3 days ago
August sun failed to heat consumption up
In August, retail sales grew at almost exactly the same rate as in July (3.8% vs. 3.9% yoy). The details of the report do not reveal many surprises. Overall, the August retail sales figure is in line with trends from the past few years. We know, of course, that consumers have cut back on spending this year in response to an unexpected decline in the purchasing power of their incomes, but this must have affected services, not goods.
4 days ago
Wage rollercoaster in Poland loses momentum in August
Another month, another surprise in wage data. This time, the wage rollercoaster swung to the downside, with wage growth slowing to 5.6% yoy, almost 1 percentage point below the consensus forecast (6.5%). The forecasting error appears to have been largely driven by an underestimation of the elevated base created by one-off payments in mining and forestry a month earlier. At the same time, trade, manufacturing and energy production also surprised on the downside. Employment, meanwhile, remained stable at -0.8% yoy.
4 days ago
Poland’s rating cut – not entirely unexpected
Over the coming days, Statistics Poland is set to release data on retail sales and unemployment rate. Investors will also be assessing the implications of Moody’s decision on Friday to downgrade Poland’s sovereign rating. In core markets, attention will focus on a busy schedule of central bank speakers as well as the flash PMI readings. Meanwhile, developments in the oil market and news flow from the Arabian Peninsula are likely to remain firmly in investors’ spotlight.
1 week ago
Polish industry suffered an accident in August
In August, industrial production rose by 4.3% yoy, 2 p.p. below the consensus estimate and even further from our forecast. What is most surprising is how unremarkable this reading is – the surprise cannot be attributed to a single sector, as the slowdown was widespread and very even. This leaves two Cs on the table: cycle and calendar. The latter option – making up for the August 15 holiday and good weather during the vacation season – is quite tempting as an ex post explanation. Looking at the bigger picture, trends in Polish industry are positive.
1 week ago
Rates unchanged, rating unchanged
Globally, markets will follow policy decisions of Fed, BoE, and BoJ. Domestically, we are waiting for Moody’s policy action (and we expect no change of rating) and August manufacturing figures, both of which are scheduled for Friday.
2 weeks ago
Farewell to rate cuts in Poland
MacroCompass September 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets