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1 day ago
Rate hikes deferred until next year
MacroCompass November 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 weeks ago
Wage growth in Poland stubbornly below 6%
This time, the surprise in Poland’s labour market data was the absence of any surprise. Wage growth came remarkably close to the market consensus for the first time in a year, with average wages increasing by 5.9% yoy versus expectations of 6.0%. At the same time, employment declined by 0.8% yoy for the third consecutive month. It has been a long time since this data release looked so uneventful.
4 weeks ago
ECB started, Fed joined, NBP will follow
MacroCompass October 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
Wage rollercoaster in Poland loses momentum in August
Another month, another surprise in wage data. This time, the wage rollercoaster swung to the downside, with wage growth slowing to 5.6% yoy, almost 1 percentage point below the consensus forecast (6.5%). The forecasting error appears to have been largely driven by an underestimation of the elevated base created by one-off payments in mining and forestry a month earlier. At the same time, trade, manufacturing and energy production also surprised on the downside. Employment, meanwhile, remained stable at -0.8% yoy.
1 month ago
Farewell to rate cuts in Poland
MacroCompass September 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
Second time’s the charm: lessons from the latest GDP data from Poland
The NBP is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and we do not expect any changes. The Governor’s press conference the following day is likely to be more relevant than the decision itself.