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Selected tag: labour market
1 week ago
A Pleasant Postcard from the Past
We are waiting for final CPI data for the first two months of the year (on Friday). We expect CPI to have risen slightly in February (from 2.1 to 2.2% yoy), but annual basket reweighing might have changed a lot.
2 weeks ago
Only good news from Polish economy
MacroCompass March 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
3 weeks ago
Strong deceleration in wage growth in Poland
In line with our expectations, the January wage data showed a pronounced slowdown in annual wage growth relative to December — to 6.1% yoy from 8.6%. The primary driver was a high statistical base from the previous month, reflecting substantial year-end bonuses. Employment declined by 0.8% yoy compared to a 0.7% decrease in December; however, this figure provides limited insight into underlying labour market dynamics, as the January reading is distorted by an annual revision of the survey sample by Statistics Poland.
1 month ago
The MPC will wait until March to resume rate cuts
MacroCompass February 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
Ten economic questions for 2026-2027
As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.
1 month ago
Strong year-end performance in the Polish labour market
The December wage reading substantially exceeded analysts’ expectations. While the consensus had pointed to a 7% yoy growth, the actual figure came in at a robust 8.6%. In our view, this was largely driven by generous holiday bonuses, an effect that should to a significant extent fade in January. Positive signals were also visible in employment: its annual growth rate improved to -0.7% yoy from -0.8%, in line with market expectations.