1 week ago
Inflation under control, public debt under scrutiny
We are back after the holidays with our monthly publication "MacroCompass" including: our picture of Poland's economy, macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on financial markets
1 week ago
Rates in Poland will be cut this week
This week’s main event in Poland will be the MPC’s rate decision – we expect a cut by 25 bps. Other than that, the economic calendar will be dominated by readings from the core markets; NFP on Friday and final PMI readings in the first half of the week.
2 weeks ago
Entering a low inflation environment in Poland
The flash Poland's CPI reading for August was at 2.8% yoy, slightly lower than expected. Month-on-month prices fell by 0.1%. A decline in core inflation to approximately 3.1% yoy helped significantly here, suggesting a continuation of disinflationary trend in this category. In our view, we are entering a long-term low-inflation environment in Poland. These are excellent conditions for further interest rate cuts, the first should be at the September meeting.
2 weeks ago
Polish private consumption confirms its status as the dark horse of 2025.
Retail sales surprised on the upside, rising by 4.8% yoy. Notably, there was a strong outturn in durable and semi-durable goods sales. The year-to-date 2025 retail sales growth matches the 2024 average, but all signs point to acceleration later this year. Thus, private consumption remains the dark horse of 2025.
2 weeks ago
Poland’s Data Test Ahead: CPI, Retail, and Budget
Poland’s economic calendar kicks off this week with July’s retail sales data, where analysts expect a modest 3.1% year-on-year increase. Markets, however, are more focused on the days ahead: the flash CPI reading for August and the draft 2026 state budget, set to enter public consultations by month’s end. Globally, Friday will take center stage, bringing a wave of key inflation data, most notably the closely watched U.S. PCE figures.
3 weeks ago
Nothing but declines in the Polish labor market
July saw a pronounced slowdown of wage growth, contradicting the concerns we had speculated about a month earlier regarding a potential malfunction of the "wage brake". It turned out that the upward surprise observed in June was fully offset by the disappointing outcome in July — wage growth in the enterprise sector slowed to 7.6% yoy from 9.0%, falling short of the expected 8.6%. Employment data also unexpectedly underperformed, and we further identify a continuation of the classification issues observed in June.