1 day ago
ECB started, Fed joined, NBP will follow
MacroCompass October 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
4 days ago
NBP will hold rates steady this week
This week looks relatively quiet on the macro front. In Poland, the MPC meeting will be the key event, with interest rates widely expected to remain unchanged.
1 week ago
Poland’s CPI hit 4.0%. Fuel prices once again the main driver of price growth
Poland’s CPI inflation accelerated to 4.0% yoy in September – with no surprise, the increase was driven primarily by fuel prices. At the same time, there are emerging signs of rising food and other energy prices, increasing the risk that the energy shock will spill over more broadly into the economy. Inflation is likely to accelerate further in the coming months, heading towards 4.5% yoy by year-end.
1 week ago
Poland's CPI set to reach 4%
An interesting week ahead with Poland’s inflation reading coming on Wednesday (our forecast: 4.0-4.1% yoy). In the core markets, Friday’s data on US payrolls and eurozone inflation will be the most relevant.
2 weeks ago
August sun failed to heat consumption up
In August, retail sales grew at almost exactly the same rate as in July (3.8% vs. 3.9% yoy). The details of the report do not reveal many surprises. Overall, the August retail sales figure is in line with trends from the past few years. We know, of course, that consumers have cut back on spending this year in response to an unexpected decline in the purchasing power of their incomes, but this must have affected services, not goods.
2 weeks ago
Wage rollercoaster in Poland loses momentum in August
Another month, another surprise in wage data. This time, the wage rollercoaster swung to the downside, with wage growth slowing to 5.6% yoy, almost 1 percentage point below the consensus forecast (6.5%). The forecasting error appears to have been largely driven by an underestimation of the elevated base created by one-off payments in mining and forestry a month earlier. At the same time, trade, manufacturing and energy production also surprised on the downside. Employment, meanwhile, remained stable at -0.8% yoy.