1 day ago
Polish economy started to slow down
In Q1’26 Poland's GDP slowed to 3.4% yoy, matching consensus, but coming below our rather optimistic forecast (3.8% yoy). At this stage, we do not know the details of Q1 GDP, but we assume the main reason for the slowdown was a sharp drop in construction investment caused by a harsh winter. These figures, in our opinion, were not meaningfully affected by the Iran war – we expect to see these effects in the coming quarters, though. In our view, Poland's GDP will rise by 3.5% this year and by 2.7% next year.
3 days ago
The global economy running on empty
MacroCompass May 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
4 days ago
Inflation outlook in Poland and its implications for interest rates
This week brings two major figures from the Polish economy: flash reading of 1Q26 GDP growth (our estimate 3.8% y/y, 0.2 p.p. above consensus) and the final CPI reading from April (flash 3.2% y/y). However, we believe that the key event for the markets will be MoF POLGBs auction on Wednesday.
1 week ago
Poland’s MPC will keep rates on hold
The macroeconomic calendar points to a relatively calm start to the week. In Poland, the key event will be the Monetary Policy Council meeting, which is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. In core markets, attention will focus on Friday’s non-farm payrolls release. Financial markets will remain in a reactive mode to developments emerging from the Persian Gulf.
2 weeks ago
April inflation in Poland above forecasts – oil shock increasingly visible in the economy
April flash reading of Poland’s CPI surprised negatively, indicating an increase to 3.2% yoy from 3.0% in March. The biggest surprises concerned a shallower-than-expected decline in fuel prices, an increase in energy prices, and core inflation. The data suggest mounting price pressures across a broader basket in response to the current fuel crisis. The scenario of a prolonged crisis is slowly becoming the baseline. In our view, inflation will exceed 4% yoy by the end of 2026.
2 weeks ago
Poland: public spending like Sweden, budget revenues like Spain
This week will be rich in macroeconomic events, particularly central bank policy meetings, as both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are set to announce their interest rate decisions. Market attention will also focus on inflation data releases as well as preliminary first-quarter 2026 GDP readings. In Poland, investors will await Thursday’s publication of April inflation data. However, market dynamics are likely to remain dominated by developments in the Middle East.