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Selected tag: monetary policy
8 hours ago
Poland's CPI close to the target, but core inflation causing concern
Inflation in Poland has entered the inflation target, or to be more precise, within its acceptable deviation range (2.5% ± 1%). According to the flash estimate, CPI fell to 3.1% yoy in July from 4.1% in the previous month. However, the reading surprised negatively. Nevertheless, in our opinion, inflation will remain close to the inflation target for a longer period. We assume it will fall below 3% yoy by the end of 2025.
2 weeks ago
The last month in Poland with hightened inflation
As usual, mid-month, we have received detailed data from the StatOffice on Poland consumer price inflation (CPI). The flash June estimate of 4.1% yoy was confirmed. What else interesting did we learn from today's reading?
4 weeks ago
A long-unseen surprise of higher inflation in Poland
According to the flash estimate, CPI inflation in Poland accelerated in June to 4.1% yoy from 4.0% in the previous month. The consensus forecast assumed stabilization of inflation at 4.0%. The chances of an interest rate cut at the July meeting of the Monetary Policy Council have decreased from a low level to an even lower one. However, this does not change the fact that by the third quarter of this year, inflation will reach the target level (2.5%).
4 weeks ago
Rates in Poland will be kept unchanged this week
The highlight of the week is clearly the MPC meeting. We do not believe it to be a high-stakes one and see the Council as unwilling to ease monetary policy now (as clearly communicated by several members), but the new projections will provide a framework and justification for future rate cuts.
1 month ago
Perfect conditions for rate cuts in Poland
Macro Compass June 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
1 month ago
Suprising presidential election results in Poland
The beginning of the week will be marked by analyses of the results of the presidential elections in Poland. This week the MPC will decide on interest rates, but we do not expect any changes. In the core markets, the beginning of June will pass in anticipation of the ECB decision on Thursday and the reading of US payrolls on Friday. On the way, the final PMI data in Europe and the US for May will be published, as well as the flash estimate of May inflation in the eurozone.