Ten economic questions for 2026-2027

As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.

Special Report | 10.06.2025

1 year ago

Poland's moment. From Rising Riches to a Smart and Resilient Future

For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, increasingly cited around the world as a model of successful transformation — and at times, even an economic miracle. This success is no accident, but the result of the sustained efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In our latest report, we highlight the country’s achievements to date and set out ambitious goals for the decade ahead.

Poland can only benefit from EU rearmament plans

Germany announced a debt-fueled infrastructure and defense package worth even 20% GDP. It seems like a watershed moment – weak domestic demand and tight fiscal policy in German has long been identified as a big problem for Germany and the euro area. Importantly, it will spill over to its main trade partners and Poland will benefit from higher external demand. In our view, European rearmament ensures that Polish GDP will grow at a 4%+ pace beyond 2025.

Economy in Focus | 13.11.2026

20 hours ago

Polish economic growth has peaked

According to a flash estimate, GDP grew by 3.5% yoy in the third quarter of this year. This is a slight disappointment, but all forecasters had anticipated a slowdown in GDP growth due to relatively weak high-frequency data, particularly regarding the construction sector. We do not have the details of the reading, but we suspect that investment is to blame, as it was heavily impacted by the weakness in the construction sector in the third quarter. The peak in GDP and investment growth is likely behind us, but further revisions may change the final figures.

Weekly | 09.11.2026

4 days ago

See you next year, the MPC says

The week starts slow, but will pick up the pace after the national holidays (November 11th). On Friday, Statistics Poland will publish the flash estimate of Q3 GDP and the final CPI data for October. The former will likely show a slight slowdown in economic growth, the latter will shed some light on the sources of the surprise in flash October CPI.

Monthly economic update | 04.11.2026

1 week ago

Rate hikes deferred until next year

MacroCompass November 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets

Weekly | 02.11.2026

1 week ago

Rates, rating, midterms: not all is set to change

A week featuring an MPC meeting lies ahead, with rates expected to remain unchanged. S&P is also set to review Poland’s sovereign rating at the end of the week. In core markets, attention will focus on the US midterm elections and the non-farm payrolls report.

Economy in Focus | 30.10.2026

2 weeks ago

Core inflation fell contrary to expectations

October brought a much sharper-than-expected decline in Poland’s CPI inflation, to 3.5% yoy. The biggest surprise came from core inflation, which fell below 3% yoy instead of rising as expected. The second-round effects of the energy shock remain almost entirely absent for now.

Weekly | 26.10.2026

2 weeks ago

Second-round effects in Poland's CPI are looming over horizon

Domestically, the flash reading of October CPI on Friday will be this week’s key macroeconomic figure. We expect a 0.4 p.p. fall from the September reading, as fuel prices fell 10% m/m. In the core economies, Fed and the ECB will be deciding interest rates – yet no hikes shall be delivered.

Polish Economy: Macroeconomic Research and Analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.