 months ago
A perfect storm for the euro
GDP growth did not surprise, but its structure did. The weakness of consumption will stay with us for longer. At the same time, we are approaching the moment when the Monetary Policy Council will resume rate cuts. We present our macroeconomic forecasts and scenario for financial markets in December.
7 months ago
Trumped-up fears over Polish assets
D. Trump's victory in the US presidential election is the main point of interest for financial markets in the coming month. We believe that Polish assets (currencies, shares, bonds) have undeservingly sold off, considering the actual risks that our country is facing. Below, we present our macroeconomic forecasts and financial markets scenario for November.
8 months ago
Hawkish spring, dovish autumn
Macro Compass October 2024 - our macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets