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1 week ago
Farewell to rate cuts in Poland
MacroCompass September 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 week ago
Second time’s the charm: lessons from the latest GDP data from Poland
The NBP is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and we do not expect any changes. The Governor’s press conference the following day is likely to be more relevant than the decision itself.
4 weeks ago
A display of strength in Poland’s labour market
July delivered a major upside surprise in wage growth, which accelerated to 6.8% yoy compared with the consensus forecast of 6.2%. A significant share of this surprise can be attributed to one-off factors, although some signals suggest that wage growth be stabilising above the 6% mark. On the positive side, employment also surprised to the upside for the first time this year.
2 months ago
Manufacturing drives wages acceleration in Poland
Wage growth unexpectedly accelerated to 5.9% yoy in June, following May’s increase (5.8%) that had been largely driven by one-off factors. The reading came in well above the consensus forecast (5.5%). The acceleration was entirely attributable to a sharp increase in wages in manufacturing, which alone added around 0.5 percentage points to the headline figure. Meanwhile, employment growth remained stable at -0.9% yoy.
2 months ago
No pressure to change interest rates in Poland
MacroCompass July/August 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
3 months ago
Poland’s wage growth surprises to the downside once again
Wage growth accelerated to 5.8% yoy in May, offsetting the weak reading recorded a month earlier (5.4%). The figure came in slightly below consensus (6.0%). The pickup in growth largely reflects factors anticipated by the consensus, namely the fading of a high reference base and payoffs in the mining sector. On the other hand, the main source of disappointment was lower-than-anticipated wage growth in manufacturing and construction. Meanwhile, employment growth stabilised at -0.9% yoy.