Ten economic questions for 2026-2027

As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.

Special Report | 10.06.2025

1 year ago

Poland's moment. From Rising Riches to a Smart and Resilient Future

For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, increasingly cited around the world as a model of successful transformation — and at times, even an economic miracle. This success is no accident, but the result of the sustained efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In our latest report, we highlight the country’s achievements to date and set out ambitious goals for the decade ahead.

Poland can only benefit from EU rearmament plans

Germany announced a debt-fueled infrastructure and defense package worth even 20% GDP. It seems like a watershed moment – weak domestic demand and tight fiscal policy in German has long been identified as a big problem for Germany and the euro area. Importantly, it will spill over to its main trade partners and Poland will benefit from higher external demand. In our view, European rearmament ensures that Polish GDP will grow at a 4%+ pace beyond 2025.

Monthly economic update | 04.11.2026

2 days ago

Rate hikes deferred until next year

MacroCompass November 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets

Weekly | 02.11.2026

4 days ago

Rates, rating, midterms: not all is set to change

A week featuring an MPC meeting lies ahead, with rates expected to remain unchanged. S&P is also set to review Poland’s sovereign rating at the end of the week. In core markets, attention will focus on the US midterm elections and the non-farm payrolls report.

Economy in Focus | 30.10.2026

1 week ago

Core inflation fell contrary to expectations

October brought a much sharper-than-expected decline in Poland’s CPI inflation, to 3.5% yoy. The biggest surprise came from core inflation, which fell below 3% yoy instead of rising as expected. The second-round effects of the energy shock remain almost entirely absent for now.

Weekly | 26.10.2026

1 week ago

Second-round effects in Poland's CPI are looming over horizon

Domestically, the flash reading of October CPI on Friday will be this week’s key macroeconomic figure. We expect a 0.4 p.p. fall from the September reading, as fuel prices fell 10% m/m. In the core economies, Fed and the ECB will be deciding interest rates – yet no hikes shall be delivered.

Economy in Focus | 22.10.2026

2 weeks ago

Retail sales slowed down, yet it accelerated

In September, retail sales (in constant prices) rose 3.3% yoy, following a 3.8% increase the previous month. At first glance, this is one of the weaker readings in recent months and the latest in a series of such readings. However, much of the volatility in sales in recent months has been driven by fuel prices, and September is no exception. Excluding fuel, sales grew at their fastest pace since June and have not slowed this year. The negative effects of the oil shock are evident in the consumption of services, not goods.

Economy in Focus | 20.10.2026

2 weeks ago

Industry plowed ahead in September, construction still disrupted by accounting problems

September was a mirror image of August. While industrial data turned out to be very strong (+4.6% yoy), the construction sector was a major disappointment. However, just as in July, this was due in part to “irregularities in accounting.” The 9% yoy decline should therefore be viewed with some caution. Nevertheless, the Polish economy still looks healthy and vibrant in 2026.

Polish Economy: Macroeconomic Research and Analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.