10 hours ago
Lower-than-expected Poland inflation = interest rate cut in May
Another, but this time a small one but still, disinflationary surprise - the flash estimate of Polish consumer inflation (CPI) showed a strong drop in April to 4.2% yoy from almost 5% in the first quarter. Market expectations were at 4.3% yoy. This is next, sufficient argument for the Monetary Policy Council to cut interest rates at the nearest May decision meeting, in our opinion by 50 bps.
2 days ago
Investments in Poland started the year slowly
This will be a short week: May 1st and 3rd are an official public holidays in Poland and May 2nd is an unofficial one. Nevertheless, there are important macro releases scheduled for the week. On Wednesday Statistics Poland will publish flash CPI data for April and on Friday Polish manufacturing PMI will be released.
1 week ago
Polish retail sales posted a slight decrease in March
Retail sales fell by 0.3% yoy in March, slightly below forecasts that predicted an increase of 0.3-0.4% yoy. Last month, consumer behavior was influenced by two factors: late Easter, which reduced food sales (a transitory factor), and the rebound in durable goods sales. Therefore, this reading is seen as positive, a break from the general March gloom.
1 week ago
Disappointing Spring for Polish industry and construction
This year we can hardly find any data that surprised us positively. March hasn’t brought it either – the yoy increase in industrial production in March turned out to be 1 p.p. lower than forecast, which fits the long-term stagnation of the sector. Construction output has been even more disappointing, as it shrank by 1.1% (compared to the expected increase of 5.5% yoy). Downside risks to economic growth are therefore accumulating.
1 week ago
Solidly stable March in the Polish labor market
March was a quiet month for the labor market. Wage growth stabilized at 7.7% yoy, similarly to February's reading (7.9%), which in our opinion is a crucial signal for the Monetary Policy Council. Employment growth did not surprise either, stabilizing at -0.9% yoy.
1 week ago
Inflation in Poland: where are we, where are we going?
Coming back straight after the Easter holidays, the calendar of Poland macro data releases for March is bursting at the seams (labour market, industrial and construction output, PPI).
However, the most important thing for the financial markets still will be the US tariff statements. From the macro data, the March flash PMIs will probably show a deterioration in sentiment.