3 days ago
Polish economy grows but doesn't accelerate
GDP growth in the second quarter amounted to 3.4% yoy – in line with the consensus forecast and only slightly faster than in the first quarter (3.2% yoy). The reading was somewhat weaker than our assumptions, especially when looking at the seasonally adjusted quarterly momentum: 0.8%. Even though this metric has lost some of its accuracy since the pandemic, it still paints a picture of a slow recovery of the Polish economy following the energy crisis.
5 days ago
Tune in for flash GDP and final CPI data
Short (public holiday on the 15th) but eventful week ahead of us. On Thursday Statistics Poland will publish detailed inflation data for July and the flash estimate of Q2 GDP. We forecast Q2 GDP to have accelerated to 3.5% yoy. Detailed inflation data will shed some light on the sources of the major upward surprise in July CPI (0.3 p.p.).
1 week ago
Polish macro in summer hibernation
With limited domestic data, last week’s macro focus shifted to the U.S. and eurozone, where GDP and inflation figures weighed the expectations around policy trajectories. This week, Poland remains in a data lull, while markets look, yet again, to releases from the EU and U.S. economies – particularly trade balances, sentiment indices, industrial orders and manufacturing activity.
2 weeks ago
Poland's CPI close to the target, but core inflation causing concern
Inflation in Poland has entered the inflation target, or to be more precise, within its acceptable deviation range (2.5% ± 1%). According to the flash estimate, CPI fell to 3.1% yoy in July from 4.1% in the previous month. However, the reading surprised negatively. Nevertheless, in our opinion, inflation will remain close to the inflation target for a longer period. We assume it will fall below 3% yoy by the end of 2025.
2 weeks ago
The week ahead: quiet start, key data later
The week opens on a calm note, with Monday lacking major macro releases and investor focus turning to US–EU trade developments. Momentum will build midweek with the Fed’s rate decision and U.S. labor market data on Friday, while in Poland, Thursday’s flash CPI reading could mark the start of a sustained return to the target range, with inflation likely falling below 3% y/y in July.
3 weeks ago
June retail sales disappointed, but the outlook for consumption remains positive
The monthly data package from Poland's real economy was complemented by a weak retail sales reading. June's 2.2% year-on-year increase was a disappointing result, significantly below market expectations (4.1% yoy). GDP growth in the second quarter doesn't look to exceed 3.5% yoy. However, the outlook for consumption remains moderately positive.