4 days ago
Smooth summer sailing for Polish consumers
Retail sales slowed from 6.2% in June to 3.9% yoy in July. This result is close to the consensus estimate and the long-term average. The slowdown in sales can be attributed primarily to the expiration of the fuel price relief package and a less favorable arrangement of trading days. Polish consumers remain in good shape, although retail sales may not be the best indicator of this.
4 days ago
Poland’s fiscal policy and its repercussions in the spotlight
Affirmation of Poland’s sovereign rating by Fitch has set the mood for the Monday session in the financial markets. There are scarce domestic macroeconomic readings scheduled for the upcoming week, so there are good chances that the optimism will remain present among investors. At the same time the government is going to continue works on a draft of a 2027 Budget Bill.
1 week ago
A display of strength in Poland’s labour market
July delivered a major upside surprise in wage growth, which accelerated to 6.8% yoy compared with the consensus forecast of 6.2%. A significant share of this surprise can be attributed to one-off factors, although some signals suggest that wage growth be stabilising above the 6% mark. On the positive side, employment also surprised to the upside for the first time this year.
1 week ago
Polish economy in July: strong manufacturing, weird construction
So far, July has been a mixed bag. Strong industrial production (+5.1% yoy) was accompanied by a very weak reading for construction output, which fell by 2.4% yoy. The former is in line with the trend, while the latter may have been a one-off if the issue of distorted accounting raised by Statistics Poland (GUS) was the dominant factor here. Overall, the Polish economy is in good shape.
1 week ago
Oil shock failed to make a dent in the Polish economy
The week is off to a slow start but will pick up pace towards the end. On Thursday Statistics Poland will publish labor market data for July (including a weaker wage growth print) and industrial output figures for the same period (we expect it to slow down from a stellar June). On Friday Fitch will publish its review of Polish rating and the chances of a downgrade are material, on our view.
2 weeks ago
Were Fitch to downgrade Poland’s rating, what would be the consequences?
The main event for the Polish macro calendar this week will be the preliminary Q2 2026 GDP estimate. We expect growth to have accelerated from 3.5% y/y to 3.9% y/y, driven by strong manufacturing and construction activity as well as solid retail sales. We believe investment, inventories, and net exports were the key growth drivers, while the contribution from private consumption remained relatively weak. Confirmation will have to wait until the end of August, when the second GDP release provides a detailed breakdown of growth components.