3 days ago
Polish inflation undershoots expectations again
Poland’s CPI reading once again surprised downwards, confirming significantly weaker-than-expected price pressure in the Polish economy. Inflation slowed to 2.5% yoy in June, primarily due to non-core categories: fuel and food prices. At the same time, core inflation remains relatively stable, remaining at an elevated level of 3.0% yoy. As a result, the short-term inflation outlook is improving, but its structure still justifies the Monetary Policy Council's cautious approach and the continued holding of interest rates unchanged.
4 days ago
Not a lot of inflation is going to come out of this crisis
This week is all about inflation. On Tuesday Statistics Poland will publish flash CPI reading for June. It will show a sizable decline in inflation, from 3.1% to 2.7% yoy.
1 week ago
Polish retail sales move closer to normalization in May
In May, retail sales accelerated to 3.0% yoy, close to the consensus and our forecasts. The breakdown of the data also contains very few surprises. The structure of retail sales is normalizing after the significant fluctuations seen in the previous two months. Looking at the bigger picture, even if the impact of the Gulf War turns out to be less severe than feared just a few weeks ago, consumption is set to slow in 2026. The latest sales data are consistent with this outlook.
1 week ago
Poland’s wage growth surprises to the downside once again
Wage growth accelerated to 5.8% yoy in May, offsetting the weak reading recorded a month earlier (5.4%). The figure came in slightly below consensus (6.0%). The pickup in growth largely reflects factors anticipated by the consensus, namely the fading of a high reference base and payoffs in the mining sector. On the other hand, the main source of disappointment was lower-than-anticipated wage growth in manufacturing and construction. Meanwhile, employment growth stabilised at -0.9% yoy.
1 week ago
Poland macro data for May in the spotlight this week
This week will begin with a culmination of macroeconomic releases from the Polish economy – today we will receive May labour market data on employment and wages, construction output, and retail sales. In core markets, the main macro release this week is expected to be the PMI readings from European economies. Of course, investors' eyes will continue to turn towards the Strait of Hormuz.
2 weeks ago
Domestic growth drivers are propelling Polish industry
Industrial production rose by 4.1% yoy in May, beating consensus (2.5% yoy) and our forecast (3.4% yoy). The negative effects of the war in the Gulf are, for now, limited mainly to rising costs and reduced availability of components and raw materials in certain segments. Production itself remains strong. In our view, investment demand deserves much of the credit for this.