1 day ago
Polish consumers remain in high spirits
October retail sales data confirm good confidence of Polish consumers. Retail sales grew by 5.4% yoy, surpassing market expectations of 4.0%. Consumers remain in very good shape, with particularly strong demand for durable goods. This increases the likelihood that GDP growth in 4Q25 will reach the long-anticipated 4% yoy.
2 days ago
Another strong month for Poland’s industry
The October reading for Poland’s industrial sector confirms that it remains on a solid path toward further recovery. Output increased by a robust 3.2% yoy and 5.4% mom, remaining at highest level ever recorded, excluding last month’s reading. This marks a strong start to the fourth quarter and supports our forecast of an acceleration in GDP growth toward year-end and throughout the coming year.
2 days ago
Poland: wage and productivity growth aligned at last
In October, nominal wage growth decelerated from 7.5% to 6.6% year-on-year, bringing real wage growth down to 3.8% — broadly in line with the 3.7% yoy increase in real GDP in the third quarter, which serves as a proxy for productivity growth. This suggests that wage dynamics have moved into a range considered neutral for inflation (5–6% annually), effectively reducing wage-driven inflationary pressure. As a result, conditions are increasingly favorable for further monetary easing. In our view, the next interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) could come as early as December.
2 days ago
Macro finish of November - data from Poland in the spotlight this week
The last week of November will be packed with macro readings from the Polish economy - we will receive data from the labour market, industry, retail trade, and a flash estimate of CPI for November, which will fall to around 2.5% yoy. The long weekend (Thanksgiving Day) will begin in the US on Thursday, so the movement in financial markets will concentrate at the beginning of the week.
1 week ago
The most underrated expansion in history
In terms of economic data, this will be a lighter week. We kick off today with the official release of core inflation numbers from the NBP. The most important one (CPI excl. food and energy) will show significant disinflation in October. On Thursday Statistics Poland will publish consumer confidence indicators for November and on the next day the preliminary business sentiment data for the same period will be released.
1 week ago
Poland’s GDP growth surged to three year high, but…
Forecasts have once again hit the mark – GDP in Q3’25 rose by 3.7% yoy, following a 3.3% rise in the previous quarter. This is the best result for the Polish economy in this cycle. In our view, a closer look at the data reveals sustained high growth in consumption and a rebound in investment after a weak second quarter. Nevertheless, due to an unfavourable external environment, we are amidst the slowest phase of recovery/expansion in this century.