Strong deceleration in wage growth in Poland
In line with our expectations, the January wage data showed a pronounced slowdown in annual wage growth relative to December — to 6.1% yoy from 8.6%. The primary driver was a high statistical base from the previous month, reflecting substantial year-end bonuses. Employment declined by 0.8% yoy compared to a 0.7% decrease in December; however, this figure provides limited insight into underlying labour market dynamics, as the January reading is distorted by an annual revision of the survey sample by Statistics Poland.
Average wage in the enterprise sector increased by 6.1% yoy in January, down from 8.6% yoy in December. The outturn was slightly below our forecast (6.4%) and represented a significant downside surprise relative to the market consensus (7.2%). The sources of this surprise were largely identifiable prior to the release. December 2025 generated a very high base for the January reading due to generous year-end bonuses and supplementary payments, primarily in transportation, energy production, and agriculture.
In effect, the January outcome largely reflected the scale of December’s bonus payouts, as these directly determined the subsequent moderation in annual wage growth. Our baseline assumption was that December bonuses were robust, supported by the improved financial standing of domestic enterprises, as evidenced by rising profit margins. At the same time, in the current macroeconomic environment — characterised by persistent uncertainty, easing wage pressures, and inflation returning to target — employers appear less inclined to commit to permanent wage increases at the start of the year. This context favours the use of one-off bonus payments rather than structural base pay adjustments.
The relatively modest increase in the statutory minimum wage compared to the previous year may also have contributed to the January downside surprise. While the precise magnitude of this effect is difficult to quantify, we assess it as limited, given the relatively small share of minimum-wage earners within the enterprise sector. Notably, retail trade was the only sector to record a seasonally adjusted monthly increase in wages, potentially reflecting a higher concentration of minimum-wage employees in that segment.
Today’s release provides strong support for our baseline projection for 2026, which diverges materially from the prevailing consensus. We expect average annual wage growth to moderate to approximately 5.5% in 2026, reflecting subdued labour demand and the associated erosion of employees’ bargaining power.
Decomposition of the mom change in seasonally adjusted wage growth (percentage points, mom)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
Average employment in the enterprise sector declined by 0.8% yoy in January, compared with a 0.7% contraction in December. However, January readings are of limited diagnostic value for assessing labour market conditions. This is due to the annual revision of the enterprise sample conducted by Statistics Poland, which tends to generate sizeable statistical shifts in the employment series. Consequently, the reported month-on-month decline of 10 thousand positions in January should not be interpreted as a sudden deterioration in Poland’s labour market fundamentals, but rather as a statistical fluctuation resulting from methodological factors.
Change in employment in January of the given year (thousands of jobs mom)
Source: Statistics Poland, Pekao Research
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