Ten economic questions for 2026-2027

As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.

Special Report | 10.06.2025

1 year ago

Poland's moment. From Rising Riches to a Smart and Resilient Future

For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, increasingly cited around the world as a model of successful transformation — and at times, even an economic miracle. This success is no accident, but the result of the sustained efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In our latest report, we highlight the country’s achievements to date and set out ambitious goals for the decade ahead.

Poland can only benefit from EU rearmament plans

Germany announced a debt-fueled infrastructure and defense package worth even 20% GDP. It seems like a watershed moment – weak domestic demand and tight fiscal policy in German has long been identified as a big problem for Germany and the euro area. Importantly, it will spill over to its main trade partners and Poland will benefit from higher external demand. In our view, European rearmament ensures that Polish GDP will grow at a 4%+ pace beyond 2025.

Economy in Focus | 18.09.2026

18 hours ago

Polish industry suffered an accident in August

In August, industrial production rose by 4.3% yoy, 2 p.p. below the consensus estimate and even further from our forecast. What is most surprising is how unremarkable this reading is – the surprise cannot be attributed to a single sector, as the slowdown was widespread and very even. This leaves two Cs on the table: cycle and calendar. The latter option – making up for the August 15 holiday and good weather during the vacation season – is quite tempting as an ex post explanation. Looking at the bigger picture, trends in Polish industry are positive.

Weekly | 14.09.2026

4 days ago

Rates unchanged, rating unchanged

Globally, markets will follow policy decisions of Fed, BoE, and BoJ. Domestically, we are waiting for Moody’s policy action (and we expect no change of rating) and August manufacturing figures, both of which are scheduled for Friday.

Monthly economic update | 09.09.2026

1 week ago

Farewell to rate cuts in Poland

MacroCompass September 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets

Weekly | 07.09.2026

1 week ago

Second time’s the charm: lessons from the latest GDP data from Poland

The NBP is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and we do not expect any changes. The Governor’s press conference the following day is likely to be more relevant than the decision itself.

Economy in Focus | 31.08.2026

2 weeks ago

Inflation rises on higher fuel prices, further narrowing room for rate cuts

Poland’s CPI inflation accelerated markedly in August to 3.4% yoy, but once again primarily driven by higher fuel prices, while food prices continued to decline. The rise in core inflation is nevertheless a concern. Today’s data further narrow the window for interest rate cuts.

Weekly | 31.08.2026

2 weeks ago

Poland’s fiscal policy and its repercussions in the spotlight again

With regard to macroeconomic figures from Poland, this week has ended before it’s really begun, with today’s reading of August CPI (3.4% y/y) and 2Q26 GDP (3.9% y/y, revised by +0.1 p.p. since the flash release). No more macroeconomic releases are scheduled for the upcoming days

Polish Economy: Macroeconomic Research and Analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.