Search results - Macroeconomic analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.

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Selected tag: monetary policy
1 week ago

Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state

MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 week ago

December cut is on the table

The Polish economy continues to enjoy strong momentum. Last week brought stronger-than-expected data from the retail sales, manufacturing, and construction sectors, along with a lower-than-expected inflation rate. Profit margins of Polish enterprises improved in the third quarter of 2025. This Goldilocks performance is likely to encourage the MPC to cut interest rates by another 25bps this week.
2 weeks ago

Inflation below the target and expectations opened the door to December rate cut

Breaking! According to the flash estimate, Poland’s CPI fell to 2.4% yoy in November, below the NBP’s inflation target (2.5%) and lower than market expectations (2.6%). The lower reading was driven by broadly distributed, small surprises across most price categories, while core inflation declined to around 2.7-2.8% yoy. The data increase the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) in December. Looking ahead to 2026, inflation is expected to stabilize near the target.
5 weeks ago

MPC to deliver final rate cut of the year

MacroCompass November - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
5 weeks ago

MPC set to cut rates after CPI undershot forecasts

This week, the most relevant event will be Wednesday’s decision by the Monetary Policy Council, which, in our view, will indicate a 25 basis point rate cut. The market consensus also anticipates such a move. In the core markets, the key releases will be the final PMI readings.
2 months ago

Inflation stands still, while the MPC sits on the fence

MacroCompass October 2025 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets