2 days ago
The most underrated expansion in history
In terms of economic data, this will be a lighter week. We kick off today with the official release of core inflation numbers from the NBP. The most important one (CPI excl. food and energy) will show significant disinflation in October. On Thursday Statistics Poland will publish consumer confidence indicators for November and on the next day the preliminary business sentiment data for the same period will be released.
5 days ago
Poland’s GDP growth surged to three year high, but…
Forecasts have once again hit the mark – GDP in Q3’25 rose by 3.7% yoy, following a 3.3% rise in the previous quarter. This is the best result for the Polish economy in this cycle. In our view, a closer look at the data reveals sustained high growth in consumption and a rebound in investment after a weak second quarter. Nevertheless, due to an unfavourable external environment, we are amidst the slowest phase of recovery/expansion in this century.
1 week ago
MPC to deliver final rate cut of the year
MacroCompass November - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 weeks ago
MPC set to cut rates after CPI undershot forecasts
This week, the most relevant event will be Wednesday’s decision by the Monetary Policy Council, which, in our view, will indicate a 25 basis point rate cut. The market consensus also anticipates such a move. In the core markets, the key releases will be the final PMI readings.
2 weeks ago
Inflation reading brings June in October
The flash estimate of CPI inflation in October is slightly below the consensus forecast (2.8% y/y vs. the expected 2.9% y/y). This means that inflation has returned to the level seen in June last year. However, the biggest surprise comes from core inflation which fell from 3.2% y/y in September to 2.9% y/y in October. In our opinion, today's reading determines that there will be an interest rate cut at the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Council.
3 weeks ago
Green shoots in Polish monthly macro data
The last week of October will begin quietly, with a calendar devoid of significant macroeconomic releases. The US, still grappling with the government shutdown, will miss many important data publications. For that reason, markets will focus on central bank meetings, including the ECB and the Fed, with the US market expecting a 25 bps interest rate cut. In Poland, the flash reading for October CPI will be released at the end of the week, likely confirming its stabilization below 3%.