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Selected tag: labour market
1 week ago
The wage brake is getting a bit stuck
The rate of weakening wage pressure in Poland has slowed in recent months. Wage growth in the corporate sector accelerated slightly in June to 9.0% yoy from 8.4% in the previous month (slightly surprising the consensus of 8.6%). Employment data, on the other hand, proved interesting for a completely unexpected reason.
3 weeks ago
Polish markets entering holiday mode
This past week was marked by the unexpected. It began with an unfavorable PMI reading for Poland, much against economists’ predictions, and culminated in a rate cut by the MPC, not only against the wider consensus but also against the council’s own assurances. Now it's time to wind down as no macro event is planned for the week.
5 weeks ago
Mixed signals from Poland's labour market
Today’s wage data provides relief for analysts and monetary policy makers — the significant decline in wage growth suggests that last month’s concerning figures were driven by one-off factors. Employment also unexpectedly declined, which, unlike the wage data, does not constitute a positive signal.
1 month ago
For the MPC, caution prevails over macroeconomic indicators
Not a lot going on this week. The macro calendar will be empty until Friday. The end of the week brings the release of final CPI data and monthly balance of payments for April.
1 month ago
Perfect conditions for rate cuts in Poland
Macro Compass June 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
2 months ago
Unexpected shifts in Poland's labour market
For the first time in several months, we saw a significant surprise in both key labor market indicators. Wage growth exceeded expectations by more than 1.0 percentage points, while employment brought a positive surprise of a modest 0.1 percentage points.