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Selected tag: monetary policy
15 hours ago
Lower-than-expected Poland inflation = interest rate cut in May
Another, but this time a small one but still, disinflationary surprise - the flash estimate of Polish consumer inflation (CPI) showed a strong drop in April to 4.2% yoy from almost 5% in the first quarter. Market expectations were at 4.3% yoy. This is next, sufficient argument for the Monetary Policy Council to cut interest rates at the nearest May decision meeting, in our opinion by 50 bps.
3 weeks ago
US tariff policy steals the show
Macro Compass April 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
4 weeks ago
Instead of a peak, we have a plateau - CPI in Poland surprised to the downside again
The peak of Poland's CPI inflation was supposed to be in March, but it has flattened out... According to the flash estimate, CPI in Poland remained at the level of the previous two months, i.e. 4.9% yoy in March, forming a solid plateau. Compared to the previous month, prices increased by 0.1% mom. The March result once again surprised analysts with a lower reading (expectations of 5.0-5.1% yoy), which only strengthens the belief that inflationary pressure is weakening.
1 month ago
Tariff carousel pushes macro into the backseat
Macro Compass March 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
2 months ago
Tariffs on, tariffs off
Macro Compass February 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
6 months ago
Hawkish spring, dovish autumn
Macro Compass October 2024 - our macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets