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Selected tag: labour market
1 week ago
Continued softness in Poland's labour market indicators
September did not bring any significant surprises in the Polish labor market. Wage growth was in line with both market consensus and our forecast, showing a slight increase compared to the previous month, though remaining relatively subdued. Meanwhile, employment growth stabilized at the level registered in August.
3 weeks ago
Inflation stands still, while the MPC sits on the fence
MacroCompass October 2025 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
Slowing wage growth increases pressure on interest rate cuts in Poland
August labour market data surprised with weaker wage growth, increasing the likelihood of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) cutting interest rates as early as October. Real wage growth, despite a slowdown, continues to support consumption and remains a key driver of Poland’s economic growth. Employment, however, remains stagnant, with no clear signs of improvement in the near term.
1 month ago
Inflation under control, public debt under scrutiny
We are back after the holidays with our monthly publication "MacroCompass" including: our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 months ago
Nothing but declines in the Polish labor market
July saw a pronounced slowdown of wage growth, contradicting the concerns we had speculated about a month earlier regarding a potential malfunction of the "wage brake". It turned out that the upward surprise observed in June was fully offset by the disappointing outcome in July — wage growth in the enterprise sector slowed to 7.6% yoy from 9.0%, falling short of the expected 8.6%. Employment data also unexpectedly underperformed, and we further identify a continuation of the classification issues observed in June.
2 months ago
Polish macro in summer hibernation
With limited domestic data, last week’s macro focus shifted to the U.S. and eurozone, where GDP and inflation figures weighed the expectations around policy trajectories. This week, Poland remains in a data lull, while markets look, yet again, to releases from the EU and U.S. economies – particularly trade balances, sentiment indices, industrial orders and manufacturing activity.