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Selected tag: monetary policy
1 day ago
Poland: One More Rate Cut Likely Before Year-End
The macro calendar this week is full of noteworthy data releases from Poland. We started today with an upside revision of CPI inflation for September (from 2.8 to 2.9% y/y). Tomorrow the core inflation reading will be published. On Wednesday, the latest consumer sentiment is scheduled, followed on Thursday by figures on industrial production, construction output, and labor market data for September.
1 week ago
Inflation under control, public debt under scrutiny
We are back after the holidays with our monthly publication "MacroCompass" including: our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 weeks ago
Entering a low inflation environment in Poland
The flash Poland's CPI reading for August was at 2.8% yoy, slightly lower than expected. Month-on-month prices fell by 0.1%. A decline in core inflation to approximately 3.1% yoy helped significantly here, suggesting a continuation of disinflationary trend in this category. In our view, we are entering a long-term low-inflation environment in Poland. These are excellent conditions for further interest rate cuts, the first should be at the September meeting.
1 month ago
Polish macro in summer hibernation
With limited domestic data, last week’s macro focus shifted to the U.S. and eurozone, where GDP and inflation figures weighed the expectations around policy trajectories. This week, Poland remains in a data lull, while markets look, yet again, to releases from the EU and U.S. economies – particularly trade balances, sentiment indices, industrial orders and manufacturing activity.
1 month ago
Poland's CPI close to the target, but core inflation causing concern
Inflation in Poland has entered the inflation target, or to be more precise, within its acceptable deviation range (2.5% ± 1%). According to the flash estimate, CPI fell to 3.1% yoy in July from 4.1% in the previous month. However, the reading surprised negatively. Nevertheless, in our opinion, inflation will remain close to the inflation target for a longer period. We assume it will fall below 3% yoy by the end of 2025.
2 months ago
The last month in Poland with hightened inflation
As usual, mid-month, we have received detailed data from the StatOffice on Poland consumer price inflation (CPI). The flash June estimate of 4.1% yoy was confirmed. What else interesting did we learn from today's reading?