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Selected tag: monetary policy
3 weeks ago
Inflation stands still, while the MPC sits on the fence
MacroCompass October 2025 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
3 weeks ago
A very exciting MPC meeting ahead of us
A light week in terms of economic data, but the MPC will keep us entertained. The October MPC meeting is setting up to be one of the most interesting ones in many months, because there is no consensus regarding its outcome. We believe that the Council will want to wait a month and resume cutting rates with more information (including the new staff projections) on hand.
4 weeks ago
Inflation has stagnated, the MPC has straddled
September flash reading of Poland's CPI surprised slightly to the downside, remaining at 2.9% year-on-year, below market expectations. The surprise stems primarily from lower food prices, while core inflation continues to decline very slowly. Today's data increases uncertainty about the timing of interest rate cut, although in our view, November remains the most likely date.
1 month ago
Poland: One More Rate Cut Likely Before Year-End
The macro calendar this week is full of noteworthy data releases from Poland. We started today with an upside revision of CPI inflation for September (from 2.8 to 2.9% y/y). Tomorrow the core inflation reading will be published. On Wednesday, the latest consumer sentiment is scheduled, followed on Thursday by figures on industrial production, construction output, and labor market data for September.
1 month ago
Inflation under control, public debt under scrutiny
We are back after the holidays with our monthly publication "MacroCompass" including: our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 months ago
Entering a low inflation environment in Poland
The flash Poland's CPI reading for August was at 2.8% yoy, slightly lower than expected. Month-on-month prices fell by 0.1%. A decline in core inflation to approximately 3.1% yoy helped significantly here, suggesting a continuation of disinflationary trend in this category. In our view, we are entering a long-term low-inflation environment in Poland. These are excellent conditions for further interest rate cuts, the first should be at the September meeting.