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Selected tag: monetary policy
2 weeks ago
Only good news from Polish economy
MacroCompass March 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
The MPC will wait until March to resume rate cuts
MacroCompass February 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 month ago
Ten economic questions for 2026-2027
As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.
3 months ago
Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state
MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
3 months ago
December cut is on the table
The Polish economy continues to enjoy strong momentum. Last week brought stronger-than-expected data from the retail sales, manufacturing, and construction sectors, along with a lower-than-expected inflation rate. Profit margins of Polish enterprises improved in the third quarter of 2025. This Goldilocks performance is likely to encourage the MPC to cut interest rates by another 25bps this week.
3 months ago
Inflation below the target and expectations opened the door to December rate cut
Breaking! According to the flash estimate, Poland’s CPI fell to 2.4% yoy in November, below the NBP’s inflation target (2.5%) and lower than market expectations (2.6%). The lower reading was driven by broadly distributed, small surprises across most price categories, while core inflation declined to around 2.7-2.8% yoy. The data increase the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) in December. Looking ahead to 2026, inflation is expected to stabilize near the target.