1 day ago
April inflation in Poland above forecasts – oil shock increasingly visible in the economy
April flash reading of Poland’s CPI surprised negatively, indicating an increase to 3.2% yoy from 3.0% in March. The biggest surprises concerned a shallower-than-expected decline in fuel prices, an increase in energy prices, and core inflation. The data suggest mounting price pressures across a broader basket in response to the current fuel crisis. The scenario of a prolonged crisis is slowly becoming the baseline. In our view, inflation will exceed 4% yoy by the end of 2026.
4 days ago
Poland: public spending like Sweden, budget revenues like Spain
This week will be rich in macroeconomic events, particularly central bank policy meetings, as both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are set to announce their interest rate decisions. Market attention will also focus on inflation data releases as well as preliminary first-quarter 2026 GDP readings. In Poland, investors will await Thursday’s publication of April inflation data. However, market dynamics are likely to remain dominated by developments in the Middle East.
1 week ago
Polish consumers voted with their wallets in March, but sentiment is deteriorating
Although retail sales were not as exuberant as we had anticipated (our forecast: +10% yoy), the March result (+8.7% yoy) exceeded consensus forecasts by a wide margin (3 pp.). Polish economy started the quarter in winter-related doldrums but ended it at a very high pace. In March, one-off and transitory factors boosted retail sales, just as we expected, but this feat will not be repeated. Therefore, the most recent retail sales print is not a good measure of the strength of the Polish consumer.
1 week ago
Wage growth in Poland boosted by one-time bonuses
Wage growth in the enterprise sector edged up in March compared with February (6.6% vs. 6.1% yoy), coming in slightly above the consensus (6.3%). The upside surprise was most likely driven by bonuses in the mining and energy sections. Meanwhile, employment declined by 0.9% yoy, falling short of expectations (-0.8%).
1 week ago
A spring boom in the Polish economy
March’s performance of the Polish economy is impressive: industrial production surged from 1.3% to 9.4% yoy, while construction output accelerated from -13.7% to 0.4% yoy. The March figures are influenced by a number of one-off factors, particularly the radical improvement in weather conditions and production stockpiling due to fears of shortages in components and raw materials following the outbreak of the Gulf war, but nevertheless, this is an excellent set of data from the Polish economy. Here are our thoughts on activity in industry and construction.
1 week ago
Poland's GDP revised upwards
After last week's GDP growth review for 4Q25, we are looking forward for more recent readings from the real economy, i.e. labour market, manufacturing, and retail. We expect robust growth figures.