3 days ago
Santa’s coming this week with a bag full of data from Poland
Thursday this week is packed with a multitude of data for real economy in November. The most important is wage growth. We forecast a 6.1% yoy growth, slightly below consensus (6.3% yoy). Surprise to the downside should result in repricing of interest rate cuts in Poland on FI market. Another important data-point will be industrial production for the same month. We expect a weak reading of 0.5% yoy due to slow external demand for Polish manufacturing and unfavourable calendar. Consensus is more optimistic with expected growth of 2.9% yoy.
1 week ago
The MPC intends to adopt a wait-and-see approach for a while
It promises to be a quiet week, with an empty macroeconomic calendar dominated by decision meetings of major central banks. Investors' attention will be focused on the Fed. According to market expectations, it will cut interest rates by 25 bps.
2 weeks ago
Poland’s economy is reaching a steady state
MacroCompass December - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
2 weeks ago
December cut is on the table
The Polish economy continues to enjoy strong momentum. Last week brought stronger-than-expected data from the retail sales, manufacturing, and construction sectors, along with a lower-than-expected inflation rate. Profit margins of Polish enterprises improved in the third quarter of 2025. This Goldilocks performance is likely to encourage the MPC to cut interest rates by another 25bps this week.
2 weeks ago
Inflation below the target and expectations opened the door to December rate cut
Breaking! According to the flash estimate, Poland’s CPI fell to 2.4% yoy in November, below the NBP’s inflation target (2.5%) and lower than market expectations (2.6%). The lower reading was driven by broadly distributed, small surprises across most price categories, while core inflation declined to around 2.7-2.8% yoy. The data increase the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) in December. Looking ahead to 2026, inflation is expected to stabilize near the target.
3 weeks ago
Polish consumers remain in high spirits
October retail sales data confirm good confidence of Polish consumers. Retail sales grew by 5.4% yoy, surpassing market expectations of 4.0%. Consumers remain in very good shape, with particularly strong demand for durable goods. This increases the likelihood that GDP growth in 4Q25 will reach the long-anticipated 4% yoy.