Economic news

• INFLATION: By falling from 2.4% yoy in December to 2.2% yoy in January, CPI surprised to the upside (consensus: 1.9% yoy). This is by no means a final result – the annual change in CPI weights might lead to a revision in either direction (the previous year’s outsized revision is a template for a radical scenario), but several conclusions will stick. First, the surprise comes down mainly to noncore items (food and energy). Second, core inflation fell according to plan (to ca. 2.5% yoy). Third, this supports the forecast of a 25 bps rate cut in March. A more detailed comment on the data can be found here.
• GROWTH: According to the flash estimate, Polish GDP rose by 4% yoy n.s.a. and 1.0% qoq s.a., Statistics Poland said. This does not come as a surprise, since the figure is at the lower band of estimates based on annual figures published two weeks prior. Additional details will be published at the end of the month. 
• RATES: Several MPC members (Kotecki, Litwiniuk, Wnorowski and the governor himself) had very similar public statements last week, all consistent with the NBP governor’s press conference after the February MPC meeting. The current consensus within the Council seems to have several pillars: inflation will drop below 2.5% this year; March meeting is a good time to resume cutting rates and cut them by 25 bps; the Council sees 3.5% as the terminal rate for Poland. These statements all predate the preliminary estimate of January inflation, but we do not see it as a gamechanger. The NBP’s latest forecasts were a tad closer to the mark than private consensus.  
• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: Current account deficit widened a bit more than anticipated in late 2025 – from EUR 500m in November to EUR 1.7 bn in December. This changes little for overall trends: trade and current account balances bottomed out. Notably, in December exports growth surged to a 3-year high (10% yoy). 
• LABOR MARKET: Broader measure of wage growth surged to 8.5% yoy in Q4, Statistics Poland said. This stands in contrast with the much more benign picture painted by enterprise sector wage growth. We decided to dig a little deeper into the data – see the next section. In addition, the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Policy informed that unemployment rose from 5.7 to 6.0% in January, in line with consensus and seasonal patterns. 
• DEBT: There were two bond auctions last week: one by the Ministry of Finance and one by BGK. Both seem to be a smashing success. BGK sold FPC-series bonds worth PLN 4.1 bn. The Ministry of Finance’s sale attracted huge demand (PLN 26 bn – one of the highest in record), which allowed the MoF to sell more than PLN 13 bn worth of POLGBs. In general, the previous couple of months have seen a steady increase in both bond supply and demand (the average demand on auctions rose to 17 bn in the previous six months). At the end of the week the Ministry had 33% of its financing needs fulfilled.  
   

Wages in the National Economy Surprised to the Upside

Last week, data on average wage in the national economy for the fourth quarter of last year were released. In contrast to the enterprise sector wage statistics that we typically comment on – which capture wage developments for approximately 60% of total employment – the national economy data cover the entire employed population and therefore provide a more comprehensive and accurate depiction of Poland’s labor market conditions. 
The data indicate that the average gross wage in Q4 2025 amounted to nearly PLN 9,200, representing an annual increase of 8.5%. This growth rate is markedly higher than would have been inferred from enterprise sector data, where wage growth stood at 7.5% yoy in Q4 2025, unchanged from Q3 2025. We had expected a similar reading in the national economy aggregate, particularly given that wages in Q3 2025 increased by 7.5% yoy. Instead, the Q4 data point to an acceleration in wage growth by a full 1 percentage point. Consequently, wage growth outside the enterprise sector (i.e. small enterprises, public administration and some sectors such as finance & professional services) must have risen to approximately 11% yoy.

Wage growth (% yoy)

Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research

What is the reason for this divergence? At this stage, it is difficult to provide a definitive answer. The national economy wage data are less granular, as they do not provide a sectoral breakdown and are published on a quarterly basis without monthly detail. As such, we can only formulate tentative hypotheses.
We know that December 2025 delivered an upside surprise in the enterprise sector in terms of year-end bonus payments. Enterprise sector data showed a 1.5 percentage point increase in annual wage growth relative to November, reflecting elevated bonus payouts. It is plausible that generous year-end bonuses contributed even more strongly to aggregate wage growth across the national economy, particularly in light of visibly improving corporate margins. Nonetheless, in our view, this factor alone does not fully account for the magnitude of the surprise in the national economy data.
The forthcoming January corporate sector wage data, scheduled for release this Thursday, should help clarify whether the Q4 reading represents a one-off spike driven by bonus payments or signals more persistent wage pressure. We will be looking for a pronounced decline in the annual growth rate that would confirm the temporary nature of the “8%-plus” print.
In light of these data, nominal wage growth in Q4 was 1 percentage point higher than suggested by the monthly readings. Naturally – and more importantly – real wage growth was also stronger. In Q4, real wages in the national economy increased by 5.9% yoy, nearly twice the historical average real wage growth rate in Poland (3.1%). This helps explain the robust performance of private consumption at year-end: households benefited from a dual tailwind in the form of inflation returning to target and accelerating nominal wage growth. Moreover, elevated wage growth likely provided the basis for stronger consumption estimates in categories not fully captured in monthly statistics, particularly services.

Wages and productivity (% yoy, real terms)

Source: Statistics Poland, Eurostat, Pekao Research

The historical average real wage growth rate of 3.1% is noteworthy for an additional reason. If one adds approximately 1 percentage point of average employment growth, the sum approaches 4%—which corresponds closely to Poland’s average GDP growth over the same period (abstracting from minor differences between CPI and the GDP deflator). This is not coincidental: over the long term, wage growth and productivity growth should converge.
In the short term, however, deviations between wages and productivity may occur, and the period 2020–2025 has been characterized by particularly elevated volatility in this relationship. While productivity growth in Poland in recent quarters has been relatively robust – exceeding the average observed in the previous decade – the acceleration in wage growth recorded in Q4 2025 appears anomalous.

Financial market update

No major changes on the FX market – EUR-PLN remained stuck in the 4.20-22 range last week. While gravity seems to continue to favor the appreciation of the zloty, a sustained break of 4.20/EUR is difficult in the current circumstances. If this could not be achieved when risk appetite in the markets was higher, it is even more problematic today, when the markets are volatile and uncertain. The downward trend in interest rates continued on the FI market – new cyclical lows were set for all key nodes of the IRS curve, and the yield on 10-year SPWs fell below 5% for the first time in almost four (!) years. More importantly, the recent wave of declines in SPW yields was accompanied by a slight narrowing of ASW spreads, which remain relatively high (60 for the 5Y tenor, 85 for the 10Y). Sentiment towards Polish securities is very  favorable, as can be seen in subsequent SPW auctions. This week (on Wednesday), another such auction should confirm this. Data from the domestic economy should also be important for the markets, with particular attention paid to wage growth in January.