2 days ago
News of Polish consumers’ death were greatly exaggerated (so far)
Retail sales surprised on the upside once again, rising 6.2% yoy (about 1 pp. faster than forecasted). After several months of volatility, retail sales have normalized in terms of both growth and structure. This bodes better for private consumption than we had anticipated a few months ago, although still needs to be weighed against this year’s decline in consumer purchasing power and the weakness in services consumption. We maintain our view that private consumption will slow this year.
4 days ago
It was a good quarter for the Polish economy
An acceleration in manufacturing and a rebound in construction and assembly output following the cold spell in the first months of the year gave us the fastest growth in industrial and construction output in over four years – up 3.7% qoq. June itself was merely the culmination of a strong quarter, though it naturally brought solid increases in output. We estimate that in the second quarter of this year, GDP accelerated to 3.8% yoy.
4 days ago
Manufacturing drives wages acceleration in Poland
Wage growth unexpectedly accelerated to 5.9% yoy in June, following May’s increase (5.8%) that had been largely driven by one-off factors. The reading came in well above the consensus forecast (5.5%). The acceleration was entirely attributable to a sharp increase in wages in manufacturing, which alone added around 0.5 percentage points to the headline figure. Meanwhile, employment growth remained stable at -0.9% yoy.
4 days ago
State budget after 1H26: not great, not terrible
By accident of calendar, almost all monthly data from the Polish economy are due this week. We’ll be a bit busy, then. Elsewhere, the most important events of the week are the ECB Governing Council meeting (no hike; on Thursday) and flash PMIs for July (on Friday).
1 week ago
NBP’s Dovish Pivot
Last week, the NBP dropped a dovish surprise on us. Today’s calendar is empty, but the remainder of the week should prove more eventful. In Poland, attention will focus on the final inflation release and the government bond auction. In the core markets, the spotlight will be firmly on US data, including inflation, retail sales and industrial production. Investors will also be watching the new Fed Chair’s first appearance before Congress.
2 weeks ago
No pressure to change interest rates in Poland
MacroCompass July/August 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets