6 hours ago
Polish inflation slowed in May instead of accelerating – a significant upside surprise in food prices
The May CPI reading in Poland delivered a strong positive surprise, with inflation slowing to 3.1% yoy instead of accelerating to the market consensus of 3.7%. The downside surprise was driven in particular by lower-than-expected food prices and core inflation. The data suggest that second-round effects related to higher fuel prices remain limited for now. As a result, any discussion about potential interest rate hikes can be safely set aside, while the Monetary Policy Council is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode over the coming months, keeping rates unchanged.
4 days ago
Polish retail sales disappointed – both in general and in the specifics
Retail sales disappointed in April, rising by 1.3% yoy (consensus and our forecast: 3% yoy). The March and April readings are largely one-off events and should be viewed in conjunction. Nevertheless, April’s sales figures contain negative signals pointing to weak private consumption in the coming quarters. We expect this to be the main channel through which the oil shock will impact the Polish economy.
4 days ago
Risk premium raises the cost of capital in Poland
The final week of May will bring Poland’s CPI reading for May, we expect slight acceleration to 3.6% yoy. Financial markets are awaiting further developments regarding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
1 week ago
Polish economy returned to normality in April
In April, the Polish economy delivered results broadly consistent with our expectations, although we had been somewhat more optimistic about actual numbers. Industrial output slowed after a very strong March, while construction output continued to recover from the severe winter. In the months ahead, we expect industrial production to lose some momentum, whereas construction appears to remain on an upward path.
1 week ago
Poland’s wage growth reaches a five-year low
Wage growth decelerated markedly in April to 5.4% yoy, down from 6.6% a month earlier, surprising the market consensus but not us. This was the result of a combination of several one-off factors, which pushed the reading to its lowest level in five years. Meanwhile, employment maintained its pace of decline at -0.9% yoy.
1 week ago
Poland’s budget shows no breakthrough after April
This week will be rich in macro figures from Poland. Today April’s core CPI is being published; on Thursday – figures from the labour market and manufacturing.