Poland’s industrial production: where statistical base meets harsh weather conditions
The frosty January left its mark on Polish industry – energy and heating proved to be among the strongest sectors of the freezing economy (+18.7% y/y); while sub-zero temperatures brought construction and assembly production to a halt (-12.8% y/y). The readings come as no surprise – after all, we had the coldest January in a decade.
The excellent figures of industrial output in December 2025 (+7.3% y/y) could have raised hopes that Polish industry would eventually break out of several years of real stagnation. However, January brought a demonstration of the power of the statistical base effect and buried those hopes (which we had warned about immediately after the publication of the December figures). The unadjusted industrial production series fell by -1.5% y/y at the beginning of 2026, and after filtering out seasonal factors, we saw a tiny increase of 0.4% y/y. However, taking a broader perspective, Polish industrial performance in January was almost 5% below the pre-pandemic trend (2015-2019).
Industrial production (index, 2019=100, SA, trend estimated in 2015-2019)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
Looking into the sectoral structure of industrial production, we can see a strong influence of weather factors. This is hardly surprising; after all, according to data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, this January was the coldest in a decade. As a result, the second strongest sector was energy and heating; even though declines were generally widespread and affected 21 out of 34 industry sectors. The palm for the highest annual growth rate went to the ‘other transport equipment’ manufacturing sector, i.e. rolling stock, ships, aircraft and military equipment. It turns out that, especially in the defence industry, even the January frosts had to give way to the heated conflict beyond Poland's eastern border.
Year-on-year dynamics of selected manufacturing sectors
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
As regards construction, following a 4.5% y/y increase in December, the consensus forecast pointed to a real decline (by -3.5% y/y). In our opinion, this forecast had been underestimated; given the exceptional cold weather, we expected a double-digit decline – and we were not mistaken. Construction in January 2026 contracted by -12.8% y/y (after seasonal adjustment by -10.8% y/y), while the monthly decline amounted to as much as -65.2% m/m, the largest since 2016. The sharpest decline affected civil engineering construction, i.e. roads and railways, which should come as no surprise – such works are carried out in the open air and are sensitive to weather conditions.
Construction dynamics (% y/y, constant prices)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
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