20 hours ago
Core inflation fell contrary to expectations
October brought a much sharper-than-expected decline in Poland’s CPI inflation, to 3.5% yoy. The biggest surprise came from core inflation, which fell below 3% yoy instead of rising as expected. The second-round effects of the energy shock remain almost entirely absent for now.
4 days ago
Second-round effects in Poland's CPI are looming over horizon
Domestically, the flash reading of October CPI on Friday will be this week’s key macroeconomic figure. We expect a 0.4 p.p. fall from the September reading, as fuel prices fell 10% m/m. In the core economies, Fed and the ECB will be deciding interest rates – yet no hikes shall be delivered.
1 week ago
Retail sales slowed down, yet it accelerated
In September, retail sales (in constant prices) rose 3.3% yoy, following a 3.8% increase the previous month. At first glance, this is one of the weaker readings in recent months and the latest in a series of such readings. However, much of the volatility in sales in recent months has been driven by fuel prices, and September is no exception. Excluding fuel, sales grew at their fastest pace since June and have not slowed this year. The negative effects of the oil shock are evident in the consumption of services, not goods.
1 week ago
Industry plowed ahead in September, construction still disrupted by accounting problems
September was a mirror image of August. While industrial data turned out to be very strong (+4.6% yoy), the construction sector was a major disappointment. However, just as in July, this was due in part to “irregularities in accounting.” The 9% yoy decline should therefore be viewed with some caution. Nevertheless, the Polish economy still looks healthy and vibrant in 2026.
1 week ago
Wage growth in Poland stubbornly below 6%
This time, the surprise in Poland’s labour market data was the absence of any surprise. Wage growth came remarkably close to the market consensus for the first time in a year, with average wages increasing by 5.9% yoy versus expectations of 6.0%. At the same time, employment declined by 0.8% yoy for the third consecutive month. It has been a long time since this data release looked so uneventful.
1 week ago
Our third attempt at 4% Polish GDP growth
An interesting week ahead – the focus will be on Polish monthly macro data (Tuesday and Thursday) and flash PMI readings for core markets (Friday).