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Selected tag: labour market
1 week ago
Inflation under control, public debt under scrutiny
We are back after the holidays with our monthly publication "MacroCompass" including: our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
3 weeks ago
Nothing but declines in the Polish labor market
July saw a pronounced slowdown of wage growth, contradicting the concerns we had speculated about a month earlier regarding a potential malfunction of the "wage brake". It turned out that the upward surprise observed in June was fully offset by the disappointing outcome in July — wage growth in the enterprise sector slowed to 7.6% yoy from 9.0%, falling short of the expected 8.6%. Employment data also unexpectedly underperformed, and we further identify a continuation of the classification issues observed in June.
1 month ago
Polish macro in summer hibernation
With limited domestic data, last week’s macro focus shifted to the U.S. and eurozone, where GDP and inflation figures weighed the expectations around policy trajectories. This week, Poland remains in a data lull, while markets look, yet again, to releases from the EU and U.S. economies – particularly trade balances, sentiment indices, industrial orders and manufacturing activity.
1 month ago
The wage brake is getting a bit stuck
The rate of weakening wage pressure in Poland has slowed in recent months. Wage growth in the corporate sector accelerated slightly in June to 9.0% yoy from 8.4% in the previous month (slightly surprising the consensus of 8.6%). Employment data, on the other hand, proved interesting for a completely unexpected reason.
2 months ago
Polish markets entering holiday mode
This past week was marked by the unexpected. It began with an unfavorable PMI reading for Poland, much against economists’ predictions, and culminated in a rate cut by the MPC, not only against the wider consensus but also against the council’s own assurances. Now it's time to wind down as no macro event is planned for the week.
2 months ago
Mixed signals from Poland's labour market
Today’s wage data provides relief for analysts and monetary policy makers — the significant decline in wage growth suggests that last month’s concerning figures were driven by one-off factors. Employment also unexpectedly declined, which, unlike the wage data, does not constitute a positive signal.