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Selected tag: monetary policy
6 days ago
Rates unchanged, rating unchanged
Globally, markets will follow policy decisions of Fed, BoE, and BoJ. Domestically, we are waiting for Moody’s policy action (and we expect no change of rating) and August manufacturing figures, both of which are scheduled for Friday.
1 week ago
Farewell to rate cuts in Poland
MacroCompass September 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
5 weeks ago
Were Fitch to downgrade Poland’s rating, what would be the consequences?
The main event for the Polish macro calendar this week will be the preliminary Q2 2026 GDP estimate. We expect growth to have accelerated from 3.5% y/y to 3.9% y/y, driven by strong manufacturing and construction activity as well as solid retail sales. We believe investment, inventories, and net exports were the key growth drivers, while the contribution from private consumption remained relatively weak. Confirmation will have to wait until the end of August, when the second GDP release provides a detailed breakdown of growth components.
2 months ago
NBP’s Dovish Pivot
Last week, the NBP dropped a dovish surprise on us. Today’s calendar is empty, but the remainder of the week should prove more eventful. In Poland, attention will focus on the final inflation release and the government bond auction. In the core markets, the spotlight will be firmly on US data, including inflation, retail sales and industrial production. Investors will also be watching the new Fed Chair’s first appearance before Congress.
2 months ago
No pressure to change interest rates in Poland
MacroCompass July/August 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
3 months ago
Rising hawkish tide leaves the NBP behind
MacroCompass June 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets