2 days ago
Poland’s CPI hit 4.0%. Fuel prices once again the main driver of price growth
Poland’s CPI inflation accelerated to 4.0% yoy in September – with no surprise, the increase was driven primarily by fuel prices. At the same time, there are emerging signs of rising food and other energy prices, increasing the risk that the energy shock will spill over more broadly into the economy. Inflation is likely to accelerate further in the coming months, heading towards 4.5% yoy by year-end.
4 days ago
Poland's CPI set to reach 4%
An interesting week ahead with Poland’s inflation reading coming on Wednesday (our forecast: 4.0-4.1% yoy). In the core markets, Friday’s data on US payrolls and eurozone inflation will be the most relevant.
1 week ago
August sun failed to heat consumption up
In August, retail sales grew at almost exactly the same rate as in July (3.8% vs. 3.9% yoy). The details of the report do not reveal many surprises. Overall, the August retail sales figure is in line with trends from the past few years. We know, of course, that consumers have cut back on spending this year in response to an unexpected decline in the purchasing power of their incomes, but this must have affected services, not goods.
1 week ago
Wage rollercoaster in Poland loses momentum in August
Another month, another surprise in wage data. This time, the wage rollercoaster swung to the downside, with wage growth slowing to 5.6% yoy, almost 1 percentage point below the consensus forecast (6.5%). The forecasting error appears to have been largely driven by an underestimation of the elevated base created by one-off payments in mining and forestry a month earlier. At the same time, trade, manufacturing and energy production also surprised on the downside. Employment, meanwhile, remained stable at -0.8% yoy.
1 week ago
Poland’s rating cut – not entirely unexpected
Over the coming days, Statistics Poland is set to release data on retail sales and unemployment rate. Investors will also be assessing the implications of Moody’s decision on Friday to downgrade Poland’s sovereign rating. In core markets, attention will focus on a busy schedule of central bank speakers as well as the flash PMI readings. Meanwhile, developments in the oil market and news flow from the Arabian Peninsula are likely to remain firmly in investors’ spotlight.
2 weeks ago
Polish industry suffered an accident in August
In August, industrial production rose by 4.3% yoy, 2 p.p. below the consensus estimate and even further from our forecast. What is most surprising is how unremarkable this reading is – the surprise cannot be attributed to a single sector, as the slowdown was widespread and very even. This leaves two Cs on the table: cycle and calendar. The latter option – making up for the August 15 holiday and good weather during the vacation season – is quite tempting as an ex post explanation. Looking at the bigger picture, trends in Polish industry are positive.