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1 week ago
Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state
MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
3 weeks ago
Poland: wage and productivity growth aligned at last
In October, nominal wage growth decelerated from 7.5% to 6.6% year-on-year, bringing real wage growth down to 3.8% — broadly in line with the 3.7% yoy increase in real GDP in the third quarter, which serves as a proxy for productivity growth. This suggests that wage dynamics have moved into a range considered neutral for inflation (5–6% annually), effectively reducing wage-driven inflationary pressure. As a result, conditions are increasingly favorable for further monetary easing. In our view, the next interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) could come as early as December.
5 weeks ago
MPC to deliver final rate cut of the year
MacroCompass November - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
Continued softness in Poland's labour market indicators
September did not bring any significant surprises in the Polish labor market. Wage growth was in line with both market consensus and our forecast, showing a slight increase compared to the previous month, though remaining relatively subdued. Meanwhile, employment growth stabilized at the level registered in August.
2 months ago
Inflation stands still, while the MPC sits on the fence
MacroCompass October 2025 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 months ago
Slowing wage growth increases pressure on interest rate cuts in Poland
August labour market data surprised with weaker wage growth, increasing the likelihood of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) cutting interest rates as early as October. Real wage growth, despite a slowdown, continues to support consumption and remains a key driver of Poland’s economic growth. Employment, however, remains stagnant, with no clear signs of improvement in the near term.