Ten economic questions for 2026-2027

As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.

Special Report | 10.06.2025

9 months ago

Poland's moment. From Rising Riches to a Smart and Resilient Future

For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, increasingly cited around the world as a model of successful transformation — and at times, even an economic miracle. This success is no accident, but the result of the sustained efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In our latest report, we highlight the country’s achievements to date and set out ambitious goals for the decade ahead.

Poland can only benefit from EU rearmament plans

Germany announced a debt-fueled infrastructure and defense package worth even 20% GDP. It seems like a watershed moment – weak domestic demand and tight fiscal policy in German has long been identified as a big problem for Germany and the euro area. Importantly, it will spill over to its main trade partners and Poland will benefit from higher external demand. In our view, European rearmament ensures that Polish GDP will grow at a 4%+ pace beyond 2025.

Economy in Focus | 19.03.2026

13 hours ago

Winter's grip on Polish economy eased somewhat in February

According to the data published today, industrial production rose by 1.5% yoy in February, while construction output fell by 13.7% yoy. In both cases, this marks an improvement compared to the extremely poor January. Nevertheless, the weakness in construction production, driven by weather conditions, will weigh on Poland’s economic growth in the first quarter. The delay in construction investment is one of the reasons why we decided to lower GDP growth forecasts for this year (from 4.0 to 3.8%).

Economy in Focus | 19.03.2026

14 hours ago

A cold February in the Polish labour market

Wage growth in the enterprise sector remained unchanged in February at 6.1% yoy, significantly below the consensus estimate (6.6%). This provides strong support for our forecast for the current year (5.5%). Wage pressure is set to remain subdued, and any potential inflation rebound related to the conflict in the Middle East should not translate into stronger wage growth, given the weakening bargaining power of employees. In fact, the impact of the conflict on wages is likely to be the opposite due to slight deterioration of economic conditions. Meanwhile, employment declined by 0.8% yoy in February, in line with expectations.

Weekly | 16.03.2026

3 days ago

Poland gets an EM treatment

This will be a busy week, even though macroeconomic events remain in the back seat. In Polish macro calendar there are several highlights: March consumer confidence on Wednesday, industrial output and labor market data on Thursday, Moody’s rating decision on Friday.

Economy in Focus | 13.03.2026

6 days ago

Inflation from the world that no longer exists

This year's revision of the consumption basket weights did not significantly alter the picture of Poland's inflation – both January and February CPI remained at 2.1% yoy, while core inflation stays elevated, particularly in the services sector. The effects of higher fuel prices resulting from the Middle East conflict will become visible starting from the March reading. In the coming months, the Monetary Policy Council is expected to remain cautious and keep interest rates unchanged.

Weekly | 09.03.2026

1 week ago

A Pleasant Postcard from the Past

We are waiting for final CPI data for the first two months of the year (on Friday). We expect CPI to have risen slightly in February (from 2.1 to 2.2% yoy), but annual basket reweighing might have changed a lot.

Monthly economic update | 04.03.2026

2 weeks ago

Only good news from Polish economy

MacroCompass March 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets

Polish Economy: Macroeconomic Research and Analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.