1 day ago
A display of strength in Poland’s labour market
July delivered a major upside surprise in wage growth, which accelerated to 6.8% yoy compared with the consensus forecast of 6.2%. A significant share of this surprise can be attributed to one-off factors, although some signals suggest that wage growth be stabilising above the 6% mark. On the positive side, employment also surprised to the upside for the first time this year.
1 day ago
Polish economy in July: strong manufacturing, weird construction
So far, July has been a mixed bag. Strong industrial production (+5.1% yoy) was accompanied by a very weak reading for construction output, which fell by 2.4% yoy. The former is in line with the trend, while the latter may have been a one-off if the issue of distorted accounting raised by Statistics Poland (GUS) was the dominant factor here. Overall, the Polish economy is in good shape.
4 days ago
Oil shock failed to make a dent in the Polish economy
The week is off to a slow start but will pick up pace towards the end. On Thursday Statistics Poland will publish labor market data for July (including a weaker wage growth print) and industrial output figures for the same period (we expect it to slow down from a stellar June). On Friday Fitch will publish its review of Polish rating and the chances of a downgrade are material, on our view.
1 week ago
Were Fitch to downgrade Poland’s rating, what would be the consequences?
The main event for the Polish macro calendar this week will be the preliminary Q2 2026 GDP estimate. We expect growth to have accelerated from 3.5% y/y to 3.9% y/y, driven by strong manufacturing and construction activity as well as solid retail sales. We believe investment, inventories, and net exports were the key growth drivers, while the contribution from private consumption remained relatively weak. Confirmation will have to wait until the end of August, when the second GDP release provides a detailed breakdown of growth components.
2 weeks ago
Beginning of August will be tranquil in Poland
Except for the Manufacturing PMI reading on Monday morning, there are no macroeconomic releases scheduled for this week. Global markets are waiting for Friday’s U.S. Payrolls report, and carefully assessing geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Furthermore, in this report we analyse the changing structure of the Polish mortgage market due to refinancing.
3 weeks ago
Fuel prices once again fuelled inflation in Poland
Poland’s CPI inflation accelerated to 3.0% yoy in July, as expected, mainly due to a rebound in fuel prices following the expiry of government protective measures and renewed geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher. Both headline and core inflation are expected to remain within the 3.0-3.5% yoy range until the end of the year. In this environment, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) is likely to remain cautious and postpone decisions on further interest rate changes until there is greater clarity regarding the inflation outlook.