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1 week ago

Continued softness in Poland's labour market indicators

September did not bring any significant surprises in the Polish labor market. Wage growth was in line with both market consensus and our forecast, showing a slight increase compared to the previous month, though remaining relatively subdued. Meanwhile, employment growth stabilized at the level registered in August.
3 weeks ago

Inflation stands still, while the MPC sits on the fence

MacroCompass October 2025 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago

Slowing wage growth increases pressure on interest rate cuts in Poland

August labour market data surprised with weaker wage growth, increasing the likelihood of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) cutting interest rates as early as October. Real wage growth, despite a slowdown, continues to support consumption and remains a key driver of Poland’s economic growth. Employment, however, remains stagnant, with no clear signs of improvement in the near term.
1 month ago

Inflation under control, public debt under scrutiny

We are back after the holidays with our monthly publication "MacroCompass" including: our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 months ago

Nothing but declines in the Polish labor market

July saw a pronounced slowdown of wage growth, contradicting the concerns we had speculated about a month earlier regarding a potential malfunction of the "wage brake". It turned out that the upward surprise observed in June was fully offset by the disappointing outcome in July — wage growth in the enterprise sector slowed to 7.6% yoy from 9.0%, falling short of the expected 8.6%. Employment data also unexpectedly underperformed, and we further identify a continuation of the classification issues observed in June.
2 months ago

Polish macro in summer hibernation

With limited domestic data, last week’s macro focus shifted to the U.S. and eurozone, where GDP and inflation figures weighed the expectations around policy trajectories. This week, Poland remains in a data lull, while markets look, yet again, to releases from the EU and U.S. economies – particularly trade balances, sentiment indices, industrial orders and manufacturing activity.