Poland's moment. From Rising Riches to a Smart and Resilient Future

For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, increasingly cited around the world as a model of successful transformation — and at times, even an economic miracle. This success is no accident, but the result of the sustained efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In our latest report, we highlight the country’s achievements to date and set out ambitious goals for the decade ahead.

Poland can only benefit from EU rearmament plans

Germany announced a debt-fueled infrastructure and defense package worth even 20% GDP. It seems like a watershed moment – weak domestic demand and tight fiscal policy in German has long been identified as a big problem for Germany and the euro area. Importantly, it will spill over to its main trade partners and Poland will benefit from higher external demand. In our view, European rearmament ensures that Polish GDP will grow at a 4%+ pace beyond 2025.

Economy in Focus | 13.11.2025

2 days ago

Poland’s GDP growth surged to three year high, but…

Forecasts have once again hit the mark – GDP in Q3’25 rose by 3.7% yoy, following a 3.3% rise in the previous quarter. This is the best result for the Polish economy in this cycle. In our view, a closer look at the data reveals sustained high growth in consumption and a rebound in investment after a weak second quarter. Nevertheless, due to an unfavourable external environment, we are amidst the slowest phase of recovery/expansion in this century.

Monthly economic update | 05.11.2025

1 week ago

MPC to deliver final rate cut of the year

MacroCompass November - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets

Weekly | 03.11.2025

1 week ago

MPC set to cut rates after CPI undershot forecasts

This week, the most relevant event will be Wednesday’s decision by the Monetary Policy Council, which, in our view, will indicate a 25 basis point rate cut. The market consensus also anticipates such a move. In the core markets, the key releases will be the final PMI readings.

Economy in Focus | 31.10.2025

2 weeks ago

Inflation reading brings June in October

The flash estimate of CPI inflation in October is slightly below the consensus forecast (2.8% y/y vs. the expected 2.9% y/y). This means that inflation has returned to the level seen in June last year. However, the biggest surprise comes from core inflation which fell from 3.2% y/y in September to 2.9% y/y in October. In our opinion, today's reading determines that there will be an interest rate cut at the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Council.

Weekly | 27.10.2025

2 weeks ago

Green shoots in Polish monthly macro data

The last week of October will begin quietly, with a calendar devoid of significant macroeconomic releases. The US, still grappling with the government shutdown, will miss many important data publications. For that reason, markets will focus on central bank meetings, including the ECB and the Fed, with the US market expecting a 25 bps interest rate cut. In Poland, the flash reading for October CPI will be released at the end of the week, likely confirming its stabilization below 3%.

Economy in Focus | 22.10.2025

3 weeks ago

Polish consumers still showing strength

After positive surprises in industry and construction, we got a slightly disappointing retail sales reading for September, which accelerated from 3.1% to 6.4% yoy, compared to the consensus of 6.8% and our forecast of 8% yoy. Nevertheless, the forecasting error does not stem from a deterioration in the sector’s economic conditions. The positive narrative about the Polish consumer still holds.

Polish Economy: Macroeconomic Research and Analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.