9 hours ago
Only good news from Polish economy
MacroCompass March 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 days ago
Poland’s MPC to cut rates on Wednesday
The key macroeconomic event will be Wednesday’s interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Council. We expect a 25bp rate cut, in line with the market consensus.
1 week ago
Winter disrupted Poles’ shopping patterns
Unlike industrial and construction production, retail sales did not disappoint. On the contrary – it rose by 4.4% yoy in January, which beat the consensus by 1 percentage points, though it still fell short of December's growth rate (5.3% yoy). Nevertheless, there are several surprises within detailed sales categories, suggesting that consumption patterns were disturbed by low temperatures. Strong retail sales for January indicate that private consumption is maintaining a solid pace of growth.
1 week ago
Global factors weigh on Polish markets ahead of Fitch rating decision
The last week of February will be uneventful in the Polish market, with the string of January real economy data already behind us. The Fitch rating agency will make a decision on Poland's rating on Friday. Meanwhile, core financial markets remain under pressure from geopolitics and potential consequences of Donald Trump's tariffs being rescinded.
1 week ago
Poland’s industrial production: where statistical base meets harsh weather conditions
The frosty January left its mark on Polish industry – energy and heating proved to be among the strongest sectors of the freezing economy (+18.7% y/y); while sub-zero temperatures brought construction and assembly production to a halt (-12.8% y/y). The readings come as no surprise – after all, we had the coldest January in a decade.
1 week ago
Strong deceleration in wage growth in Poland
In line with our expectations, the January wage data showed a pronounced slowdown in annual wage growth relative to December — to 6.1% yoy from 8.6%. The primary driver was a high statistical base from the previous month, reflecting substantial year-end bonuses. Employment declined by 0.8% yoy compared to a 0.7% decrease in December; however, this figure provides limited insight into underlying labour market dynamics, as the January reading is distorted by an annual revision of the survey sample by Statistics Poland.