Ten economic questions for 2026-2027

As last year’s market and economic turbulences fade away, time has come to make up for setbacks and delays and to fulfill pent-up demand. The year 2026 should prove more favorable both for the global economy and for Poland. We expect Polish economy to expand by 4%, and an even stronger outturn would not come as a surprise.

Special Report | 10.06.2025

1 year ago

Poland's moment. From Rising Riches to a Smart and Resilient Future

For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, increasingly cited around the world as a model of successful transformation — and at times, even an economic miracle. This success is no accident, but the result of the sustained efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In our latest report, we highlight the country’s achievements to date and set out ambitious goals for the decade ahead.

Poland can only benefit from EU rearmament plans

Germany announced a debt-fueled infrastructure and defense package worth even 20% GDP. It seems like a watershed moment – weak domestic demand and tight fiscal policy in German has long been identified as a big problem for Germany and the euro area. Importantly, it will spill over to its main trade partners and Poland will benefit from higher external demand. In our view, European rearmament ensures that Polish GDP will grow at a 4%+ pace beyond 2025.

Monthly economic update | 09.09.2026

2 days ago

Farewell to rate cuts in Poland

MacroCompass September 2026 - our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets

Weekly | 07.09.2026

4 days ago

Second time’s the charm: lessons from the latest GDP data from Poland

The NBP is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and we do not expect any changes. The Governor’s press conference the following day is likely to be more relevant than the decision itself.

Economy in Focus | 31.08.2026

1 week ago

Inflation rises on higher fuel prices, further narrowing room for rate cuts

Poland’s CPI inflation accelerated markedly in August to 3.4% yoy, but once again primarily driven by higher fuel prices, while food prices continued to decline. The rise in core inflation is nevertheless a concern. Today’s data further narrow the window for interest rate cuts.

Weekly | 31.08.2026

1 week ago

Poland’s fiscal policy and its repercussions in the spotlight again

With regard to macroeconomic figures from Poland, this week has ended before it’s really begun, with today’s reading of August CPI (3.4% y/y) and 2Q26 GDP (3.9% y/y, revised by +0.1 p.p. since the flash release). No more macroeconomic releases are scheduled for the upcoming days

Economy in Focus | 24.08.2026

2 weeks ago

Smooth summer sailing for Polish consumers

Retail sales slowed from 6.2% in June to 3.9% yoy in July. This result is close to the consensus estimate and the long-term average. The slowdown in sales can be attributed primarily to the expiration of the fuel price relief package and a less favorable arrangement of trading days. Polish consumers remain in good shape, although retail sales may not be the best indicator of this.

Weekly | 24.08.2026

2 weeks ago

Poland’s fiscal policy and its repercussions in the spotlight

Affirmation of Poland’s sovereign rating by Fitch has set the mood for the Monday session in the financial markets. There are scarce domestic macroeconomic readings scheduled for the upcoming week, so there are good chances that the optimism will remain present among investors. At the same time the government is going to continue works on a draft of a 2027 Budget Bill.

Polish Economy: Macroeconomic Research and Analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.