The full report in English is available here. Key takeaways are presented below.

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that Poland is Europe's undisputed growth champion. It has not only grown faster than the continent’s leading economies but has also displayed exceptional resilienceIt has not only grown faster than the continent’s leading economies but has also displayed exceptional resilience. Recessions have been both rare and shallow, while recoveries — including the rebound following the 2020 pandemic shock — have tended to be swift and robust. 

Poland’s success story is far from over. The global environment is now being shaped by three major races that are set to put wind in the sails of the Polish economy. Poland is uniquely well positioned to thrive in Europe’s new economic and geopolitical environment. In our view, this may become one of the defining investment stories in Europe over the coming decade.

Poland is one of the only major economies converging to United States

GDP per capita, purchasing power parity, as % of US. Dotted lines signify IMF forecast

Source: IMF (WEO 2025) via Macrobond, Pekao Research

Europe's rearmament cycle

Europe faces a challenging world marked by Russia’s aggression, intensifying US-China rivalry, persistent instability in the Middle East and growing uncertainty along its southern and eastern periphery. As a result, European governments are increasing defence spending to strengthen deterrence, protect economic prosperity and reduce their dependence on external security providers. 

Poland is particularly well positioned to benefit from this trend. Its strategic location on NATO's eastern flank, large-scale military modernization program, and strong commitment to defence make it a natural hub for Europe's growing security architecture. Rising defence expenditure should support the development of Poland's defence sector while generating broader spillovers for manufacturing, technology, infrastructure, and investment across
the economy. 

Funding allocation from SAFE program on military spending in the EU

Source: European Commission. Pekao Research

The New Energy Race

The AI boom is emerging as one of the defining investment themes of the coming decade, and it is fundamentally an energy story. Data centers, cloud infrastructure, and AI training models require vast amounts of reliable electricity, reversing years of stagnant power demand across much of the developed world. As countries and companies race to build the infrastructure of the AI age, access to abundant, affordable, and secure energy is becoming a strategic advantage. 

Poland is already one of Europe's largest energy investment sites, with substantial additions to gas-fired generation, renewables, offshore wind, and battery storage already underway, alongside long-term nuclear ambitions. Combined with a relatively high degree of energy self-sufficiency compared with many European peers, this growing power base could make Poland
an attractive destination for energy-intensive investment, including data centers and AI campuses.

Number of GW of gas power plants in construction, pre-construction and construction plans, as of 2026

Source: Beyond Fossil Fuels - gas-tracker-tab, Global Energy Monitor, Pekao Research

Industrial Policy Comeback

Faced with China shock 2.0 and the need to secure critical supply chains, European policymakers are placing greater emphasis on domestic manufacturing and strategic industries. This shift is likely to translate into trade protection, industrial subsidies, infrastructure investment, and efforts to deepen European capital markets. At the same time, competitiveness, security and industrial resilience are gaining weight relative to decarbonization objectives.

Poland stands to benefit from this change in priorities. The country combines a large industrial base with skilled labor, competitive costs,
and established positions in sectors such as machinery, automotive manufacturing, electrical equipment, chemicals, and industrial components. As Europe seeks to strengthen its industrial capacity and resilience, Poland is well positioned to attract investment and capture a growing share of strategic manufacturing value chains.

Export in goods in Poland and Germany (2020 = 100)

Source: Eurostat via Macrobond, Pekao Research

Challanges

Of course, it is not guaranteed that Poland will be able to take advantage of these tailwinds and translate them into economic success. To do so, the country will have to overcome a number of challenges. We are nevertheless optimistic. What are those challenges?

• Aging population. This is often portrayed as a major economic threat, but the picture is more nuanced. Poland is also one of Europe's biggest immigration stories. The inflow of migrant workers has been among the highest in the EU and has so far more than compensated for the decline in the domestic labour force.
• Fiscal restraint. Poland cannot run a budget deficit of around 7% of GDP indefinitely. Public debt remains moderate by European standards, but it is rising quickly and will eventually force some fiscal consolidation. This should not be mistaken for an imminent threat. The Polish economy is growing rapidly and is likely to continue doing so, making the debt burden manageable and allowing the adjustment to be gradual rather than painful.
• Weak capital market. This factor limits access to long-term financing for some firms and investment projects. This is however likely to change as the economy becomes wealthier and demand for market-based financing grows. Efforts to build a more integrated European capital market could provide an additional tailwind.