Ten economic questions for 2026-2027

As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.

Special Report | 10.06.2025

1 year ago

Poland's moment. From Rising Riches to a Smart and Resilient Future

For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, increasingly cited around the world as a model of successful transformation — and at times, even an economic miracle. This success is no accident, but the result of the sustained efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In our latest report, we highlight the country’s achievements to date and set out ambitious goals for the decade ahead.

Poland can only benefit from EU rearmament plans

Germany announced a debt-fueled infrastructure and defense package worth even 20% GDP. It seems like a watershed moment – weak domestic demand and tight fiscal policy in German has long been identified as a big problem for Germany and the euro area. Importantly, it will spill over to its main trade partners and Poland will benefit from higher external demand. In our view, European rearmament ensures that Polish GDP will grow at a 4%+ pace beyond 2025.

Economy in Focus | 22.10.2026

1 day ago

Retail sales slowed down, yet it accelerated

In September, retail sales (in constant prices) rose 3.3% yoy, following a 3.8% increase the previous month. At first glance, this is one of the weaker readings in recent months and the latest in a series of such readings. However, much of the volatility in sales in recent months has been driven by fuel prices, and September is no exception. Excluding fuel, sales grew at their fastest pace since June and have not slowed this year. The negative effects of the oil shock are evident in the consumption of services, not goods.

Economy in Focus | 20.10.2026

3 days ago

Industry plowed ahead in September, construction still disrupted by accounting problems

September was a mirror image of August. While industrial data turned out to be very strong (+4.6% yoy), the construction sector was a major disappointment. However, just as in July, this was due in part to “irregularities in accounting.” The 9% yoy decline should therefore be viewed with some caution. Nevertheless, the Polish economy still looks healthy and vibrant in 2026.

Economy in Focus | 20.10.2026

3 days ago

Wage growth in Poland stubbornly below 6%

This time, the surprise in Poland’s labour market data was the absence of any surprise. Wage growth came remarkably close to the market consensus for the first time in a year, with average wages increasing by 5.9% yoy versus expectations of 6.0%. At the same time, employment declined by 0.8% yoy for the third consecutive month. It has been a long time since this data release looked so uneventful.

Weekly | 19.10.2026

5 days ago

Our third attempt at 4% Polish GDP growth

An interesting week ahead – the focus will be on Polish monthly macro data (Tuesday and Thursday) and flash PMI readings for core markets (Friday).

Weekly | 12.10.2026

1 week ago

NBP ready to hike, not necessarily in November

On Wednesday the Ministry of Finance is back on the market with a fresh sale of POLGBs. Macro releases from the Polish economy will also return on that day. Final CPI data will shed some light on what happened to core inflation in September, to be confirmed by the NBP on the next day.

Monthly economic update | 08.10.2026

2 weeks ago

ECB started, Fed joined, NBP will follow

MacroCompass October 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets

Polish Economy: Macroeconomic Research and Analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.