Ten economic questions for 2026-2027

As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.

Special Report | 10.06.2025

1 year ago

Poland's moment. From Rising Riches to a Smart and Resilient Future

For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, increasingly cited around the world as a model of successful transformation — and at times, even an economic miracle. This success is no accident, but the result of the sustained efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In our latest report, we highlight the country’s achievements to date and set out ambitious goals for the decade ahead.

Poland can only benefit from EU rearmament plans

Germany announced a debt-fueled infrastructure and defense package worth even 20% GDP. It seems like a watershed moment – weak domestic demand and tight fiscal policy in German has long been identified as a big problem for Germany and the euro area. Importantly, it will spill over to its main trade partners and Poland will benefit from higher external demand. In our view, European rearmament ensures that Polish GDP will grow at a 4%+ pace beyond 2025.

Weekly | 12.10.2026

5 days ago

NBP ready to hike, not necessarily in November

On Wednesday the Ministry of Finance is back on the market with a fresh sale of POLGBs. Macro releases from the Polish economy will also return on that day. Final CPI data will shed some light on what happened to core inflation in September, to be confirmed by the NBP on the next day.

Monthly economic update | 08.10.2026

1 week ago

ECB started, Fed joined, NBP will follow

MacroCompass October 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets

Weekly | 05.10.2026

1 week ago

NBP will hold rates steady this week

This week looks relatively quiet on the macro front. In Poland, the MPC meeting will be the key event, with interest rates widely expected to remain unchanged.

Economy in Focus | 30.09.2026

2 weeks ago

Poland’s CPI hit 4.0%. Fuel prices once again the main driver of price growth

Poland’s CPI inflation accelerated to 4.0% yoy in September – with no surprise, the increase was driven primarily by fuel prices. At the same time, there are emerging signs of rising food and other energy prices, increasing the risk that the energy shock will spill over more broadly into the economy. Inflation is likely to accelerate further in the coming months, heading towards 4.5% yoy by year-end.

Weekly | 28.09.2026

2 weeks ago

Poland's CPI set to reach 4%

An interesting week ahead with Poland’s inflation reading coming on Wednesday (our forecast: 4.0-4.1% yoy). In the core markets, Friday’s data on US payrolls and eurozone inflation will be the most relevant.

Economy in Focus | 22.09.2026

3 weeks ago

August sun failed to heat consumption up

In August, retail sales grew at almost exactly the same rate as in July (3.8% vs. 3.9% yoy). The details of the report do not reveal many surprises. Overall, the August retail sales figure is in line with trends from the past few years. We know, of course, that consumers have cut back on spending this year in response to an unexpected decline in the purchasing power of their incomes, but this must have affected services, not goods.

Polish Economy: Macroeconomic Research and Analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.