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Selected tag: labour market
1 week ago
Wage growth in Poland boosted by one-time bonuses
Wage growth in the enterprise sector edged up in March compared with February (6.6% vs. 6.1% yoy), coming in slightly above the consensus (6.3%). The upside surprise was most likely driven by bonuses in the mining and energy sections. Meanwhile, employment declined by 0.9% yoy, falling short of expectations (-0.8%).
3 weeks ago
Ceasefire takes tail risks off the table
MacroCompass April 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
A cold February in the Polish labour market
Wage growth in the enterprise sector remained unchanged in February at 6.1% yoy, significantly below the consensus estimate (6.6%). This provides strong support for our forecast for the current year (5.5%). Wage pressure is set to remain subdued, and any potential inflation rebound related to the conflict in the Middle East should not translate into stronger wage growth, given the weakening bargaining power of employees. In fact, the impact of the conflict on wages is likely to be the opposite due to slight deterioration of economic conditions. Meanwhile, employment declined by 0.8% yoy in February, in line with expectations.
1 month ago
A Pleasant Postcard from the Past
We are waiting for final CPI data for the first two months of the year (on Friday). We expect CPI to have risen slightly in February (from 2.1 to 2.2% yoy), but annual basket reweighing might have changed a lot.
1 month ago
Only good news from Polish economy
MacroCompass March 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 months ago
Strong deceleration in wage growth in Poland
In line with our expectations, the January wage data showed a pronounced slowdown in annual wage growth relative to December — to 6.1% yoy from 8.6%. The primary driver was a high statistical base from the previous month, reflecting substantial year-end bonuses. Employment declined by 0.8% yoy compared to a 0.7% decrease in December; however, this figure provides limited insight into underlying labour market dynamics, as the January reading is distorted by an annual revision of the survey sample by Statistics Poland.