1 week ago
Polish consumer still in play, though November was muted
After weaker readings in industrial and construction output, November growth of retail sales also disappointed, slowing to 3.1% yoy (consensus: 3.9%). Nevertheless, the structure of retail sales remains positive, with high sales of durable goods standing out. Private consumption continues to be the main driver of GDP growth, supported by improving consumer sentiment and disinflation. In 2026, investment is expected to join consumption as a key growth driver.
1 week ago
Poland: Temporary November weakness against a strong year-end backdrop
Polish manufacturing and retail trade delivered disappointing data for November, but only relative to the exceptionally strong readings in September and October, which had pushed expectations to unsustainably high levels. Underlying momentum in the Polish economy remains solid, however, and bodes well for 2026.
1 week ago
Polish economy in November: worse sentiment in industry, positive signals from the labour market
The last such interesting day before Christmas, with a full calendar of macroeconomic data, also brought a festive "package" of monthly data from the Polish economy. November data from the real economy surprised negatively, while the labour market delivered positive readings.
2 weeks ago
Santa’s coming this week with a bag full of data from Poland
Thursday this week is packed with a multitude of data for real economy in November. The most important is wage growth. We forecast a 6.1% yoy growth, slightly below consensus (6.3% yoy). Surprise to the downside should result in repricing of interest rate cuts in Poland on FI market. Another important data-point will be industrial production for the same month. We expect a weak reading of 0.5% yoy due to slow external demand for Polish manufacturing and unfavourable calendar. Consensus is more optimistic with expected growth of 2.9% yoy.
3 weeks ago
The MPC intends to adopt a wait-and-see approach for a while
It promises to be a quiet week, with an empty macroeconomic calendar dominated by decision meetings of major central banks. Investors' attention will be focused on the Fed. According to market expectations, it will cut interest rates by 25 bps.
3 weeks ago
Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state
MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets