2 days ago
No pressure to change interest rates in Poland
MacroCompass July/August 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
4 days ago
Poland: Markets Shift from Hikes to Cuts
This week's MPC meeting will be the main event for domestic markets. The Council has so far resisted calls for a policy response to the conflict in the Middle East, and subsequent developments have largely validated that decision. With concerns about disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz receding and June inflation surprising to the downside, markets have moved from pricing in the risk of rate hikes to speculating about the timing and scale of the next easing cycle. That said, the MPC is likely to view such expectations as premature and may be reluctant to provide a clear signal on future rate cuts at this stage.
1 week ago
Polish inflation undershoots expectations again
Poland’s CPI reading once again surprised downwards, confirming significantly weaker-than-expected price pressure in the Polish economy. Inflation slowed to 2.5% yoy in June, primarily due to non-core categories: fuel and food prices. At the same time, core inflation remains relatively stable, remaining at an elevated level of 3.0% yoy. As a result, the short-term inflation outlook is improving, but its structure still justifies the Monetary Policy Council's cautious approach and the continued holding of interest rates unchanged.
1 week ago
Not a lot of inflation is going to come out of this crisis
This week is all about inflation. On Tuesday Statistics Poland will publish flash CPI reading for June. It will show a sizable decline in inflation, from 3.1% to 2.7% yoy.
2 weeks ago
Polish retail sales move closer to normalization in May
In May, retail sales accelerated to 3.0% yoy, close to the consensus and our forecasts. The breakdown of the data also contains very few surprises. The structure of retail sales is normalizing after the significant fluctuations seen in the previous two months. Looking at the bigger picture, even if the impact of the Gulf War turns out to be less severe than feared just a few weeks ago, consumption is set to slow in 2026. The latest sales data are consistent with this outlook.
2 weeks ago
Poland’s wage growth surprises to the downside once again
Wage growth accelerated to 5.8% yoy in May, offsetting the weak reading recorded a month earlier (5.4%). The figure came in slightly below consensus (6.0%). The pickup in growth largely reflects factors anticipated by the consensus, namely the fading of a high reference base and payoffs in the mining sector. On the other hand, the main source of disappointment was lower-than-anticipated wage growth in manufacturing and construction. Meanwhile, employment growth stabilised at -0.9% yoy.