Smooth summer sailing for Polish consumers
Retail sales slowed from 6.2% in June to 3.9% yoy in July. This result is close to the consensus estimate and the long-term average. The slowdown in sales can be attributed primarily to the expiration of the fuel price relief package and a less favorable arrangement of trading days. Polish consumers remain in good shape, although retail sales may not be the best indicator of this.
Retail sales (real, % yoy)
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
In terms of overall momentum, the July reading isn’t particularly exciting – 3.9% is very close to the consensus estimate (4.5%), our forecast (4.1%), and the long-term average (4% yoy). There aren’t any major surprises in the details, but it’s still worth discussing the specifics of this reading:
- Fuel sales, following the expiration of the relief package, fell even more than we expected, from 9.8% to -0.2% yoy.
- Despite fairly cool weather, food sales proved to be quite resilient and grew at the same pace as the previous month (1.7% -> 1.5% yoy).
- Sales of clothing and footwear – where the weather effect is likely to have played a role looked weak, falling by 1.7% yoy after a 3.3% yoy increase the previous month.
- Sales of furniture, consumer electronics, and household appliances slowed from nearly 15% to 8.3% yoy, but readers shouldn’t be misled by these numbers – this is a good reading! The combination of a high base from the previous year and the previous month could have brought growth in this category down to zero. This positive assessment can be extended to sales of cars and auto parts.
Retail sales (detailed categories, real, % yoy)
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
Not much is happening in the retail sector, then. A month ago, when commenting on the positive surprise in the June data, we presented a fairly positive assessment of the Polish consumer’s situation. The July data do not change this assessment, although concerns regarding services consumption and the financing of consumption in the face of slowing real income remain valid. For now, we are maintaining our forecast of a slowdown in private consumption in 2026 and are awaiting detailed GDP data for the second quarter, which should shed a little more light on how consumers spent their money in the second quarter.
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