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1 week ago
Strong year-end performance in the Polish labour market
The December wage reading substantially exceeded analysts’ expectations. While the consensus had pointed to a 7% yoy growth, the actual figure came in at a robust 8.6%. In our view, this was largely driven by generous holiday bonuses, an effect that should to a significant extent fade in January. Positive signals were also visible in employment: its annual growth rate improved to -0.7% yoy from -0.8%, in line with market expectations.
2 weeks ago
Poland's MPC set to pause the easing cycle
This week is all about the MPC meeting. Picking on cues from the NBP governor (and other MPC members) last month, we expect the Coucil to pause this time. The MPC will resume its easing cycle in March, once it obtains more data and a fresh set of staff projections.
1 month ago
Polish economy in November: worse sentiment in industry, positive signals from the labour market
The last such interesting day before Christmas, with a full calendar of macroeconomic data, also brought a festive "package" of monthly data from the Polish economy. November data from the real economy surprised negatively, while the labour market delivered positive readings.
1 month ago
Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state
MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 months ago
Poland: wage and productivity growth aligned at last
In October, nominal wage growth decelerated from 7.5% to 6.6% year-on-year, bringing real wage growth down to 3.8% — broadly in line with the 3.7% yoy increase in real GDP in the third quarter, which serves as a proxy for productivity growth. This suggests that wage dynamics have moved into a range considered neutral for inflation (5–6% annually), effectively reducing wage-driven inflationary pressure. As a result, conditions are increasingly favorable for further monetary easing. In our view, the next interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) could come as early as December.
2 months ago
MPC to deliver final rate cut of the year
MacroCompass November - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets