16 hours ago
The NBP's hawkish cut
Today’s macroeconomic calendar remains empty, with the U.S. market closed for a holiday. The focus returns to geopolitical developments (escalation of the U.S.-China trade conflict) as well as speeches by central bank representatives, including events within the framework of the annual IMF and World Bank meetings. Meanwhile, domestic investors will spend the third week of October analyzing macroeconomic data, including the CPI inflation breakdown for September and the balance of payments for August. The Ministry of Finance will conduct a government bond auction.
5 days ago
Inflation stands still, while the MPC sits on the fence
MacroCompass October 2025 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 week ago
A very exciting MPC meeting ahead of us
A light week in terms of economic data, but the MPC will keep us entertained. The October MPC meeting is setting up to be one of the most interesting ones in many months, because there is no consensus regarding its outcome. We believe that the Council will want to wait a month and resume cutting rates with more information (including the new staff projections) on hand.
1 week ago
Inflation has stagnated, the MPC has straddled
September flash reading of Poland's CPI surprised slightly to the downside, remaining at 2.9% year-on-year, below market expectations. The surprise stems primarily from lower food prices, while core inflation continues to decline very slowly. Today's data increases uncertainty about the timing of interest rate cut, although in our view, November remains the most likely date.
3 weeks ago
Polish consumers in good shape
This time, there were no surprises - retail sales slowed down exactly as economists had expected, from 4.8% to 3.1% yoy. The pace of August sales is therefore close to the average from last year and this year. However, the acceleration we anticipate in the coming months should be noticeable.
3 weeks ago
Poland’s Goldilocks Economy: Moderate Growth and Low Inflation
This week starts on a big note and is set to calm down afterwards. After today’s retail sales and business sentiment data Polish economy watchers will turn their attention towards M3 data set to be published in the afternoon. On Tuesday Statistics Poland will end the series of macro releases for August along with the publication of the latest Statistical Bulletin along with unemployment data. August brought another increase in unemployment. Question is – how big.