3 days ago
MPC to deliver final rate cut of the year
MacroCompass November - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
5 days ago
MPC set to cut rates after CPI undershot forecasts
This week, the most relevant event will be Wednesday’s decision by the Monetary Policy Council, which, in our view, will indicate a 25 basis point rate cut. The market consensus also anticipates such a move. In the core markets, the key releases will be the final PMI readings.
1 week ago
Inflation reading brings June in October
The flash estimate of CPI inflation in October is slightly below the consensus forecast (2.8% y/y vs. the expected 2.9% y/y). This means that inflation has returned to the level seen in June last year. However, the biggest surprise comes from core inflation which fell from 3.2% y/y in September to 2.9% y/y in October. In our opinion, today's reading determines that there will be an interest rate cut at the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Council.
1 week ago
Green shoots in Polish monthly macro data
The last week of October will begin quietly, with a calendar devoid of significant macroeconomic releases. The US, still grappling with the government shutdown, will miss many important data publications. For that reason, markets will focus on central bank meetings, including the ECB and the Fed, with the US market expecting a 25 bps interest rate cut. In Poland, the flash reading for October CPI will be released at the end of the week, likely confirming its stabilization below 3%.
2 weeks ago
Polish consumers still showing strength
After positive surprises in industry and construction, we got a slightly disappointing retail sales reading for September, which accelerated from 3.1% to 6.4% yoy, compared to the consensus of 6.8% and our forecast of 8% yoy. Nevertheless, the forecasting error does not stem from a deterioration in the sector’s economic conditions. The positive narrative about the Polish consumer still holds.
2 weeks ago
Polish industry returned from holidays in a bullish mood
The September figures from the Polish industry look outstanding. Industrial production surged by 7.4% yoy and 4.1% mom (s.a.), making September’s output the highest in history. While it’s important to approach the September data with caution, they fit the positive trend seen for several months like a glove. They also support our forecast of accelerating GDP in the second half of the year.